Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Majority of non-dairy milk consumers drink dairy milk
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- Figure 1: Dairy milk consumption – Any adult consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
- Soy milk continues to lose ground
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- Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- Room for more frequent consumption
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- Figure 3: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, January 2016
- The opportunities
- Accentuate natural qualities
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- Figure 4: Non-dairy milk preferred attributes – Any rank, January 2016
- Emphasize taste, health benefits
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- Figure 5: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, January 2016
- New opportunities with functionality
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- Figure 6: Non-dairy milk innovation, January 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Non-dairy milk category sees stellar growth
- Almond, coconut, “other” non-dairy milk segments on the rise
- Dairy milk category sees declines
- Health, media attention drive non-dairy milk growth
Market Size and Forecast
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- Non-dairy milk category sees stellar growth
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Market Breakdown
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- Almond, coconut, “other” non-dairy milk segments on the rise
- Almond milk
- Soy milk
- Coconut milk
- Other non-dairy milk
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
- “Other” non-dairy milk experiences strongest growth through 2020
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, by percentage change, at current prices, 2010-20
- All channels experience sales gains from 2013-15
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
- Natural channel non-dairy milk sales grow
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- Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks Dec. 1, 2013 to Nov. 29, 2015
- Almond milk leading segment at natural channels
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- Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, by type, at current prices, 52-weeks ending Nov. 29, 2015
Market Perspective
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- Dairy milk category sees declines
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- Figure 15: Total US sales and forecast of dairy and non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Vast majority of non-dairy drinkers consume dairy milk
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- Figure 18: Dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
Market Factors
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- Non-dairy milk’s healthful image challenged in the media
- Health concerns remain top-of-mind with consumers
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- Figure 19: Important to achieve good health – Any top three rank, May 2015
- Millennial population has positive growth
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- Figure 20: Population by generation, 2011-21
- Hispanic population growing
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- Figure 21: Population by Hispanic origin, 2011-21
- Overlap between Millennials, acculturated Hispanics, and parents
- Millennials as parents
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- Figure 22: Households with own children, by age of householder, 2013
- Hispanics as parents
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- Figure 23: Households with own children, by Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
- Hispanics as Millennials
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- Figure 24: Generations, by Hispanic origin, 2016
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Private label, noncategory leaders see strongest growth
- Almond, coconut, “other” milks see success at MULO channels
- Soy milk continues to lose at MULO channels
- Non-dairy milks see flavor, function innovation
Manufacturer Sales of Non-dairy Milk
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- Private label, noncategory leaders see strongest growth
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- Figure 25: MULO sales of non-dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
- Manufacturer sales of non-dairy milk
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- Figure 26: MULO sales of non-dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s Working?
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- Almond milks’ popularity continues at MULO channels
- Coconut milk sees MULO sales gains across leading companies, brands
- “Other” non-dairy milks experience stellar growth
What’s Struggling?
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- Soy milk continues to lose at MULO channels
What’s Next?
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- New non-dairy milks and blends offer flavor, health opportunities
- Room for more functionality
- Global innovation features new flavors, forms
- Non-dairy milk + fruit
- Seasonal, sophisticated, and unique flavors
- Cold-pressed
- Smoothie potential in the non-dairy milk space
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Consumers drink many different types of non-dairy milks
- Nearly all non-dairy milk drinkers also drink dairy milk
- Majority of adults drink non-dairy milk
- 54% of children drink non-dairy milk
- Non-dairy milk drinkers equally likely to be frequent, moderate users
- Majority use non-dairy milk as an additive, ingredient
- Consumers want natural non-dairy milks
- Majority purchase refrigerated, chilled non-dairy milk
- Taste top reason to drink non-dairy milk, followed by health
- Extra protein, nutrition can encourage new, increased consumption
- Many consumers view dairy and non-dairy milk similarly
Cross-Consumption of Non-dairy Milks
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- Consumers drink multiple non-dairy milks types
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- Figure 27: Non-dairy milk consumption – Adult consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Adult consumption of soy/almond/cashew/coconut milks, January 2016
- Non-dairy milk consumption on the rise at home, at foodservice
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- Figure 28: Beverage Tracker – Non-dairy milk consumption, June 2014 to September 2015
Cross-Consumption of Non-dairy and Dairy Milk
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- Nearly all non-dairy milk drinkers also drink dairy milk
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- Figure 29: Dairy milk consumption – Any adult consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, January 2016
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- Figure 30: Dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption of soy milk/almond milk/rice milk/oat milk/cashew milk/coconut milk, January 2016
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- Figure 31: Dairy milk consumption – Any consumption, by non-dairy milk consumption – Any consumption of flax seed milk/hemp milk/hazelnut milk/quinoa milk/sunflower milk/other nut milks, January 2016
Core Consumers – Adult Consumption
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- 58% of adults drink non-dairy milk
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- Figure 32: Non-dairy milk consumption – Adult consumption, January 2016
- Older Millennials heaviest non-dairy milk drinkers
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- Figure 33: Non-dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by Millennial generation, January 2016
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- Figure 34: Any non-dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by gender and age, January 2016
- Parents more likely to drink non-dairy milk than non-parents
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- Figure 35: Non-dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by parental status, January 2016
- Hispanics active non-dairy milk drinkers
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- Figure 36: Non-dairy milk consumption – Personal consumption, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
Core Consumers – Child(ren) Consumption
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- 54% of children drink non-dairy milk
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- Figure 37: Non-dairy milk consumption – Child(ren) consumption, January 2016
Consumption Frequency
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- Non-dairy milk drinkers equally likely to be frequent, moderate users
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- Figure 38: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, January 2016
- Older Millennials frequent non-dairy milk drinkers
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- Figure 39: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, by generation, January 2016
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- Figure 40: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, by parental status, January 2016
- Opportunity to increase Blacks’ non-dairy milk consumption
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- Figure 41: Non-dairy milk consumption frequency, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2016
Consumption Habits
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- Majority use non-dairy milk as an additive, ingredient
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- Figure 42: Non-dairy milk consumption habits – Addition or ingredient, January 2016
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- Figure 43: Non-dairy milk consumption habits – Addition or ingredient, by generation, January 2016
- Highlighting functional attributes of non-dairy milk through occasion
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- Figure 44: Non-dairy milk consumption habits – As a drink or meal, January 2016
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- Figure 45: Non-dairy milk consumption habits – As a drink or meal, by generation, January 2016
Preferred Attributes
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- Consumers want natural non-dairy milks
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- Figure 46: Non-dairy milk preferred attributes – Any rank, January 2016
- Older Millennials look for natural, organic, flavored non-dairy milks
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- Figure 47: Non-dairy milk preferred attributes – Any rank, by generation, January 2016
Attitudes and Behaviors toward Non-dairy Milk
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- Majority purchase refrigerated, chilled non-dairy milk
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- Figure 48: Non-dairy milk attitudes and behaviors, January 2016
- Millennials drink non-dairy milk outside the home, make at home
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- Figure 49: Non-dairy milk attitudes and behaviors, by generation, January 2016
Reasons for Consuming
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- Taste top reason to drink non-dairy milk
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- Figure 50: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, January 2016
- Younger Millennials least likely to drink non-dairy milk for health reasons
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- Figure 51: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, by generation, January 2016
- Parents drink non-dairy milk for their health
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- Figure 52: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, by parental status, January 2016
- Opportunities for greater nutritional, flavor awareness with Hispanics
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- Figure 53: Reasons for consuming non-dairy milk, by Hispanic origin, January 2016
Non-dairy Milk Innovation
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- Extra protein, nutrition can encourage new, increased consumption
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- Figure 54: Non-dairy milk innovation, January 2016
- Older Millennials seek non-dairy milk innovation
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- Figure 55: Non-dairy milk innovation, by generation, January 2016
Milk Perceptions
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- Consumers view dairy and non-dairy milk similarly
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- Figure 56: Milk perceptions, January 2016
- Consumers in their own words
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 57: Total US sales and forecast of almond milk, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 58: Total US sales and forecast of almond milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 59: Total US sales and forecast of coconut milk, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 60: Total US sales and forecast of coconut milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 61: Total US sales and forecast of soy milk, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 62: Total US sales and forecast of soy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
- Figure 63: Total US sales and forecast of other non-dairy milks, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 64: Total US sales and forecast of other non-dairy milks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
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- Figure 65: US supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2010-15
- Figure 66: US sales of non-dairy milk through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 67: MULO sales of almond milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 68: MULO sales of coconut milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
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- Figure 69: MULO sales of soy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
- Figure 70: MULO sales of other non-dairy milks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
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