Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: Estimated retail sales of liquid milk, by volume, NI and RoI, 2015-19
- Forecast
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- Figure 2: Estimated retail sales of liquid milk, by value, NI and RoI, 2015-25
- Market factors
- Farmgate milk prices falling in 2019
- Milk price rises edge up in 2019 but remain below 2018 levels
- ‘No-deal’ Brexit could have cost implications for Irish milk producers
- Own-label milks favoured by Irish consumers
- Companies, brands and innovations
- The consumer
- Irish consumers continue to prefer animal milk
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- Figure 3: Types of dairy and non-dairy milk that consumers have used or served in the last three months, NI and RoI, November 2019
- Chilled milk preferred by Irish consumers
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- Figure 4: Usage of chilled and non-chilled milk in the last three months, NI and RoI, November 2019
- NI and RoI consumers have different milk preferences
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- Figure 5: Types of milk that consumers have used in the last three months, NI and RoI, November 2019
- NI consumers willing to spend £1-1.49 on milk; RoI consumers prepared to pay €2+
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- Figure 6: How much consumers would be willing to pay for a 2-litre container of standard white cow’s milk, NI, November 2019
- Figure 7: How much consumers would be willing to pay for a 2-litre container of standard white cow’s milk, RoI, November 2019
- Irish consumers encouraging children to drink more milk and milk alternatives
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- Figure 8: Agreement with statements related to health and milk/milk alternatives, NI and RoI, November 2019
- Consumers trust retailers to ensure animal welfare standards
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- Figure 9: Attitudes towards sustainability in milk, NI and RoI, November 2019
- Supporting local milk producers important to Irish consumers
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- Figure 10: Attitudes towards supporting local milk producers, NI and RoI, November 2019
- Irish consumers think non-dairy milks are heavily processed
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- Figure 11: Attitudes towards milk and milk alternatives, NI and RoI, November 2019
- What we think
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Milk sales will continue to grow in 2019
- 2019 see farmgate milk decline
- Price of milk rising slower in 2019
- Brexit an issue for Irish milk producers
Market Size and Forecast
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- 2019 to see growth in milk sales
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- Figure 12: Estimated retail sales of liquid milk, by value, IoI, NI, and RoI, 2015-25
- Milk volume sales flat in 2019
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- Figure 13: Estimated retail sales of liquid milk, by volume, IoI, NI, and RoI, 2015-19
- Irish consumers favouring whole milk
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- Figure 14: Estimated retail sales of liquid milk, by volume, by type of milk, RoI, 2015-19
- Non-dairy milks remain popular
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- Figure 15: Estimated retail sales of non-dairy milk, by value, IoI, NI, and RoI, 2015-25
Market Drivers
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- Milk prices declining across the island of Ireland
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- Figure 16: Average yearly milk prices, pence per litre, NI, 2014-19
- Figure 17: Average yearly milk prices, cents per litre, RoI, 2014-19
- Brexit to impact Irish milk sector
- Milk price rises lower in 2019
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- Figure 18: Food price inflation vs milk prices, UK (including NI), January 2018-October 2019
- Figure 19: Food price inflation vs milk prices, RoI, January 2018-October 2019
- Animal welfare high on the agenda for Irish consumers
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- Figure 20: Top five environmental and ethical issues most important to consumers, NI and RoI, November 2018
- Own-label milk popular among consumers
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- Figure 21: Consumers’ preferences for branded vs own-label groceries, NI and RoI, September 2019
Companies and Innovations – What You Need to Know
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- Strong growth in milk-alternative NPD
- Sustainability main claims made by milk and milk-alternative producers
- Milk and milk-alternative category driven by own-label NPD
Who’s Innovating?
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- Strong NPD levels in the UK and Irish milk category
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- Figure 22: Milk and milk-alternative products launched, UK and Ireland, 2015-19
- Dairy-alternative NPD continues to grow
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- Figure 23: New dairy and non-dairy milk product launches, by sub-category, UK and Ireland, 2015-19
- Own-label driving milk and milk-alternative NPD
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- Figure 24: Branded versus own-label milk and milk-alternative product launches, UK and Ireland, 2015-19
- Ethical claims dominate milk and non-dairy NPD
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- Figure 25: New milk and milk-alternative products launched, by top 10 claims, UK and Ireland, 2015-19
- Rebel Kitchen supporting female farmers
Companies and Brands
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- Alpro
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Brand NPD
- Recent developments
- Arla Foods UK
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Brand NPD
- Recent developments
- Arrabawn
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Aurivo
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- Dale Farm
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- Draynes Farms
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Glanbia
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Brand NPD
- Recent developments
- Kerry Group
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- Lakeland Dairies Group
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- Ornua
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Brand NPD
- Strathroy Dairy
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Standard cow’s milk remains popular among Irish consumers
- Chilled milk favoured by Irish consumers
- Strong difference in milk preferences in NI and RoI
- Provenance remains important to Irish consumers
- Irish consumers think milk alternatives are heavily processed
Milk and Non-dairy Substitutes Used
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- Irish consumers continue to prefer standard cow’s milk
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- Figure 26: Types of dairy and non-dairy milk that consumers have used or served in the last three months, NI and RoI, November 2019
- Standard cow’s milk remains popular
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- Figure 27: Consumers who have used or served standard cow’s milk in the last three months, by gender and age, NI and RoI, November 2019
- Milk alternatives popular among ABC1s
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- Figure 28: Types of milk alternatives that consumers have used or served in the last three months, by social class, NI, November 2019
- Figure 29: Types of milk alternatives that consumers have used or served in the last three months, by social class, RoI, November 2019
Usage of Chilled and Non-chilled Milk
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- Chilled milk favoured by Irish consumers
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- Figure 30: Usage of chilled and non-chilled milk in the last three months, NI and RoI, November 2019
- UHT milk appeals to full-time workers
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- Figure 31: Consumers who have used non-chilled milk (eg UHT) in the last three months, by work status, NI and RoI, November 2019
- Chilled milk broadly popular in NI, preferred by affluent consumers in RoI
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- Figure 32: Consumers who have used chilled milk in the last three months, by household income, NI, November 2019
- Figure 33: Consumers who have used chilled milk in the last three months, by household income, RoI, November 2019
Type of Milk Used
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- Semi-skimmed popular in NI, whole milk in RoI
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- Figure 34: Types of milk that consumers have used in the last three months, NI and RoI, November 2019
- Milk popular among affluent consumers
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- Figure 35: Types of milk that consumers have used in the last three months, by social class, NI, November 2019
- Figure 36: Types of milk that consumers have used in the last three months, by social class, RoI, November 2019
- Irish men the main users of whole milk
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- Figure 37: Consumers who have used whole milk in the last three months, by gender, NI and RoI, November 2019
How Much Consumers are Prepared to Spend on Milk
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- Consumers prepared to pay €2+ for milk in RoI
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- Figure 38: How much consumers would be willing to pay for a 2-litre container of standard white cow’s milk, RoI, November 2019
- Working consumers willing to spend over €2 for two litres of standard milk
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- Figure 39: Consumers who are willing to spend €2 or more for a 2-litre container of standard white cow’s milk, by work status, RoI, November 2019
- £1-1.49 the amount NI consumers are prepared to spend on milk
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- Figure 40: How much consumers would be willing to pay for a 2-litre container of standard white cow’s milk, NI, November 2019
- NI women willing to spend between £1 and £1.49 for milk
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- Figure 41: Consumers who are willing to spend between £1 and £1.49 for a 2-litre container of standard white cow’s milk, by gender, NI, November 2019
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- Figure 42: Consumers’ preferences for branded vs own-label dairy (eg milk), by gender, NI, September 2019
Health Perceptions of Milk and Milk Alternatives
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- Milk seen as important source of vitamins
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- Figure 43: Agreement with statements related to health and milk/milk alternatives, NI and RoI, November 2019
- Parents most likely see nutritional benefits of milk
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- Figure 44: Agreement with the statement ‘I think milk is an important source of vitamins in my diet’, by presence of children in the household, NI and RoI, November 2019
Sustainability in Milk
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- Retailers expected to adhere to animal welfare standards in milk
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- Figure 45: Attitudes towards sustainability in milk, NI and RoI, November 2019
- Young consumers switching to milk alternatives for environmental reasons
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- Figure 46: Agreement with the statement ‘Environmental reasons would encourage me to switch from standard milk to milk alternatives’, by age, NI and RoI, November 2019
Supporting Local Milk Producers
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- Local sourced milk preferred by Irish consumers
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- Figure 47: Attitudes towards supporting local milk producers, NI and RoI, November 2019
- ABC1 consumers prefer milk sourced locally
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- Figure 48: Agreement with statements relating to supporting local milk producers, by social class, NI, November 2019
- Figure 49: Agreement with statements relating to supporting local milk producers, by social class, RoI, November 2019
Attitudes towards Milk and Milk Alternatives
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- Irish consumers interested in doorstep milk delivery
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- Figure 50: Attitudes towards milk and milk alternatives, NI and RoI, November 2019
- Doorstep milk delivery service appeals to rural consumers
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- Figure 51: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be interested in subscribing to doorstep milk delivery’, by location, NI, November 2019
- Figure 52: Agreement with the statement ‘I would be interested in subscribing to doorstep milk delivery’, by location, RoI, November 2019
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Data sources
- Market size rationale
- Generational cohort definitions
- Abbreviations
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