Table of Contents
Overview
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- Key issues covered in this Report
- COVID-19: Market context
- Economic and other assumptions
- Products covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- Impact of COVID-19 on the industry
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- Figure 1: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on yogurt and yogurt drinks, 23 July 2020
- COVID-19 fuels focus on health and immune health
- The pandemic is expected to further boost plant-based trend
- The market
- Category growth over 2015-20 masks volatile sales performance
- National lockdown hinders spoonable but boosts drinking yogurts
- Value sales growth expected to outpace volumes over 2020-25
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- Figure 2: Value sales forecast for spoonable and drinking yogurts, 2015-25
- Milk-price volatility impacts prices of other dairy products
- Renewed government focus on the nation’s weight
- Ageing UK population offers little support to spoonable yogurt
- Companies and brands
- Müller loses share, Total and Alpro gain in spoonable yogurt
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- Figure 3: Leading brands’ sales in the UK spoonable yogurts market, by value, 2018/19-2019/20
- Modest growth for Actimel lifts the yogurt drinks segment
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- Figure 4: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK drinking yogurts market, by value and volume, 2018/19-2019/20
- Low/no/reduced fat remains top health claim in 2019, no added sugar rising
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- Figure 5: New product launches in the UK yogurt/yogurt drink market, by top selected health claims, 2016-20
- Dairy-free claims rise but remain niche
- Further activity in kefir and skyr
- Müller leads on advertising in 2019
- The consumer
- Eight in ten adults eat yogurt
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- Figure 6: Usage of yogurt and yogurt drinks, May 2020
- Consumers’ financial health is pivotal for the category
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- Figure 7: Usage frequency for yogurt and yogurt drinks, May 2020
- Use as ingredients holds further potential for yogurt and yogurt drinks
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- Figure 8: Usage occasions for yogurt and yogurt drinks, by serve, May 2020
- Breakfast dominates for yogurt drinks, spoonable yogurt has more varied usage
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- Figure 9: Usage occasions for yogurt and yogurt drinks, by mealtime, May 2020
- Yogurts must deliver on taste, even as many buyers focus on health
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- Figure 10: Choice factors for yogurt and yogurt drinks, May 2020
- Yogurts/yogurt drinks with sugar alternatives and plant-based yogurts with a smooth texture appeal
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- Figure 11: Interest in innovation in yogurt and yogurt drinks, May 2020
- Flag up live cultures on-pack to tap into heightened focus on immune health
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- Figure 12: Attitudes towards yogurt and yogurt drinks, May 2020
- What we think
Impact of COVID-19 on Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks
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- The market
- National lockdown hinders spoonable but boosts drinking yogurts
- Value sales growth expected to outpace volumes over 2020-25
- Consumers’ financial health is pivotal for the category
- The consumer
- COVID-19 fuels focus on health…
- …particularly immune health
- The pandemic is expected to further boost plant-based trend
- COVID-19 scratch cooking trend provides opportunities for yogurt
- Companies and brands
- The economic downturn triggered by COVID-19 will heighten focus on price
- 2008-10 recession shows the potential of added value
- Large players are better placed to weather disruption from COVID-19
- Brands drive relevance with digital marketing
Issues and Insights
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- Flag up live cultures on-pack to tap into consumers’ increased focus on immune health
- The facts
- The implications
- Plant-based yogurts remain a segment to watch but must justify their price
- The facts
- The implications
- Yogurt can tap into the current disruption to gain ground as a snack
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Category growth over 2015-20 masks volatile sales performance
- National lockdown hinders spoonable but boosts drinking yogurts
- Value sales growth expected to outpace volumes over 2020-25
- Milk-price volatility impacts prices for other dairy products
- Renewed government focus on the nation’s weight
- Ageing UK population offers little support to spoonable yogurt
Market Size and Forecast
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- COVID-19 – short-, medium- and long-term impact on the industry
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- Figure 13: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on yogurt and yogurt drinks, 23 July 2020
- Category growth over 2015-20 masks volatile sales performance
- National lockdown hinders spoonable yogurts while boosting drinking yogurts
- Second half of 2020 predicted to make up for weak first half
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- Figure 14: Value and volume sales of spoonable and drinking yogurt (prepared on 23 July, 2020), 2015-25
- Value sales growth expected to outpace volumes over 2020-25
- Ongoing consumer health focus and scratch cooking drive will benefit the category
- Recession triggered by COVID-19 should have limited effect on category sales
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- Figure 15: Market size for UK retail volume and value sales of yogurt and yogurt drinks, 2008-13
- Ageing of the UK population to hinder volume sales of spoonable yogurts
- Post-Brexit situation to drive category inflation over 2020-25
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- Figure 16: Value sales forecast for spoonable and drinking yogurts, 2015-25
- Figure 17: Volume sales forecast for spoonable and drinking yogurts, 2015-25
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- National lockdown hits sales of spoonable yogurt
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- Figure 18: Value and volume sales of spoonable yogurt, 2015-20
- Drinking yogurt is boosted by the COVID-19 outbreak
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- Figure 19: Value and volume sales of drinking yogurts, 2015-20
Market Drivers
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- Milk-price volatility impacts prices for other dairy products
- Nationwide lockdown boosts volume sales of drinking yogurts but hinders spoonable yogurts
- Renewed government focus on the nation’s weight
- The UK’s trade relations post-Brexit are crucial for the category
- Ageing UK population offers little support to spoonable yogurt
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- Figure 20: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2014-19 and 2019-24
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Müller loses share, Total and Alpro gain in spoonable yogurt
- Modest growth for Actimel lifts the yogurt drinks segment
- L/N/R fat remains top health claim in 2019, no added sugar rising
- Dairy-free claims rise but remain niche
- Further activity in kefir and skyr
- Müller leads on advertising in 2019
Market Share
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- Müller brands lose out in volatile spoonable yogurt market
- Further sales decline for Müllerlight
- Müller Corner’s 2018-19 bounce proves short-lived
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- Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK spoonable yogurts market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
- Growth in Greek-/natural yogurt segment boosts Total
- Alpro continues to benefit from growth in the free-from category
- Large players are better placed to weather disruption from COVID-19
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- Figure 22: Leading brand owners’ sales and share in the UK spoonable yogurts market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
- Learnings from 2008-10 recession show that value is not just about price
- Modest growth for Actimel lifts the yogurt drink segment
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- Figure 23: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK drinking yogurts market, by value and volume, 2017/18-2019/20
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- L/N/R fat remains the primary health claim in 2019
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- Figure 24: New product launches in the UK yogurt/yogurt drink market, by top 10 health claims (sorted by 2019), 2016-20
- Müller continues to expand Müllerlight range
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- Figure 25: Examples of Müllerlight launches with flavours inspired by seasonal sweet baked goods, 2019-20
- Fage launches natural-sugars-only yogurts
- Yoplait Zero emphasises its real fruit content
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- Figure 26: Examples of low-fat and no added sugar yogurts, 2019-20
- Sainsbury’s low-fat split pots offer competition for Müller Corner
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- Figure 27: Sainsbury’s Tip ‘n’ Mix Vanilla Yogurt with Cereal Balls, 2019
- No-added-sugar claims rise in 2019
- Danone emphasises the clean-label credentials of its Simply Fruit range…
- …and continues the added-veg trend
- Arla experiments with textures and formats with the Explorers range
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- Figure 28: Examples of yogurt launches with natural sugars only, 2019-20
- Low-/reduced sugar claims are rare in the yogurt/yogurt drinks category
- Arla launches children’s yogurt with ‘bubbles’
- Yeo Valley draws on Somerset traditions with ‘kerned’ yogurt
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- Figure 29: Examples of spoonable yogurt launches with low-/reduced sugar claims, 2019-20
- Environmentally friendly packaging claims are widespread, but with little real innovation
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- Figure 30: Share of new product launches with ethical claims in the UK yogurt/yogurt drink market (sorted by 2019), 2016-20
- Planet Organic explores plastic alternatives
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- Figure 31: Planet Organic launches on-the-go yogurt in plastic-free packaging, 2020
- Dairy-free claims rise but remain niche
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- Figure 32: Share of new product launches with free-from claims in the UK yogurt/yogurt drinks market, (sorted by 2019), 2016-20
- Oatly enters the yogurt category
- Danone explores oat milk yogurts
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- Figure 33: Oat milk-based yogurt launches from Danone, 2020
- Alpro launches its first oat milk-based variant
- Brands and retailers look to coconut milk yogurts
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- Figure 34: Examples of coconut milk-based yogurt launches, 2019
- Coconut milk children’s yogurts brand Little Bandits makes its debut
- Tesco provides a rare example of a dairy-free fromage frais
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- Figure 35: Dairy-free fromage frais launch from Tesco, 2020
- On-the-go products are an underutilised opportunity
- On-the-go claims in 2019 appear mainly on children’s products
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- Figure 36: Children’s yogurt launches with on-the-go claims from The Collective, 2019-20
- Onken introduces pouched version of its Naked yogurt range
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- Figure 37: Example of Onken Naked in pouched format, 2019
- Further activity in kefir
- Crossover brands enter the kefir category
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- Figure 38: Examples of kefir launches from crossover brands, 2020
- Biotiful Dairy launches children’s pouched kefirs
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- Figure 39: Children’s kefir launch from Biotiful Dairy, 2020
- Dairy-free kefir aims for a premium positioning
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- Figure 40: Example of dairy-free kefir launch, 2019
- Skyr/Icelandic-style yogurts appear in new formats
- Müller launches its first-ever skyr product with new Corner variants
- Graham’s Dairy launches UK’s first pouched skyr
- Arla introduces Icelandic-style pouring yogurt
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- Figure 41: Examples of skyr/Icelandic-style yogurt launches by brand, 2019-20
- Own-label launches heat up the competition in the skyr/Icelandic-style yogurt segment
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- Figure 42: Examples of own-label skyr/Icelandic-style yogurt launches, 2019-20
- Organic brands highlight animal welfare commitments
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- Figure 43: Examples of organic yogurt/yogurt drink launches with animal welfare claims, 2019-20
- St Helen’s Farm launches layered goat’s milk yogurts
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- Figure 44: St Helen’s Farm launches unusual example of a layered goat’s milk yogurt, 2020
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Müller leads on advertising in 2019
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- Figure 45: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on yogurt and yogurt drinks, by top ten advertisers, (sorted by 2019), 2019-20
- Müllerlight draws on ancient Olympian imagery and promotes permissibility message
- Müller Corner is portrayed as part of an active lifestyle...
- …and praises individuality and creativity
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- Figure 46: Image from the Müller Corner “Yog Art” campaign, 2020
- …which it promotes as helping people to stay connected during the lockdown
- Fage Total focuses on plain Greek yogurt’s indulgent aspects
- Recipe suggestions used to demonstrate plain yogurt’s versatility
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- Figure 47: Example of Fage Total recipe promoting yogurt as a guilt-free sweet treat, 2020
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- Figure 48: Example of Fage Total recipe positioned as a children’s project, 2020
- Danone concentrates spending on Activia and Actimel
- Activia continues to link improved gut health with happiness…
- …and with staying healthy even amid lockdown restrictions
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- Figure 49: Facebook post by Activia as part of the “Love What’s Inside” campaign, 2020
- Actimel celebrates “Everyday Heroes” during the pandemic
- Arla Skyr focuses on determination and overcoming obstacles
- Arla Explorers promoted as ‘for adventurous kids’
- Yakult targets families as it continues to push associations with science
- “Wellbeing with Yakult” campaign centres on mental as well as physical health
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- Figure 50: Facebook post by Yakult in the “Wellbeing with Yakult” series, 2020
- Petits Filous puts its Change4Life endorsement front and centre
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 51: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, June 2020
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 52: Key metrics for selected brands, June 2020
- Brand attitudes: Müller Corner and Yeo Valley score highly on quality perceptions
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- Figure 53: Attitudes, by brand, June 2020
- Brand personality: Müller Corner scores highest on the fun factor
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- Figure 54: Brand personality – macro image, June 2020
- Actimel and Activia are the most widely seen as healthy
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- Figure 55: Brand personality – micro image, June 2020
- Brand analysis
- Müller Corner is the most widely seen as delicious and fun
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- Figure 56: User profile of Müller Corner, June 2020
- Activia scores well on health associations
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- Figure 57: User profile of Activia, June 2020
- Yeo Valley has a strong ethical and healthy image
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- Figure 58: User profile of Yeo Valley, June 2020
- Müllerlight does well on the fun factor
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- Figure 59: User profile of Müllerlight, June 2020
- Actimel has a younger user group than is usual for yogurt drinks
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- Figure 60: User profile of Actimel, June 2020
- Arla Skyr is seen widely as natural and (somewhat) authentic
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- Figure 61: User profile of Arla Skyr, June 2020
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Eight in ten adults eat yogurt
- Consumers’ financial health is pivotal for the category
- Use as ingredients holds further potential for yogurt and yogurt drinks
- Yogurts must deliver on taste, even as many buyers focus on health
- Yogurts/yogurt drinks with sugar alternatives appeal to 41% of adults
- Plant-based yogurts with a smooth texture interest a third of adults
- Flag up live cultures on-pack to tap into heightened focus on immune health
Impact of COVID-19 on Consumer Behaviours
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- Boost to home cooking offers opportunities for the category
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- Figure 62: Consumers who plan on cooking more from scratch after the COVID-19/coronavirus outbreak than they used to (ie use/prepare meals with raw ingredients), by gender and age, 23 April-7 May 2020
- COVID-19 boosts interest in immune system benefits
- A stronger focus on dental health would be timely
- Potential for non-dairy yogurts/yogurt drinks to grow usage
- COVID-19 expected to further boost flexitarian and plant-based trends
- Headlines link human activity to pandemics
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- Figure 63: Changes in the environment being seen as a priority since the COVID-19 outbreak, by gender and age, 7-14 May 2020
Usage of Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks
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- Eight in ten adults eat yogurt
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- Figure 64: Usage of yogurt and yogurt drinks, May 2020
- Spoonable yogurts will lose out from ageing UK population
- Child population is pivotal for spoonable yogurt
- Half of adults eat flavoured dairy yogurts
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- Figure 65: Usage of spoonable yogurt/fromage frais, by type, May 2020
- Usage of plain/flavoured non-dairy yogurts is low
- Fermented milk drinks usage peaks among under-35s
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- Figure 66: Usage of yogurt drinks/fermented milk drinks, May 2020
Usage Frequency for Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks
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- Drinking yogurts see more frequent usage than spoonable
- Over-55s are the most frequent users of yogurt drinks
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- Figure 67: Usage frequency for yogurt and yogurt drinks, May 2020
- Consumers’ financial health is pivotal for the category
Usage Occasions for Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks
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- Yogurt and yogurt drinks are normally enjoyed on their own
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- Figure 68: Usage occasions for yogurt and yogurt drinks, by serve, May 2020
- Spoonable yogurt is more likely to be used as an ingredient
- COVID-19 scratch cooking trend provides opportunities for yogurt
- Promote yogurt as a better-for-you substitute for cream in recipes
- Leverage the homemade smoothies trend
- Breakfast occasion dominates for yogurt drinks, while spoonable yogurt has more varied usage
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- Figure 69: Usage occasions for yogurt and yogurt drinks, by mealtime, May 2020
- Innovate with more sophisticated flavours to encourage evening usage of yogurt drinks
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- Figure 70: International example of yogurt drink with cocktail-inspired flavour, 2019
- Under-35s are the most likely to eat yogurt as a snack
- Offer fortified yogurts to strengthen image as a healthier option for afternoon snacking
- On-the-go formats attract strong consumer interest
Choice Factors for Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks
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- Yogurts must deliver on taste
- Better-for-you yogurts’ focus on indulgence remains highly relevant
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- Figure 71: Choice factors for yogurt and yogurt drinks, May 2020
- Price influences 62% of buyers
- Ethical and environmental considerations hold limited sway
Interest in Innovation in Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks
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- Yogurts/yogurt drinks with sugar alternatives appeal to 41% of adults
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- Figure 72: Interest in innovation in yogurt and yogurt drinks, May 2020
- Brands use fruits to provide sweetness to no-added-sugar yogurts
- Plant-based sweeteners warrant further exploration
- Plant-based yogurts with a smooth texture interest a third of adults
- Dairy/plant-based yogurt blends appeal especially to younger Millennials
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- Figure 73: Live Real Farms Lactose Free Dairy + Almond Original Milk Blend, 2019
- Dairy/plant-based yogurt blends can appeal on environmental grounds
- Organic brands are a particularly good fit for dairy/plant-based blends
- Yogurts/yogurt drinks with beauty-enhancing ingredients appeal especially to younger women
- Beauty or skin health claims are rare in yogurt/yogurt drinks category
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- Figure 74: International examples of yogurts/yogurt drinks making skin health claims, 2017-18
Attitudes towards Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks
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- Flag up live cultures on-pack to tap into consumers’ increased focus on immune health
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- Figure 75: Attitudes towards yogurt and yogurt drinks, May 2020
- Plant-based yogurts’ environmentally friendly image rarely translates to usage
- Emphasise non-dairy yogurts’ taste more strongly to grow usage
- Make the environmental benefits of switching to non-dairy yogurts tangible
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- Figure 76: Facebook post from Alpro promoting the environmental ‘savings’ from switching to plant-based foods, 2020
- Dairy yogurts with good environmental credentials should highlight this on-pack
- Tangibility is needed to justify higher price
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- Figure 77: International examples of organic dairy product launches with on-pack statements about their environmental policies, 2020
- Ambient yogurts can appeal both as a financially savvy and an environmentally friendly choice
- Ambient yogurt could leverage shelf-life and energy savings
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Figure 78: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on yogurt and yogurt drinks, by top four advertisers (sorted by 2019), 2019-20
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Appendix – Buying of Yogurt and Yogurt Drinks
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- Figure 79: Buying of yogurt and yogurt drinks, by dairy and non-dairy, May 2020
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