Table of Contents
Scope and Themes
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Data sources
- Sales data
- Mintel Menu Insights
- Consumer survey data
- Advertising creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Executive Summary
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- The challenge of a recession
- Declining same-store sales signals trouble with guest traffic
- It’s a “diner’s market”—value prices result from excess supply of restaurant choices
- Influential demographics—age and race/Hispanic origin
- Family restaurant analysis
- IHOP
- Denny’s
- Cracker Barrel
- Golden Corral
- Bob Evans Farms
- Menu focus: IHOP
- Advertising and promotion activity
- Menu innovation—comfort and breakfast
- Health on the menu—a long way to go
- The family restaurant consumer
- Where consumers go to eat
- Which family restaurants consumers go to
- Family restaurants and the ethnic consumer
- Family restaurants and “the family”
- What influences diners to choose family restaurants
- Reasons that drive choice of restaurants
- When, where and how consumers eat at restaurants
Insights and Opportunities
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- Key points
- Beverage menu opportunity—gourmet coffee
- Taking a cue from McDonald’s
- Beverages offered by family restaurants
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- Figure 1: Top family restaurant beverage items, by type, Q3 2007-Q3 2009
- “Recession obesity” now leads to health opportunity for the future
- Junk food and cheap eats
- Family restaurants poised to dish out the comfort…
- …but it’s time to be forward-thinking
- The big bonus—there’s money in health
Inspire Insights
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- Inspire trend: Spread Awareness Across the Social Web
- The social media advantage
- Supporting evidence
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- Figure 2: Change in adspend, top six family restaurant advertisers, 2007-08
- Implications
- Inspire trend: A Tea a Day Will Keep the Doctor at Bay
- A drink from health-claim heaven
- Supporting evidence
- Implications
Market Size and Forecast
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- Key points
- Declining same-store sales trends signal guest traffic troubles
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- Figure 3: Selected family restaurant chains same-store sales growth trends, 2005-09
- Family restaurants feeling pressure as diners trade down/out
- The future of family restaurants
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- Figure 4: Total U.S. systemwide sales of leading family restaurants, at current prices, 2005-13
- Figure 5: Total U.S. systemwide sales of leading family restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2005-13
Competitive Context
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- It’s a diner’s market
- Casual restaurants: Discounting galore and “all you can eat” specials
- QSR: Actively courting the breakfast consumer
- Pizza: A convenient family pleaser
- Fighting over the kids
Market Drivers
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- Restaurant industry recession continues, but the bottom may be in sight
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- Figure 6: Restaurant Performance Index, current situation, and expectations, May 2007-July 2009
- Consumer confidence undermines willingness to spend at restaurants
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- Figure 7: Consumer Sentiment Index, by quarter, 2001-09
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- Figure 8: Family restaurant spend compared to last year, by age, household income and race/Hispanic origin, July 2009
- Baby Boomers key consumers; Millennials offer growth potential
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- Figure 9: Usage of family restaurant, top restaurants, by age, February 2008-March 2009
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- Figure 10: Population aged 18 or older, 2004-14
- Usage among the fastest-growing ethnic groups lags
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- Figure 11: Usage of family restaurant, top restaurants, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2008-March 2009
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- Figure 12: Population, by race and Hispanic origin, 2004-14
Leading Companies
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- Key points
- Leading family restaurant chains weather the recessionary storm
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- Figure 13: U.S. systemwide sales of leading family restaurant chains, 2006-08
- Unit growth declining incrementally
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- Figure 14: U.S. systemwide units for leading family restaurant chains, 2006-08
Restaurant Analysis: IHOP
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- Key points
- Growth trends
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- Figure 15: Change in IHOP systemwide same-store sales, 2005-08
- Keeping the brand fresh and energized
- Value-oriented, limited-time offers
- Marketing and promotion drive brand awareness
- Demographic connections
- Attracting higher-income consumers through customizable options
- Maximizing appeal for parents of little ones
- Ethnic opportunities
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- Figure 16: Eat at IHOP, by age, race/Hispanic origin and household income, February 2008-March 2009
Restaurant Analysis: Denny’s
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- Key points
- Growth trends
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- Figure 17: Change in Denny’s same-store sales, 2005-08*
- Seeking improvements in 2009 through value and innovation
- Value—free food incentive to drive guest traffic
- Menu innovation—diversity plus a new burger focus
- Health initiatives—innovation on the kids’ menu
- Courting key demographics
- Making the late-night connection with its young diners
- Hispanics
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- Figure 18: Eat at Denny’s, by age and race/Hispanic origin, February 2008-March 2009
Restaurant Analysis: Cracker Barrel
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- Key points
- Growth trends
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- Figure 19: Change in Cracker Barrel systemwide same-store sales, 2005-09*
- A differentiated concept
- The front porch environment
- The retail shop
- Successful at lunch and dinner—driving average check higher
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- Figure 20: Cracker Barrel, share of sales by daypart, 2009
- Streamlining traditional menu
- The Cracker Barrel customer
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- Figure 21: Eat at Cracker Barrel, by age, region, race/Hispanic origin and presence of children, February 2008-March 2009
Restaurant Analysis: Golden Corral
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- Key points
- Growth trends
- The buffet advantage
- New prototype
- An abundance of choices for all
- Potential to expand ethnic reach
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- Figure 22: Eat at Golden Corral, by race/Hispanic origin, February 2008-March 2009
Restaurant Analysis: Bob Evans Farms
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- Key points
- Growth trends
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- Figure 23: Change in Bob Evans annual prices and systemwide same-store sales, 2005-09*
- Regional brand with national presence
- Home-style menu
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- Figure 24: Bob Evans Farms, share of sales, by daypart and average check, 2009
- Strong regional influence; little ethnic appeal
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- Figure 25: Eat at Bob Evans, by region and race/Hispanic origin, February 2008-March 2009
Menu Analysis: IHOP
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- Overview
- Menu favorites: Breakfast items are the clear winner
- Men look for heartier fare
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- Figure 26: IHOP menu ordering on last visit, by gender, July 2009
- Young diners look beyond the traditional breakfast menu when ordering
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- Figure 27: IHOP menu ordering on last visit, by age, July 2009
Advertising and Promotion
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- Overview
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- Figure 28: Top family restaurant chain advertisers, 2007 and 2008
- Targeting competition with a $5 price point
- Sizzler’s strategy: Limited value menu
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- Figure 29: Sizzler, 5 for $5, March 2009
- Bob Evans’ strategy: Value portions
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- Figure 30: Bob Evans, Deep Dish Pastas, September 2009
- Shoney’s strategy: Abundance
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- Figure 31: Shoney’s, Small Amounts of Food, September 2009
- Strategy: Value menu
- Justifying a higher price point
- Strategy: Entice customers who equate value with quantity and choice
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- Figure 32: Golden Corral, Amusement Park of Food, September 2009
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- Figure 33: Ponderosa, Freedom by the Plateful, July 2009
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- Figure 34: Friendly’s, Flip chart presentation, September 2009
Innovations and Innovators
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- Menu innovation
- Key points
- Comfort foods top innovation
- Homemade equals familiarity
- Country style equals southern comfort
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- Figure 35: Top family restaurant menu items, by marketing claim, Q3 2007-Q3 2009
- Breakfast innovation
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- Figure 36: Family restaurant usage, by daypart, July 2009
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- Figure 37: Top family restaurant menu items, by menu item dish, Q3 2007-Q3 2009
- Health on the menu
- Key points
- Health: Consumers’ perceptions
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- Figure 38: Consumer diet self-perceptions, degree of healthfulness, July 2009
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- Figure 39: Importance of eating healthy, degree of importance, July 2009
- Defining health
- Nutritional menu items lacking
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- Figure 40: Top family restaurant menu items, by nutritional claim, Q3 2007-Q3 2009
- Eliminating the veto factor
Restaurant Usage Overview
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- Key points
- Restaurant usage
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- Figure 41: Restaurant usage in last year, by selected demographics, July 2009
- Restaurant usage, by segment
- Demographic analysis
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- Figure 42: Usage of restaurant segments in past three months, by gender, July 2009
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- Figure 43: Usage of restaurant segments in past three months, by age, July 2009
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- Figure 44: Usage of restaurant segments in past three months, by household income, July 2009
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- Figure 45: Usage of restaurant segments in past three months, by presence of children in household, July 2009
- Consumer question explanation
Family Restaurant Usage
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- Key points
- 2000-08 usage trends
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- Figure 46: Usage of “top 6” family restaurants, 1999/2000-2007/08
- Family restaurant usage
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- Figure 47: Usage of leading family restaurant chains, by restaurant, July 2009
- Demographic analysis
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- Figure 48: Usage of leading family restaurant chains, by restaurant, by gender, July 2009
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- Figure 49: Usage of leading family restaurant chains, by restaurant, by age, July 2009
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- Figure 50: Usage of leading family restaurant chains, by restaurant, by presence of children, July 2009
Family Restaurant Usage—Impact of Race and Hispanic Origin
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- Key points
- Family restaurant usage by race/Hispanic origin
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- Figure 51: Top family restaurant usage, by restaurant, by race/Hispanic origin, October 2007-December 2008
- Acculturated versus non-acculturated Hispanics
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- Figure 52: Top family restaurant Hispanic usage, by restaurant, by degree of English spoken in home, October 2007-December 2008
Family Restaurant Usage and Kids
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- Key points
- Parents take kids to family restaurants
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- Figure 53: Likelihood of children going with parents to pizza, family and casual restaurants, July 2009
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- Figure 54: Likelihood of children going with parents to family restaurants, by selected demographics, July 2009
Family Restaurant Decision Influencers
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- Key points
- Competitive analysis: Pizza, family, and casual restaurants
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- Figure 55: Pizza, family, and casual restaurant decision influencers, July 2009
- Demographic analysis: Influencing factors for choosing family restaurants
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- Figure 56: Family restaurant influencers, by gender, July 2009
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- Figure 57: Family restaurant influencers, by age, July 2009
Family Restaurants: Reasons Consumers Choose Them
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- Key points
- Competitive analysis: Pizza, family and casual restaurants
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- Figure 58: Reasons to eat out at pizza, family and casual restaurants, July 2009
- Demographic analysis: Reasons consumers eat out at family restaurants
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- Figure 59: Reasons to eat out at family restaurants, by gender, July 2009
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- Figure 60: Reasons to eat out at family restaurants, by age, July 2009
Family Restaurants: Usage by Daypart
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- Key points
- Breakfast differentiates family restaurants
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- Figure 61: Restaurant mealtimes, daypart, by segment, July 2009
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- Figure 62: Family restaurant mealtimes, daypart, by gender, July 2009
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- Figure 63: Family restaurant mealtimes, daypart, by age, July 2009
Family Restaurant Usage by Procurement Method
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- Key points
- Competitive analysis: Pizza, family, and casual restaurants
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- Figure 64: Pizza, family and casual restaurant delivery, pickup and dine-in purchases, July 2009
- Demographic analysis: Procurement method at family restaurants
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- Figure 65: Family restaurant delivery, pickup and dine-in purchases, by age, July 2009
Cluster Analysis
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- Alternatives
- Who they are
- Opportunity
- Simple-ists
- Who they are
- Opportunity
- Familiars
- Who they are
- Opportunity
- Cluster characteristics
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- Figure 66: Family restaurant clusters, July 2009
- Figure 67: Family restaurant decision influencers, by family restaurant clusters, July 2009
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- Figure 68: Reasons to eat out at family restaurants, by family restaurant clusters, July 2009
- Figure 69: Family restaurant mealtimes, daypart, by family restaurant clusters, July 2009
- Cluster demographics
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- Figure 70: Family restaurant clusters, by gender, July 2009
- Figure 71: Family restaurant clusters, by age, July 2009
- Figure 72: Family restaurant clusters, by household income, July 2009
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- Figure 73: Family restaurant clusters, by race, July 2009
- Figure 74: Family restaurant clusters, by Hispanic origin, July 2009
- Cluster methodology
Custom Consumer: Marital Status and Presence of Children
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- Overview
- Singles without kids are the least likely users; married with kids are core users
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- Figure 75: Usage of family restaurants in past three months, by marital status and presence of children in household, July 2009
- Married couples look for cost-saving measures; those with kids influenced by media
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- Figure 76: Family restaurant influencers, by marital status and presence of children in the household, July 2009
- Family restaurants provide singles with a social scene and save households with kids some time
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- Figure 77: Reasons consumers eat out at family restaurants, by marital status and presence of children in household, July 2009
Appendix: Additional Consumer Tables—Income
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- Figure 78: Usage of leading family restaurant chains, by restaurant, by household income, July 2009
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- Figure 79: Reasons consumers eat out at family restaurants, by household income, July 2009
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- Figure 80: Family restaurant delivery, pickup and dine-in purchases, by household income, July 2009
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- Figure 81: Family restaurant mealtimes, by household income, July 2009
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Appendix: Trade Associations
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