Table of Contents
Executive Summary
-
- Short, medium and long-term impact on the industry
-
- Figure 1: Expected impact of COVID-19 on the UK foodservice market, short, medium and long-term, 24 June 2020
- Opportunities and threats
- Foodservice outlets suffer from lengthy closures…
- …And when they reopen things won’t be the same
- Some room for optimism
-
- Figure 2: Things people are most looking forward to doing once social distancing measures are relaxed, fieldwork 7-14 May 2020
- Impact on the foodservice market
- Capacity constraints will add to casual dining’s woes
- A long road ahead, but the market will eventually recover
-
- Figure 3: Forecasted value of the UK foodservice market (adjusted for COVID-19 on 24 June 2020), 2014-24
- How a COVID-19 recession will reshape foodservice
- Mid-market woes are likely to intensify
- Takeaways: an affordable luxury
-
- Figure 4: Attitudes towards takeaway/delivery food, November 2018
- COVID-19: UK context
The Impact of COVID-19 on Consumers
-
- Anxiety levels align with case curve...
-
- Figure 5: Mintel COVID-19 exposure anxiety index, 28 February – 3 June 2020
- … but consumers remain anxious about their health
-
- Figure 6: People’s level of concerns about the risk of being exposed to the coronavirus, 28 February – 3 June 2020
- COVID-19 concerns by demographics
-
- Figure 7: Proportion of consumers showing the highest degree of concern (4 or 5 out of 5) regarding the risk of being exposed to the coronavirus, by age, 28 February – 3 June 2020
- UK begins to soften lockdown measures
-
- Figure 8: Government COVID-19 lockdown exit strategy, published 11 May 2020
- Lockdown fears moderate
-
- Figure 9: People’s level of concerns about how the outbreak might affect their lifestyle, 28 February - 3 June
- A bleak outlook for the economy
-
- Figure 10: Consumer views on the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the UK economy and their own finances, 28 May – 3 June 2020
- Consumers cut back outgoings, and add to savings
-
- Figure 11: How consumers have been affected or changed their behaviour as a result of the outbreak, 21-28 May 2020
- Household finances hold steady for most
-
- Figure 12: changes in financial situation since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, 21-28 May 2020
- COVID-19 is yet to meaningfully affect most households’ well-being…
-
- Figure 13: The financial well-being index, January 2015-May 2020
- …but confidence for the year ahead plummets
-
- Figure 14: Consumers’ financial confidence for the coming year, May 2020
- Middle age groups feel particularly vulnerable…
- …and self-employed respondents show the importance of the COVID-19 support package
How COVID-19 Has Already Affected Foodservice
-
- Closures wipe out vast majority of sales in Q2
- Foodservice operators adapt to challenging conditions
-
- Figure 15: Anticipated expenditure on takeaways/home delivery over the next month compared to usual spending habits, 16 April-3 June 2020
- Casual dining was already under pressure
-
- Figure 16: LEON’s meal boxes, April 2020
What Behaviours Will Change in the Short-term
-
- Time to deliver
-
- Figure 17: Takeaway/home delivery food purchase channels, by age, November 2019
What Behaviours Will Change in the Medium-term
-
- Strong supressed demand for foodservice
- Capacity limits will accelerate the need for premiumisation
- Foodservice brands should champion localism
What Behaviours Will Change in the Long-term
-
- Takeaway food customers will embrace greater choice
-
- Figure 18: Attitudes towards takeaway/delivery food, November 2018
- Diners will demand evidence of good hygiene practices
-
- Figure 19: Interest in artificial intelligence in restaurants, May 2019
What We Can Learn from Previous Slowdowns
-
- Underlying demand for eating out persists in tough times
-
- Figure 20: UK foodservice market value, 2007-12
Lessons from Other Regions
-
- Table separation and capacity caps
- Localism will be the legacy
Back to top