Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Spend on Autumn/Winter events to grow to £3.5 billion in 2020
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- Figure 1: Estimated consumer spending on the Autumn/Winter retail events, 2018/19 and 2019/20
- COVID-19 impact to materialise in the medium term
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- Figure 2: Short terms, medium term and long-term impact of COVID-19 on overall retail and seasonal shopping, 2020
- Retail sales grew in last half of 2019
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- Figure 3: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by season, 2019
- Online retail sales fall in November
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- Figure 4: Annual percentage change in all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2019
- Companies and brands
- Advertising expenditure peaks around Bonfire Night and Black Friday
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- Figure 5: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by month, 2018 and 2019
- Retailers push forward sustainability and ethical agendas during seasonal events
- The consumer
- Purchases for school uniforms and shoes drive Back-to-School spending
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- Figure 6: Back-to-School purchasing, September 2019
- Chocolates and sweets most popular during Halloween
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- Figure 7: What consumers buy for Halloween, 2018 and 2019
- Safety above all on Bonfire Night
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- Figure 8: Bonfire Night behaviours, November 2019
- Black Friday becomes key for Christmas gift buying
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- Figure 9: Black Friday shopping behaviours, December 2019
- Valentine’s Day gift spending increases
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- Figure 10: Average spend per consumer on Valentine’s day gifts in 2019 and 2020, February 2020
- What we think
The Impact of COVID-19 on Seasonal Shopping (Autumn/Winter)
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- Short, medium and long-term impact on the industry
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- Figure 11: Short terms, medium term and long-term impact of COVID-19 on overall retail and seasonal shopping, 2020
- Opportunities and Threats
- Seasonal events summary
- Back-to-school
- Halloween and Bonfire night
- Black Friday and Christmas
- Valentine’s Day
- Opportunities to tap into the community feeling caused by COVID-19
- …and cater to the eco-conscious consumer
- Capture spend on in-home food and drink with premium ranges
- Shifts in consumer behaviour
- Activity participation expected to shift indoors with family and friends
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- Figure 12: Activities consumers look forward to post lockdown, April16-April 23, 2020
- Parents will look for ways to afford Back-to-School items
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- Figure 13: Financial confidence for the coming year, by parental status, January 2020 and April 2020
- 16-24s will feel the lingering effects of a recession
How a COVID-19 recession will reshape the industry
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- Discretionary spending expected to slow
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- Figure 14: Changes in shopping habits due to COVID-19, April16-April 23, 2020
- Impact on the marketing mix
- COVID-19: UK context
Issues and Insights
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- How can retailers help shoppers be more mindful at seasonal events but still spread the festive mood?
- The facts
- Implications
- Halloween
- Valentine’s Day
- Black Friday
- How can retailers capture and attract more spend for in-home food and drink at seasonal events?
- The facts
- Implications
- Halloween
- Bonfire Night
- Valentine’s Day
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Spending on Autumn/Winter seasonal events totalled £3.5 billion
- Annual spending on retail sales totalled £392.4 billion
- Clothing and footwear is the strongest online performer
- Consumer confidence bounces back, but concerns over cost of living post-Brexit remain
Market Sizes and Segmentation
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- Consumer spending on seasonal events increases in 2020
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- Figure 15: Estimated consumer spending on the Autumn/Winter retail events, 2018/19 and 2019/20
- Back-to-School spending declines as parents cut back on non-essentials
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- Figure 16: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Back-to-School products in 2019
- Figure 17: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Back-to-School products, 2016-19
- In-home food/drink grows as adults celebrate Halloween in 2019
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- Figure 18: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Halloween products in 2019
- Figure 19: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Halloween products, 2018 and 2019
- Cold and windy weather dampens Bonfire Night spirit and spending
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- Figure 20: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Bonfire Night products in 2019
- Figure 21: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Bonfire Night, 2018 and 2019
- Valentine’s Day returns to growth as spending increases
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- Figure 22: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Valentine’s Day products in 2020
- Figure 23: Estimated breakdown of consumer spending on Valentine’s Day products 2019 and 2020
Retail Sales
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- Autumn maintains greatest share of retail spend
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- Figure 24: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by season, 2019
- Figure 25: Value of all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2018 and 2019
- Promising uptick in all leading categories
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- Figure 26: Value of leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2018 and 2019
- November sales fall
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- Figure 27: Annual percentage change in all retail sales (excluding fuel) at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2018 and 2019
- Household goods stand out performer in terms of year-on-year growth
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- Figure 28: Annual percentage change in leading category retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2019
Online Retail Sales
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- Online share spread evenly between November and December
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- Figure 29: Online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, by month, 2018 and 2019
- December increases in value terms
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- Figure 30: Value of all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2018 and 2019
- November falls behind December in terms of year-on-year growth
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- Figure 31: Annual percentage change in all online retail sales at current prices, non-seasonally adjusted, by month, 2019
- Clothing and footwear is the strongest online performer
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- Figure 32: Online retail sales as a percentage of all retail sales, by category, monthly, 2018 and 2019
Market Drivers
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- Real wage growth in 2019
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- Figure 33: Real wage growth – Average weekly earnings vs inflation, January 2016-January 2020
- Prices are the biggest concern post-Brexit
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- Figure 34: Consumer views on the impact of the EU referendum, January 2020
- Brexit and COVID-19 set to damped consumer confidence
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- Figure 35: How would you generally describe your financial situation at the moment?” January 2020Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+
- Changing trends in the population structure
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- Figure 36: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2019-29
- Figure 37: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2019-29
- Regulations and policies
- MP Emma Hardy launched the ‘RE:uniform’ scheme in Hull
- A call for tighter regulations on use of fireworks
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Advertising spend totals £893.9 million in 2019
- Advertising spend concentrated in the final quarter of the year
- Retailers push forward sustainability and ethical agendas for seasonal events
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Back-to-School
- John Lewis & partners trial specialist children shoe fitting service
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- Figure 38: John Lewis special shoe fitting service, 2019
- Halloween
- Aldi’s glitter free and ‘too scary’ Halloween range
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- Figure 39: Aldi’s ‘too scary’ Halloween decorations, 2019
- Halloween House pops up at Intu Merry Hill
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- Figure 40: Halloween House pop-up store in Intu Merry Hill, 2019
- Figure 41: Lush’s recyclable and reusable bath bomb holders, 2019
- Asda’s matching mother and daughter Halloween costumes
- Bonfire Night
- Sainsbury’s stops selling fireworks
- Tesco sells low-noise fireworks
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- Figure 42: Tesco 100-110 decibel fireworks, 2019
- Christmas
- John Lewis & Partners experimental concept store
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- Figure 43: John Lewis and Waitrose ‘Experience Playground’, 2019
- John Lewis launches its first food and drink gift collection
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- Figure 44: John Lewis & Partners drink and food gift collection, 2019
- John Lewis delights customers with new Quality Street personalisation service
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- Figure 45: John Lewis customisable Quality Street tin, 2019
- Black Friday
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- Figure 46: Black Cat Friday, 2020
- Amazon’s Home of Black Friday pop-up store in Lambeth
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- Figure 47: Amazon’s ‘Home of Black Friday’ event in Lambeth, 2019
- Giffgaff’s ‘Black Out’ Black Friday pop-up
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- Figure 48: Giffgaff’s Black Friday pop-up at Covent Garden, 2019
- DECIEM closes store and website on Black Friday
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- Figure 49: DECIEM store front on Black Friday, 2019
- Valentine’s Day
- Lush pop-up flower boutique
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- Figure 50: Lush flower boutique, 2019
- The Body Shop
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- Figure 51: The Body Shop personalisation, 2019
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Advertising expenditure peaks around Bonfire Night and Black Friday
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- Figure 52: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by month, 2018 and 2019
- Advertising spend concentrated in the final quarter of the year
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- Figure 53: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by quarter, as % of total spending, 2018 and 2019
- Total advertising spend up 7.6 % in 2019
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- Figure 54: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by month, 2018 and 2019
- TV share of advertising spend down year-on-year
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- Figure 55: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by media type, as a % of total spending, 2018 and 2019
- Digital advertising spend up year-on-year
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- Figure 56: Recorded advertising expenditure by all retailers, by media type, 2018 and 2019
- Key campaigns
- Back-to-School
- Halloween
- Costcutter’s ‘Scarily Good’ campaign
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- Figure 57: Costcutter ‘Scarily Good’ campaign for Halloween, 2019
- Christmas
- M&S Jump around advert
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- Figure 58: M&S’ ‘Jump Around’ Christmas campaign, 2019
- Valentine’s Day
- Eve Sleep
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- Figure 59: Eve Sleep ASMR advert for Valentine’s Day 2020
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Back-to-School sees decline in consumer spending in 2019
- Consumers look for a sustainable Valentine’s Day and Halloween
- Safety around fireworks a key issue for Bonfire Night
- Consumers shop for Christmas gifts during Black Friday
Back-to-School – What They Buy
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- Back-to-School purchasing grows
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- Figure 60: Back-to-School purchasing, September 2019
Back-to-School – How Much They Spend
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- Back-to-School is an expensive event
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- Figure 61: Average amount spent on Back-to-School items, September 2019
Back-to-School – Where They Buy
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- In-store drives Back-to-School purchases
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- Figure 62: How they shopped for Back-to-School items, September 2019
Back-to-School – Which Retailer They Shop At
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- Supermarkets the go to channel for Back-to-School items
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- Figure 63: Where they shopped for Back-to-School items, September 2019
Back-to-School – Shopping Actions
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- Parents buy ‘generous fit’ school wear
- In-store shoe fitting services appeal to Back-to-School parents
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- Figure 64: Back-to-School shopping actions, September 2019
Back-to-School – Shopping Behaviours
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- Parents think school should be more relaxed about uniform policies
- More than half of parents prefer retailers who accommodate children with different needs
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- Figure 65: Back-to-School behaviours, September 2019
Back-to-School Shopping Attitudes
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- Parents want more inclusive Back-to-School footwear services
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- Figure 66: Back-to-School shopping attitudes, September 2019
Halloween – What They Buy
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- Chocolates and sweets most popular during Halloween
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- Figure 67: Spending on Halloween, 2018-19
Halloween – How Much They Spend
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- Spending on Halloween continues to grow
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- Figure 68: Average amount spent on Halloween products, 2018 and 2019
Halloween – How They Shop
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- In-store still the prefer way to shop for Halloween products
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- Figure 69: How consumers shop for Halloween/Bonfire Night products in 2019
Halloween – Where They Shop
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- Tesco the go-to retailer for Halloween products
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- Figure 70: Where they shop for Halloween products, November 2019
Halloween – Activities
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- Pumpkin carving a favourite Halloween activity
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- Figure 71: What activities they did to celebrate Halloween and Bonfire Night, November 2019
Halloween – Behaviours
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- Opportunities to extend recycling schemes for Halloween costumes
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- Figure 72: Halloween behaviours, November 2019
Bonfire Night – What They Buy
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- Spending patterns on Bonfire Night similar to 2018
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- Figure 73: Spending on Bonfire Night, 2018-2019
Bonfire Night – How Much They Spend
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- The average spend on Bonfire Night products declines
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- Figure 74: Average amount spent on products for Bonfire Night, 2018-2019
Bonfire Night – How They Shop for Products
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- Consumers prefer to shop in-store
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- Figure 75: Average amount spent on Halloween and Bonfire Night products, 2018 and 2019
Bonfire Night – Where They Shop
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- Tesco remains the retail favourite
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- Figure 76: Where they shop for Bonfire Night products in 2019, November 2019
Bonfire Night Activities
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- Consumers celebrate Bonfire Night with fireworks
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- Figure 77: What activities they did to celebrate Bonfire Night and Halloween, November 2019
Bonfire Night Behaviours
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- Safety above all on Bonfire Night
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- Figure 78: Bonfire Night behaviours, November 2019
Black Friday – How They Shopped
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- 16-24s drive online purchases of items during Black Friday
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- Figure 79: How they purchased items during Black Friday in 2019, December 2019
Black Friday – What They Purchased
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- Figure 80: Black Friday purchasing in 2019, December 2019
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Black Friday – Who They Purchased For
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- Consumers buy items for themselves during Black Friday
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- Figure 81: Who consumers purchased for during Black Friday in 2019, December 2019
Black Friday Behaviours
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- Black Friday deals disappoint and overwhelm consumers
- Black Friday is a good way for retailers to give back
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- Figure 82: Black Friday shopping behaviours, December 2019
Valentine’s Day – What They Buy
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- Greetings cards remain a popular token of love for Valentine’s Day
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- Figure 83: Gift purchasing for Valentine’s Day, 2019 and 2020
Valentine’s Day – What Activities They Do
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- Dining out surpasses special meal/food at home in 2020
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- Figure 84: Activity spending for Valentine’s Day, 2019 and 2020
- Valentine’s Day gift spending increases
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- Figure 85: Average spend per consumer on Valentine’s day gifts in 2019 and 2020, February 2020
Valentine’s Day – Who They Buy Gifts For
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- Most Valentine’s Day gift shopper buy for their partners
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- Figure 86: Who they spent money on a gift or activity for on Valentine’s Day, February 2020
Valentine’s Day Behaviours
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- Over half of consumers think Valentine’s Day gift buying is wasteful
- Valentine's Day should be more inclusive towards singles
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- Figure 87: Valentine’s day behaviours, February 2020
Valentine’s Day – Why They Don’t Celebrate
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- Figure 88: Consumers who opted out of Valentine’s day in 2020, February 2020
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Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
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