Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Macro-economic conditions were broadly positive in the lead-up…
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- Figure 1: Real incomes growth: average weekly earnings growth versus inflation, Jan 2016-Jan 2020
- …but political uncertainty disrupted demand
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- Figure 2: Financial confidence tracker, Jan 2018 – Dec 19
- Uncertainty allowed Black Friday to shine
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- Figure 3: Behaviours of Black Friday shoppers, December 2019
- Retail sales remain positive but see lowest growth for four years
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- Figure 4: Growth in all retail sales (excluding fuel) November and December combined, non-seasonally adjusted, 2015-19
- Online the standout winner of 2019
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- Figure 5: Online share of all retail sales, by month, Oct-Dec 2017-19
- Leading players
- Food sales hold up well, but non-foods suffer
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- Figure 6: Key retail categories value growth in November and December 2019
- Above-the-line expenditure dips in 2019
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- Figure 7: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total and annual change in spending by retailers on advertising during Q4, 2015-19
- A glitter-free and greener Christmas for retailers
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- Figure 8: M&S glitter free cards and gift wrapping, 2019
- The consumer
- 86% gave Christmas gifts in 2019
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- Figure 9: Who they give gifts to, December 2018 and 2019
- Similar numbers now shop online compared to in-store
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- Figure 10: How they shop for Christmas gifts, December 2019
- Growth in the gifting of beauty and personal care products
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- Figure 11: What consumers give as gifts for Christmas, December 2018 and 2019
- Spending falls in 2019
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- Figure 12: Average spending on gifts for Christmas 2019, by age, December 2019
- Significant demand comes before November
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- Figure 13: When gift buyers began their shopping, December 2019
- Most ask recipients what they would like
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- Figure 14: The pre-Christmas present buying process, December 2019
- Sustainability high on the agenda
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- Figure 15: Attitudes to Christmas gift buying, December 2019
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Less is more: a one-off or an emerging trend?
- The facts
- The implications
- Christmas Creep: A way to tackle Black Friday?
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Macro-economic conditions were broadly positive in the lead-up…
- …but political uncertainty disrupted demand
- Uncertainty allowed Black Friday to shine
- Retail sales remain positive but see lowest growth for four years
- Online the standout winner of 2019
Market Drivers: The lead up to Christmas 2019
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- The macro backdrop paints a mixed picture
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- Figure 16: Real incomes growth: average weekly earnings growth versus inflation, Jan 2016-Jan 2020
- Retail sales hold up, but demand has been held back
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- Figure 17: All retail sales, excluding fuel, non-seasonally adjust value and volume growth, Jan 2018 – Dec 2019
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- Figure 18: All retail sales (excluding fuel), annual non-seasonally adjust value growth, food, non-food and non-store, 2015-19
- Confidence takes a dip in the lead-up to Christmas
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- Figure 19: Financial confidence tracker, Jan 2018 – Dec 19
- The hit to confidence in October is important
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- Figure 20: Impact on spending plans by potential ‘no-deal’ Brexit scenario, September 2019
Retail Sales Performance
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- Overall demand looked to hold up well in December…
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- Figure 21: All retail sales (excluding fuel) growth in December in value and volume, non-seasonally adjusted, 2015-19
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- Figure 22: Retail sales growth: ONS vs BRC, Jan 2018 – Dec 2019
- …however, when Black Friday is accounted for demand looks weaker
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- Figure 23: Growth in all retail sales (excluding. fuel) November and December combined, non-seasonally adjusted, 2015-19
- A poor Christmas for store-based non-food retailers
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- Figure 24: Growth in all retail sales (excluding fuel), by major category. November and December combined, non-seasonally adjusted, 2017-19
Black Friday
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- Black Friday is no longer a single day
- 38% of consumers purchased during Black Friday 2019
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- Figure 25: What consumers purchased during Black Friday 2019, December 2019
- Gifting an important part of Black Friday
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- Figure 26: Who they bought for during Black Friday 2019, December 2019
- There is scepticism around deals, but Black Friday does displace demand
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- Figure 27: Behaviours of Black Friday shoppers, December 2019
Online
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- Online continues to grow, although growth slows in 2019
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- Figure 28: All online retail sales growth, and online as a % of all retail sales, 2016-19
- Online-only retailers grow their share of the online market in 2019
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- Figure 29: Share of online retail sales by type of retailer, 2015-19
- The trends in the festive period mirrored the wider year
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- Figure 30: Online share of all retail sales, by month, Oct-Dec 2017-19
Leading Retailers– What You Need to Know
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- Food sales hold up well, but non-foods suffer
- The discounters outperform the market
- Online players excel
- Above-the-line expenditure dips in 2019
- A glitter-free and greener Christmas for retailers
Retailer Christmas Trading Performance
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- Retail sales performance by sector
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- Figure 31: Retail sales, by sector, year-on-year growth, December 2019
- Reported retailers’ results
- Grocers: value players come out on top
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- Figure 32: Food retailers’ reported Christmas sales performance, 2019
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- Figure 33: Specialist food and drink retailers’ Christmas sales performance, 2019
- Fashion: online-only players quickest growing
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- Figure 34: Fashion retailers’ Christmas sales performance, 2019
- Department stores: John Lewis has a difficult Christmas
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- Figure 35: Department stores’ Christmas sales performance, 2019
- Electricals, home and furniture: a mixed picture
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- Figure 36: Electricals, home and furniture specialists’ Christmas sales performance, 2019
- Mixed goods and miscellaneous specialists
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- Figure 37: Mixed goods and miscellaneous specialists’ Christmas sales performance, 2019
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Fourth quarter advertising expenditure declines in 2019
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- Figure 38: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total and annual change in spending by retailers on advertising during Q4, 2015-19
- Amazon is the biggest advertising spender in Q4
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- Figure 39: Leading retailers’ spending on recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising, October-December 2019
- 35% of spend takes place in Q4
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- Figure 40: Leading retailers’ spending on recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising, Q1-3 and Q4 split, 2019
- TV dominates spending in Q4
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- Figure 41: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising spend by retailers, by media type, Q4 2019
- Supermarkets lead spending in Q4
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- Figure 42: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising spend by retailers, by advertiser type, Q4 2019
- Key campaigns
- John Lewis and Waitrose
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- Figure 43: John Lewis and Waitrose ‘Excitable Edgar’, 2019
- Argos Book of Dreams Christmas advert
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- Figure 44: Argos ‘Book of Dreams’ advert, 2019
- IKEA’s ‘Silence the Critics’ campaign
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- Figure 45: IKEA’s ‘Silence the Critics’ advert, 2019
- Homebase unveiled its first Christmas advert since 2015
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- Figure 46: The Monster Fairy from Homebase Christmas advert, 2019
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Trends and Innovations for Christmas 2019
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- Retailers spread the spirit of Christmas with festive pop-ups
- A gift for every ‘type’ with Boots ‘Bootique’ pop-ups
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- Figure 47: Boot’s Bootique pop-ups, 2019
- White Stuff opens its first pop-up for Christmas
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- Figure 48: White Stuff pop-up store at St Pancras International station, 2019
- Sainsbury’s Giving Store
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- Figure 49: Sainsbury’s Giving Store, 2019
- Chocolate gets personal with retailers’ festive customisation deals
- John Lewis’ Kit Kat personalisation service in-store
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- Figure 50: Create your own Kit Kat at John Lewis, 2019
- ‘Pick and mix’ your own box of chocolate Lindt at Sainsbury’s
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- Figure 51: A Lindt Lindor stall at Sainsbury’s in Chiswick, 2019
- John Lewis aimed to delight customers with a new and exclusive Quality Street service
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- Figure 52: John Lewis customisable Quality Street service, 2019
- A glitter-free and ‘greener’ Christmas for retailers
- M&S removes glitter from its entire Christmas range
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- Figure 53: M&S glitter free cards and gift wrapping, 2019
- Lush’s conveyor belt of naked gifts
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- Figure 54: Lush Christmas gift conveyor belt, 2019
- Figure 55: Lush Christmas advent calendar, 2019
- Aldi’s sustainable Christmas trees
- A Christmas Tale retold
- Liberty London Bonsai tree
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- Figure 56: The Tree of Liberty, 2019
- Selfridges ‘modern’ Christmas shop
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- Figure 57: Selfridges’ Christmas shop, 2019
- Lancôme St Pancras pop-up
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- Figure 58: Lancôme pop up at St Pancras International, 2019
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- 86% gave Christmas gifts in 2019
- Similar numbers now shop online compared to in-store
- Growth in the gifting of beauty and personal care products
- Spending falls in 2019
- Significant demand comes before November
- Sustainability high on the agenda
- Most ask recipients what they would like
- There is support for the high street, but price and convenience still the priority
Who They Give Gifts To
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- Gift buying for Christmas in 2019 is a family affair
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- Figure 59: Who they give gifts to, December 2018 and 2019
- Mothers with young children have the widest repertoire to buy for
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- Figure 60: Repertoire of the number of recipients Christmas gifts bought for, December 2019
How They Purchase Gifts
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- Young shoppers most likely to use smartphones for Christmas gift buying
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- Figure 61: How consumers bought Christmas gifts, December 2018 and 2019
- Consumers use both in-store and online channels for Christmas gift buying
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- Figure 62: How they shop for Christmas gifts, December 2019
What They Buy
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- Females both old and young buy beauty and personal care items as gifts
- Books remain a popular Christmas gift
- Food and Drink continues to be an important part of celebrating Christmas
- Gifting of toys and games during Christmas becomes more popular compared to 2018
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- Figure 63: What consumers give as Christmas gifts, December 2018 and 2019
How Much They Spent
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- A fifth say they spent more this Christmas
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- Figure 64: Changes in spending on Christmas gifts, December 2019
- On average, consumers spent £326 on Christmas gifts in 2019
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- Figure 65: Average spending on gifts for Christmas 2019, by age, December 2019
- Parents spend far more
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- Figure 66: Average spending on gifts for Christmas 2019, by parental status and age of children, December 2019
When They Buy
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- 39% have started their Christmas shopping by October
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- Figure 67: When gift buyers began their shopping, December 2019
- Females aged 45-64 most likely to start their shopping early
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- Figure 68: When gift buyers began their shopping, by age and gender, December 2019
- Those with young children more likely to spend the most early
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- Figure 69: When gift buyers began their shopping, December 2019
- Targeting shoppers early has significant benefits
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- Figure 70: When gift buyers began their shopping, by age and gender, December 2019
The Pre-Gift Buying Process
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- Most get gift ideas from the recipient
- More look for inspiration online than in-store
- List building important
- Promotions are waited for
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- Figure 71: The pre-Christmas present buying process, December 2019
Attitudes Towards Christmas Gift Giving
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- The level of discounting around Christmas means there is little need to pay full price
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- Figure 72: Attitudes towards promotions and Brexit, December 2019
- Sustainability high on the agenda and could point towards the future of gift giving
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- Figure 73: Attitudes toward sustainable gift giving, December 2019
- There is support for the high-street, but price perceptions still value online
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- Figure 74: Attitudes toward sustainable gift giving, December 2019
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Data sources
- VAT
- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
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