Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Market overview
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
- Top takeaways
- Impact of COVID-19 on chocolate confectionery
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- Figure 2: Short-, medium- and longer-term impact of COVID-19 on chocolate confectionery, May 2020
- The issues
- Chocolate confectionery wins among sweet treats, but could use a boost
- Sugar avoidance is real
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- Figure 3: Reasons for eating less chocolate confectionery, February 2020
- Little guys have a steep uphill climb, but can gain footing
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- Figure 4: Chocolate confectionery purchase factors, February 2020
- The opportunities
- Seasonal and sugar free segments see strongest growth
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- Figure 5: Total US sales of chocolate confectionery, by segment share, 2017-19
- Packaging and flavor innovation can be differentiators
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- Figure 6: Reasons for eating more chocolate confectionery, February 2020
- Boosting online sales of chocolate
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- Figure 7: Chocolate confectionery purchase location, February 2020
The Impact of COVID-19 on Chocolate Confectionery
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- Figure 8: Short, medium and longer term impact of COVID-19 on chocolate confection, May 2020
- Opportunities and Threats
- Consumers are eating their feelings
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- Figure 9: Snack motivations, November 2018
- Brand pecking order could be up for grabs
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- Figure 10: Perception of food/drink brands, February 2019
- eChocolate and DTC meet consumer cravings where they need them
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- Figure 11: Coronavirus lifestyle changes – online shopping, May 28, 2020-June 4, 2020
- Snack sizes should crawl out of slump
- Seasonal will need some extra attention
- Sooner than later we’ll have to put our real clothes on
- Impact on the chocolate confectionery market
- Category should see a welcomed 2020 bump from COVID-19, but not all segments will be treated equally
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
- How the crisis will affect chocolate confectionery’s key consumers
- Young shoppers may be drawn further toward PL and value snacks
- Chocolaty reward systems now adult friendly
- How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the chocolate confectionery industry
- Longer-term financial strain on individuals will extend to discretionary purchases
- COVID-19: Chocolate confectionery context
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The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Chocolate confectionery sales tempered amid a bustling snack market
- Growth in seasonal and sugar free highlights interest in variety, health
- Snack categories only manage small gains during a snack heyday
- Majority of consumers are limiting sugar consumption
Market Size and Forecast
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- Chocolate confectionery limited to slow creep amid snack boom
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Market Breakdown
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- Seasonal and sugar-free segments see strongest growth
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- Figure 15: Total US sales of chocolate confectionery, by segment share, 2017-19
- Declines in snack size should be recovered due to COVID-19
- Gift boxes could also use the pandemic as a time of reinvention
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- Figure 16: Total US sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, by segment, 2014-24
- Drug stores lose share of chocolate confectionery sales
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- Figure 17: Total US retail sales of chocolate confectionery, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
Market Perspective
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- Snack boom doesn’t ensure boom times for all snack categories
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- Figure 18: Percentage growth in select snack categories, 2014-19
- Figure 19: Dessert and confection consumption, March 2020
- Get the other snack categories covered
Market Factors
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- Majority of consumers aim to follow a healthy diet; sugar reduction is a primary focus
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- Figure 20: Sweetener usage trend, September 2018
- Where chocolate doesn’t convey health, it can suffice for wellbeing
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- Figure 21: 2020 health and wellness goals – Any do (net), November 2019
- Fun and function are on par for snackers
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- Figure 22: Snack motivations, November 2018
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Hershey continues category dominance, private label sees strong growth
- Sugar content going in the wrong direction
- Plain chocolate leads among launches, but innovation points to variety
- Ethical claims on the rise, should stick around
Company and Brand Sales of Chocolate Confectionery
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- Hershey continues category dominance, private label sees strong growth
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- Figure 23: Share of sales chocolate confectionery, by company, 52 weeks ending February 23, 2020
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- Figure 24: Sales of chocolate confectionery, by company, 52 weeks ending February 24, 2019 and 52 weeks ending February 23, 2020
What’s Working
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- Four in 10 chocolate launches are seasonal
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- Figure 25: Chocolate launches, by sub-category, 2018-20*
- Ethical claims rise to the top
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- Figure 26: Chocolate launches, by leading claims, 2018-20*
- No added sugar claims grows by 247%, but more can be done
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- Figure 27: Chocolate launches, by fasted growing claims, 2018-20*
- Figure 28: Chocolate launches, by sugar total, 2018-20*
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- Figure 29: Multi-outlet sales of sugar free chocolate confectionery, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Plain chocolate leads, fast growing flavors show needed variety
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- Figure 30: Chocolate launches, by leading flavors, 2018-20*
- Figure 31: Chocolate launches, by fastest growing flavors, 2018-20*
- Good value drives purchase intent
- Trustworthy brands provide value, encourage trial
- Private label success points to shifting priorities
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- Figure 32: Multi-outlet sales of box/bag/bar >3.5 oz chocolate confectionery, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Figure 33: Multi-outlet sales of box/bag/bar <3.5 oz chocolate confectionery, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
What’s Struggling
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- Private label seasonal loses interest
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- Figure 34: Multi-outlet sales of seasonal chocolate confectionery, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Snack size stalls at MULO
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- Figure 35: Multi-outlet sales of snack size chocolate confectionery, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Gift boxes nose dive, a refresh is in order
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- Figure 36: Multi-outlet sales of chocolate gift boxes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Health driven by healthy mix-ins and diet tie-ins, hampered by price
What to Watch
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- Could honey hit the sweet spot?
- Specialized diet offerings could lead to mainstream innovation
- Dairy free is a natural area of opportunity
- Will ruby chocolate find a home in the US?
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Household penetration of chocolate confectionery has dipped since 2018
- A quarter of chocolate eaters have more recently increased consumption
- Increased snacking drives increased chocolate consumption, not enough
- Store brands don’t have strong resonance, for now
- Chocolate confectionery needs to strengthen case as treat of choice
Chocolate Confectionery Consumption
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- Household penetration of chocolate confectionery dips
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- Figure 37: Chocolate confectionery purchase, February 2018 and February 2020
- Small sizes appeal to women
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- Figure 38: Share of chocolate purchase – for self, by gender, February 2020
- Reinventing the boxed segment could find favor with under 45s
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- Figure 39: Share of chocolate purchase – for self, by age, February 2020
- Snack size finds particular interest among parents
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- Figure 40: Chocolate purchase, by parental status, February 2020
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- Figure 41: Chocolate purchase – for child, February 2020
- Chocolate eaters like variety
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- Figure 42: Repertoire analysis – Chocolate purchase – For myself, February 2020
- Solid chocolate leads, followed by nut mix-ins
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- Figure 43: Perceptions of candy types – Something I eat, February 2020
- Women are strong target for simple options
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- Figure 44: Perceptions of candy types – Something I eat, by gender, February 2020
- Hispanics gravitate toward nut mix-ins
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- Figure 45: Perceptions of candy types – Something I eat, by Hispanic origin, February 2020
Change in Chocolate Confectionery Consumption
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- A quarter of chocolate eaters have increased consumption in the past year
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- Figure 46: Change in chocolate confectionery consumption, February 2020
- Increased snacking drives increased chocolate consumption
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- Figure 47: Reasons for eating more chocolate confectionery, February 2020
- Men are driving the increase in chocolate consumption
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- Figure 48: Change in chocolate confectionery consumption, by gender, February 2020
- Category health innovation not resonating with women
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- Figure 49: Reasons for eating more chocolate confectionery, by gender, February 2020
- Time savings and variety appeal to under 45s
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- Figure 50: Reasons for eating more chocolate confectionery, by age, February 2020
- Sugar avoidance challenges chocolate consumption
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- Figure 51: Reasons for eating less chocolate confectionery, February 2020
- Older shoppers are health aware, younger shoppers price conscious
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- Figure 52: Reasons for eating less chocolate confectionery, by age, February 2020
Types of Chocolate Confectionery Purchased
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- Style
- Milk chocolate leads, but variety will help spur trial
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- Figure 53: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - style, February 2020
- Interest in dark chocolate grows with age
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- Figure 54: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - style, by age, February 2020
- Parents can be targeted with products across the range
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- Figure 55: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - style, by parental status, February 2020
- Dark chocolate not as likely to resonate with Hispanic shoppers
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- Figure 56: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - style, by Hispanic origin, February 2020
- Seasonal
- Christmas and Valentine’s lead seasonal purchase
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- Figure 57: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Seasonal, February 2020
- Women likely look to holidays for permission to indulge
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- Figure 58: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Seasonal, by gender, February 2020
- Seasonal options are a luxury of higher-earning households
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- Figure 59: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Seasonal, by HH income, February 2020
- Parents are strong targets for seasonal purchase
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- Figure 60: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Seasonal, by parental status, February 2020
- Features
- Store brands don’t have strong resonance, for now
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- Figure 61: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Features, February 2020
- Younger shoppers are more open to store brand chocolate
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- Figure 62: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Features, by age, February 2020
- Only a quarter of parents look for chocolate aimed at kids
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- Figure 63: Types of chocolate confectionery purchased - Features, by parental status, February 2020
Chocolate Confectionery Purchase Location
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- Drug stores play an amplified role in chocolate confectionery purchase
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- Figure 64: Chocolate confectionery purchase location, February 2020
- Youngest adults prefer mass channels; 25-44s should be nurtured online
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- Figure 65: Chocolate confectionery purchase location, by age, February 2020
- Convenience store own brands have a strong chance at resonance
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- Figure 66: Chocolate confectionery purchase location, by type – store brands, February 2020
- Parents get chocolate wherever they can
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- Figure 67: Chocolate confectionery purchase location, by parental status, February 2020
- A quarter of buyers of chocolate aimed at kids purchase chocolate online
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- Figure 68: Chocolate confectionery purchase location, by type – aimed at kids, February 2020
Chocolate Confectionery Purchase Factors
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- Brand plays a strong role in chocolate purchase; little guys aren’t totally edged out
- Second-tier drivers (flavor variety and health) have led increase in consumption
- Interest in third-tier specialty offerings grows, presents opportunity for differentiation
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- Figure 69: Chocolate confectionery purchase factors, February 2020
- Specialty offerings find a larger audience among younger shoppers, pointing to future of category
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- Figure 70: Chocolate confectionery purchase factors, by age, February 2020
- Dark chocolate buyers seek specialized claims, milk could take a cue
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- Figure 71: Chocolate confectionery purchase factors, by style, February 2020
Perception of Snack Types
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- Chocolate confectionery wins among sweet treats, but could use a boost
- Highlight pleasure and enjoyment
- Working toward wellness, but not winning
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- Figure 72: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Sweet snack comparison, February 2020
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- Figure 73: Sweet snack comparison, February 2020
Perception of Confectionery Types
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- Chocolate is under-delivering on fun
- Nuts and fruit can help with health appeal
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- Figure 74: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Candy comparison, February 2020
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- Figure 75: Candy comparison, February 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Correspondence analysis methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of box/bag/bar >3.5 oz chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of box/bag/bar >3.5 oz chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 78: Total US retail sales and forecast of box/bag/bar <3.5 oz chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 79: Total US retail sales and forecast of box/bag/bar <3.5 oz chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 80: Total US retail sales and forecast of seasonal chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 81: Total US retail sales and forecast of seasonal chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 82: Total US retail sales and forecast of snack size chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 83: Total US retail sales and forecast of snack size chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 84: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate gift boxes, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 85: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate gift boxes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 86: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar free chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 87: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar free chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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Appendix – Retail Channels
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- Figure 88: US supermarket sales of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 89: US drug store sales of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 90: US convenience store sales of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 91: US sales of chocolate confectionery through other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 92: Multi-outlet sales of chocolate confectionery, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
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