Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Value sales show stable growth
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- Figure 1: Forecast of value sales of ice cream (adjusted for COVID-19), China, 2014-2024
- Sales volume will continue declining and show small rebound in 2024
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- Figure 2: Forecast of volume sales of ice cream (adjusted for COVID-19), China, 2014-2024
- Growing cold-chain distribution and online distribution expand ice cream market
- Impact of COVID-19 on ice cream
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- Figure 3: Short, medium and long term impact of COVID-19 on ice cream, August 2020
- Strong short-term growth in in-home consumption offsets some loss through offline channels
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- Figure 4: Food consumption changes – “Ice cream”, 27 Apr – 2 May
- Demand for healthy eating causes short term impact and accelerates trend towards healthier innovations
- Companies and brands
- Leading players lose value share but maintain lead in volume share
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- Figure 5: Leading companies’ value share of the ice cream market, China, 2018-2019
- Figure 6: Leading companies’ volume share of the ice cream market, China, 2018-2019
- Online retailing benefits alternative strategies
- Innovations in nutrition and functionality provide reason to indulge
- The consumer
- Convenience and texture of crispy layer increases penetration
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- Figure 7: Format usage, February 2020
- Differentiate brand positioning for different age groups
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- Figure 8: Brand penetration, February 2020
- Brands need to build trust in online distribution of ice cream
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- Figure 9: Purchase channels, February 2020
- Preferred price varies by complexity of format
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- Figure 10: Price preference, February 2020
- Opportunity for ice cream snack bars in the afternoon
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- Figure 11: Consumption occasion, February 2020
- Utilise scent or texture of ingredients to its advantage
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- Figure 12: Ingredient preference, February 2020
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Traditional producers can pivot with two brand strategy
- The facts
- The implications
- Attract young females with small lower-priced portions
- The facts
- The implications
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- Figure 13: Examples of portion-controlled ice cream
- Design mealtime ice cream to trigger regular consumption
- The facts
- The implications
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- Figure 14: Examples of meal pairing ice cream
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Premiumisation drives value growth while volumes decline
- Growth of cold-chain distribution brings ice cream to more consumers
- Online efficiencies release ice cream from restriction to summer
Market Size and Forecast
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- Premiumisation drives value growth
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- Figure 15: Forecast of value sales of ice cream (adjusted for COVID-19), China, 2014-2024
- Volume sales expected to start rebounding by 2024
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- Figure 16: Forecast of volume sales of ice cream (adjusted for COVID-19), China, 2014-2024
Market Factors
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- Growing coverage of cold-chain distribution
- Alibaba improves efficiency in logistics system and distribution models
- Jingdong and Mengniu eliminate wholesaler for complete control over delivery process
- SF Express and Suning grow cold-chain logistics business
- Online efficiencies drive growth of new brands
- Ice cream no longer just seen as a summertime treat
- Capital interest in ice cream industry
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- New brands steal value share but sales volume remain low
- Online marketing drives alternate strategies
- Appeal to reason with nutrition and functionality or curiosity with innovative flavours
Market Share
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- New brands chip away at value share
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- Figure 17: Leading companies’ value share of the ice cream market, China, 2018-2019
- Leading brands maintain dominance in volume consumption
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- Figure 18: Leading companies’ volume share of the ice cream market, China, 2018-2019
- Two tier strategy effective for growth in both value and volume
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- Figure 19: Zhongjie 1946 offline store
Competitive Strategies
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- Traditional mega-brands turn to online
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- Figure 20: Examples of ice cream products sold on official Tmall stores
- Accelerated turnover with viral products
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- Figure 21: Examples of Aoxue products
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- Figure 22: Examples of ice cream products
- Ingredients highlighted as selling point
- A return to the basics
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- Figure 23: Proportion of new ice cream product launches in china featuring “No Additives/Preservatives” claim
- Figure 24: Examples of “no additives/preservatives” claims
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- Figure 25: Example of Bulla’s advertisement
- Location as a symbol of quality
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- Figure 26: Examples of advertising highlighting origin of ingredients
- See it for yourself
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- Figure 27: Examples of Msbingo popsicles
- Figure 28: Examples of Gooble sorbet ice cream
- Crossovers with parallel categories
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- Figure 29: Examples of Chicecream’s collaborations
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- Figure 30: Examples of brand extensions into ice cream
Who’s Innovating?
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- Nutritional and functional ice cream innovations
- Ice cream doubling as a protein bar
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- Figure 31: Examples of protein bar ice cream
- Minus claims provide reason to indulge
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- Figure 32: Percentage of new products launched with minus claims in ice cream market, China, 2018-2020
- Figure 33: Halo Top Cookies & Cream Light Ice Cream, USA, 2020
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- Figure 34: Examples of Chi Bu Pang De Xiao Xue Gao products
- Frozen yogurt picks up in domestic market
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- Figure 35: Examples of yogurt ice cream
- Innovations in flavours
- Surprising popularity of salty and savoury flavours
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- Figure 36: Examples of salty flavoured ice cream
- Expand on fruits and vegetables with trends from juice and smoothies
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- Figure 37: Proportion of top flavour component groups in ice cream launches in china, 2016-2020
- Figure 38: Juice Revolution Artisan Lollies, South Africa, 2020
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- Figure 39: Whaka functional ice cream
- Maximize relaxing benefit of ice cream with alcohol
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- Figure 40: Examples of alcoholic ice cream collaborations
- Figure 41: Examples of liquor-infused ice cream
- Mess-free formats provide convenience
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- Figure 42: Examples of mess-free ice cream products
- Figure 43: Soft Republick The Original Vanilla Squeezy Ice Cream Pouch, Denmark, 2020
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Crispy shell provides convenience and increases penetration
- Consumers willing to accept higher price ranges for ice cream cones
- Ice cream snack bars can target afternoon occasion
Format Usage
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- Crispy layer provides texture and convenience
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- Figure 44: Format usage, February 2020
- Young females like variety in ice cream formats
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- Figure 45: Format usage, by age and gender, February 2020
- Go premium with scoopable ice cream with fillings or bits
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- Figure 46: Format usage, by education level, February 2020
Brand Penetration
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- Stay true to brand positioning for 30-49-year-olds
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- Figure 47: Brand penetration, February 2020
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- Figure 48: Brand penetration – Select brands, by age, February 2020
- Budget-friendly and accessible positioning to target students
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- Figure 49: Brand penetration – “Yili/Mengniu/Bright”, by personal income level, February 2020
- Brands promote different advantages
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- Figure 50: Brand penetration – Select brands, by personal income level, February 2020
- Figure 51: Brand penetration – Select brands, by personal income level, February 2020
- Sub-brand strategy catering to young females
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- Figure 52: Brand penetration, by gender, February 2020
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- Figure 53: Examples of Dongbei Daban products
- Figure 54: Examples of Zhongjie Bingdian and Zhongjie 1946 products
Purchase Channels
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- Emphasize instant gratification in convenience stores
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- Figure 55: Purchase channels, February 2020
- Use online channels for premium dessert ice cream
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- Figure 56: Purchase channels – 25-29 years old, by gender, February 2020
- Brands can reach target consumers on different platforms
- Rising foreign brands are popular with users of social e-commerce, and fresh grocery and food delivery apps
- Merge nationalist and foreign elements for promotion on social e-commerce platforms
Price Preference
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- Preferred price varies by format
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- Figure 57: Price preference, February 2020
- Females more willing to pay small price premium for different textures
- Consumers aged 18-24 prefer low prices
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- Figure 58: Price preference – “Below 4 RMB”, by age group, February 2020
- High income consumers’ price sensitivity varies depending on product format
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- Figure 59: Price sensitivity – “4-7 RMB”, by personal income level, February 2020
Consumption Occasion
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- Position ice cream as a pick-me-up snack
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- Figure 60: Consumption occasion, February 2020
- Design meal pairing products for food delivery platforms
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- Figure 61: Consumption occasion, by purchase channels, February 2020
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- Figure 62: NOC marketing infographic
- Create guilt-free night-time options for high income consumers
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- Figure 63: Consumption occasion, by personal income level, February 2020
Ingredient preference
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- Matcha, cheese and vegetables valued for their scent
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- Figure 64: Ingredient preference, February 2020
- Sesame, biscuits, cereal or grains, and nuts provide additional texture
- Chocolate and fruits are versatile ingredients
- Young consumers prefer indulgent flavours
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- Figure 65: Ingredient preference – “I don't want it to be used in ice cream”, by age, February 2020
- Ingredients should be matched to product format
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- Figure 66: Ingredients preferred as bits, by product format, February 2020
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- Figure 67: Ingredients preferred as flavour, by product format, February 2020
Meet the Mintropolitans
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- Mintropolitans place greater value on ice cream sandwiches and scoopable ice cream
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- Figure 68: Price preference, by consumer classification, February 2020
- Experiment with cheese flavour pairings for Mintropolitans
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- Figure 69: Ingredient preference – “Cheese”, by consumer classification, February 2020
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- Figure 70: Examples of cheese and fruit flavoured ice cream
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 71: Total market value of ice cream, China, 2014-24
- Figure 72: Total market volume of ice cream, China, 2014-24
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Appendix – Methodology and Abbreviations
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- Methodology
- Fan chart forecast
- Abbreviations
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