Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US revenues and forecast sales of restaurants and eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on Gen Z diners
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on Gen Z diners, August 2020
- Opportunities and Challenges
- Reemergence
- Gen Z is rocked by high unemployment
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- Figure 3: Unemployment rate by age, July 2019-July 2020
- Cater to Gen Z’s activist interests
- Reach digital natives through delivery programs
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- Figure 4: Change in use of restaurant takeout and delivery, May 2020
- Recovery
- Long road to recovery for casual dining chains
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- Figure 5: Restaurant segment visitation, by generation, February 2020; May 2020
- Restaurants will need to tailor their drink menus for Gen Z
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- Figure 6: Dining out behaviors, by generation, May 2020
- Attract Gen Z consumers with MTO snacks, beverages, and treats
- Plant-based proteins are just another protein option for Gen Z
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- Figure 7: Dining out behaviors, eating more plant-based foods, among Gen Z teens and adults by gender and race/ethnicity, February 2020; May 2020
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Gen Z is a small but passionate generation
- COVID-19 will forever change Gen Z dining behaviors
- Restaurant marketing adapts to Gen Z
Gen Z Overview and Market Factors
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- Gen Z demographics
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- Figure 8: US population by generation, 2015-25
- Figure 9: Distribution of generations by race and Hispanic origin, 2020
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- Figure 10: Median household income, by age of householder, 2017
- Gen Z attitudes and behaviors
- Leading the way on sustainability
- Gen Z are super snackers
- The activist generation
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- Figure 11: Activism attitudes, June 2020
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- Figure 12: Issues consumers support, June 2020
- Few barriers between online and offline lives
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- Figure 13: Social media usage, at least daily, June 2020
- Gen Z is stressed as heck
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- Figure 14: Feelings about life, among Gen Z adults indexed against all adults, February 2020
Market Size and Forecast
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- COVID-19 upends the entire foodservice industry
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- Figure 15: Total US revenues and forecast sales of restaurants and eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 16: Total US revenues and forecast sales ranges of restaurants and eating places*, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 17: Activity comfort level, any comfortable, by generation, field date July 28-August 4, 2020
Market Opportunities
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- Restaurants respond to Gen Z’s activism with mixed results
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- Figure 18: “Burger King – Cows Menu”
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- Figure 19: Moe’s Southwest Grill email, “First Responder Burrito Donation,” April 15, 2020
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- Figure 20: Chipotle email, “Turn your spare change into social change,” June 19, 2020
- Chains learn TikTok and other Gen Z favorites
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- Figure 21: “KFC x Crocs. Not for human consumption.”
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Restaurants reach Gen Z through delivery
- Gen Z’s financial struggles will impact the restaurant industry
- Restaurants will lure Gen Z with plant-based burgers and mocktails
What’s Working
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- Delivery satisfies Gen Z diners at home
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- Figure 22: Change in use of restaurant takeout and delivery, May 2020
- Coffee is cool for Gen Z
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- Figure 23: coffee drinks ordered away from home, by generation, July 2020
- Figure 24: Gen Z AFH coffee drink consumption over time, January 2017-July 2020
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- Figure 25: Coffee LTOs launched in 2020
- Gen Z is growing up with plant-based proteins
What’s Struggling
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- The recession hits Gen Z hard
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- Figure 26: Unemployment rate by age, June 2019-July 2020
- Sober times for a sober generation
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- Figure 27: Dining out behaviors, by generation, May 2020
What to Watch
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- The future of Gen Z dining
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Gen Z adults visit LSRs over FSRs
- MTO snacks offer a bright spot in the foodservice industry
- Gen Z wants quality food fast and at low prices
- Plant-based menu items pique Gen Z’s interest
Restaurant Visitation
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- The convenience and low prices of LSRs appeal to teens
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- Figure 28: Restaurant visitation, among Gen Z teens and adults, February 2020; May 2020
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- Figure 29: Restaurant decision maker, among Gen Z teens, February 2020
- Lower FSR visitation among Gen Z adults indicates issues for chains
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- Figure 30: Restaurant visitation, by generation, February 2020; May 2020
- Gen Z women visit a variety of restaurants
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- Figure 31: Restaurant visitation, Among Gen Z Teens by gender, February 2020; May 2020
- Figure 32: Restaurant visitation, among Gen Z adults by gender, February 2020; May 2020
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- Figure 33: Dining out daypart frequency prior to COVID-19, once per week or more often, among Gen Z adults, May 2020
Reasons for Dining Out
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- Social occasions drive restaurant visitation
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- Figure 34: Reasons for dining out, among Gen Z teens and adults, February 2020; May 2020
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- Figure 35: Reasons for dining out, by generation, May 2020
Dining Out Daypart Occasion Frequency
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- Gen Z consumers are snackers
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- Figure 36: Dining out daypart frequency, among Gen Z teens, February 2020
- Figure 37: Dining out daypart frequency prior to COVID-19, among Gen Z adults, May 2020
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- Figure 38: Dining out daypart frequency prior to COVID-19, by generation, once a week or more often, May 2020
- Black and Hispanic Gen Z teens are frequent restaurant visitors
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- Figure 39: Dining out daypart frequency prior to COVID-19, once a week or more often, by Gen Z teens and race/ethnicity, May 2020
Important Restaurant Factors
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- Gen Z has a need for speed
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- Figure 40: Important restaurant factors, any importance, among Gen Z teens, February 2020
- Figure 41: Important restaurant factors, any importance, by generation, May 2020
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- Figure 42: Important restaurant factors, any importance, by Gen Z adults and HHI, May 2020
Restaurant Value Definition
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- Value is a dance of quality, price and service
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- Figure 43: Restaurant value definition, any rank, among Gen Z teens and adults, February 2020; May 2020
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- Figure 44: Restaurant value definition, any rank, by generation, May 2020
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- Figure 45: Restaurant value definition, any rank, among Gen Z adults by gender, May 2020
- Loyalty programs appeal to high earning Gen Z consumers
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- Figure 46: Restaurant value definition, any rank, among Gen Z adults by HHI, May 2020
Dining Out Attitudes
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- Satisfy teens’ cravings
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- Figure 47: Dining out attitudes, any agree, among Gen Z teens and adults, February 2020; May 2020
- Restaurants need to communicate directly to Gen Z
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- Figure 48: Dining out attitudes, any agree, by generation, May 2020
- Ethical restaurants appeal to high earners
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- Figure 49: Dining out attitudes, any agree, by Gen Z adults and HHI, May 2020
Dining Out Behaviors
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- Gen Z wants small meals, but hold the beer
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- Figure 50: Dining out behaviors, by generation, May 2020
- One in five Gen Z adults are eating more plant-based proteins
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- Figure 51: Dining out behaviors: eating more plant-based foods, among Gen Z teens and adults by gender and race/ethnicity, February 2020; May 2020
Reasons for Eating Plant-based Foods
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- Health and curiosity motivate plant-based dining
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- Figure 52: Reasons for eating more plant-based foods, among Gen Z teens and adults, February 2020; May 2020
Reasons for Not Drinking Alcohol When Dining Out
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- Provide younger drinkers with tasty BFY options
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- Figure 53: Reasons for not drinking alcohol when dining out, by age, May 2020
- Younger women are mocktail consumers; younger men want healthier options
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- Figure 54: Reasons for not drinking alcohol when dining out, by gender and age, May 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Mintel Menu Insights
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 55: Total US revenues and forecast sales ranges of restaurants and eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
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