Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Top takeaways
- Market overview
- Dairy yields to pricing pressures and recession
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-25
- Non-dairy milk continues to gain momentum
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- Figure 2: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on dairy and non-dairy milk
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- Figure 3: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on dairy and non-dairy milk, October 2020
- Challenges and Opportunities
- Re-emergence
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- Figure 4: Changes in purchase behavior, July 2020
- Remind consumers how milk(s) does a body good
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- Figure 5: Interest in health claims, July 2020
- Recovery
The Market – Key Takeaways
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- Dairy milk prices and supply continue on COVID-19 roller coaster
- Desire for health and wellness fuel interest in non-dairy milk
- Dairy milk still dominates, but non-dairy increasing its share of the pie
- Functional benefits are the new black
- Ingredients and flavor innovation reinvigorate the category
- Unique plant-based sources for non-dairy
Market Size and Forecast
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- Pandemic provides a boost to dairy and non-dairy milk sales
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- Figure 6: Total US sales of the milk market, at current prices, 2015-20
- Higher dairy milk prices and increased grocery spending lifts sales
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-25
- Health and wellness trends underscore non-dairy milk boom
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-25
- Impact of COVID-19 on dairy and non-dairy milk
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- Figure 9: Short-, medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on dairy and non-dairy milk, October 2020
- Lockdown
- Re-emergence
- Recovery
- COVID-19: US context
- Learnings from the last recession
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- Figure 10: Total US sales and forecast of dairy and non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2007-2012
Segment Performance
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- Non-dairy grows share of category sales
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales of milk, by segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- Refrigerated dairy milk accounts for bulk of segment sales
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
- Coconut and other non-dairy bases are on the fast track
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
Market Factors
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- Volatility of dairy prices
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- Figure 14: Average price of milk (gallon), January 2010-June 2020
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- Figure 15: Average price of milk (gallon) during pandemic, March-August 2020
- Pandemic-induced recession disrupts shopping habits
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- Figure 16: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000 – May 2020
- Adults aged 25-34 most engaged in category
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- Figure 17: Types of milk purchased, by age, July 2020
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- Figure 18: Population aged 18 or older, by age, 2014-24
- Families are a key demographic for milk marketers
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- Figure 19: Types of milk purchased, by parental status, July 2020
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- Figure 20: Households by presence of related children, 2008-18
Market Opportunities
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- Elevate nutritional profile with functional benefits
- Indulgence, global culinary influence delivers on experience
- Exploring new sources for non-dairy milk
- Beyond the supermarket
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- Figure 21: Total US retail sales of milk, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
- Address the taste issue
Companies and Brands – Key Takeaways
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- Private label dominates dairy milk
- Danone and Blue Diamond comprise majority of non-dairy sales
- Private label marketers accelerating product launch activity
Market Share
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- Dairy milk dominated by private label; growth evident in premium brands
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- Figure 22: US multi-outlet market share of dairy milk, by leading companies, 2020
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- Figure 23: US multi-outlet sales of dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Danone and Blue Diamond lead non-dairy milk
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- Figure 24: US multi-outlet market share of non-dairy milk, by leading companies, 2020
- Figure 25: US multi-outlet sales of non- dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Company/brand sales by segment
- Refrigerated dairy milk led by premium varieties
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- Figure 26: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated dairy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Flavor innovation invigorates shelf-stable dairy milk
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- Figure 27: Multi-outlet sales of shelf-stable dairy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Almond milk performance remains steadfast
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- Figure 28: Multi-outlet sales of almond milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Coconut milk booms with more players competing
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- Figure 29: Multi-outlet sales of coconut milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Soy milks continue to struggle
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- Figure 30: Multi-outlet sales of soy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
- Oat milk marketers drive growth
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- Figure 31: Multi-outlet sales of other non-dairy drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2019 and 2020
Competitive Strategies
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- MilkPEP reminds Americans to get milk
- Shift in 2020 strategy: Branded vs. Private Label
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- Figure 32: Dairy milk launches in the US, by private label, 2015-20*
- Private label ramps up non-dairy innovation
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- Figure 33: Non-dairy milk launches in the US, by private label, 2015-20*
- Premium brands prepare for increased competition in the dairy aisle
The Consumer – Key Takeaways
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- Dairy milk is a household staple; plant-based milks reach majority
- Dual purchases common, but dairy milk used most often
- Taste and function support dual purchase habits
- Plant based abstainers need convincing
- Plant-based milks may be trendy, but they fall short on taste perceptions
- Pandemic milk purchase surge already stabalized
- Milk’s a great start to the day
- Shifting from nutritional health to a functional focus
Milk Purchases
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- Dairy milk has broad penetration; plant-based milks are bought by 51%
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- Figure 34: Types of milk purchased (Net), July 2020
- Versatility of regular, unflavored milk keeps in on the grocery list
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- Figure 35: Types of milk purchased, July 2020
- Milk purchase is not singular
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- Figure: 36 Repertoire analysis – Repertoire of milk purchases, July 2020
- Millennials embrace plant-based milks
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- Figure 37: Types of milk purchased, by generation, July 2020
- Plant-based milks popular among parents with younger kids
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- Figure 38: Types of milk purchased, by children in household, July 2020
Milk Usage
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- Plant-based milks most often bought in addition to dairy milk
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- Figure 39: Types of milk purchased, by segment, July 2020
- Plant-based milks are mostly “one and done”
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- Figure 40: Types of milk purchased – repertoire of plant-based, July 2020
- Dairy milk used most often within household
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- Figure 41: Type of milk used most often, July 2020
- Plant-based milks popular among parents with younger kids
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- Figure 42: Type of milk used most often, by parental status, July 2020
Reasons for Dual Purchases
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- Taste and function support dual purchase habits
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- Figure 43: Reasons for dual purchases, July 2020
- Millennials enjoy the taste of dairy and non-dairy milks
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- Figure 44: Reasons for dual purchases, by generation, July 2020
- Parents seek multiple products to satisfy varied palates, needs
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- Figure 45: Reasons for dual purchases, by parental status, July 2020
- Lactose intolerance drives dual purchases among Blacks
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- Figure 46: Reasons for dual purchases, by race, July 2020
Barriers to Plant-based Milk Purchases
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- Figure 47: Barriers to plant-based milk purchases, July 2020
- Sorry plant-based milks, older consumers are just not that into you
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- Figure 48: Barriers to plant-based milk purchases, by age, July 2020
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Milk Associations
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- Dairy milks perceived as tasty; non-dairy milks considered trendy
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- Figure 49: Milk associations, July 2020
- Plant-based milks align as healthy for consumers and environment
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- Figure 50: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Milk associations, July 2020
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- Figure 51: Correspondence Analysis – Principal map – Milk associations, July 2020
Impact of COVID-19 on Milk Purchases
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- Pandemic has minimal impact on milk purchase behavior frequency
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- Figure 52: Changes in purchase behavior, July 2020
- Milk purchases among 55+ cohort remains unchanged
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- Figure 53: Changes in purchase behavior, by age, July 2020
- Purchase incidence among parents grows due to pandemic
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- Figure 54: Changes in purchase behavior, by parental status, July 2020
- At-home behaviors drive frequency of milk consumption
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- Figure 55: Reasons for buying more milk during COVID-19, July 2020
- Women use more milk for culinary purposes
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- Figure 56: Reasons for buying more milk during COVID-19, by gender, July 2020
Attitudes toward Milk
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- Milk – it’s what’s for breakfast
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- Figure 57: Attitudes toward milk, July 2020
- Millennials pay premium for local sourcing
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- Figure 58: Attitudes toward milk, by generation, July 2020
- Parents see milk as a healthy start to the day
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- Figure 59: Attitudes toward milk, by parental status, July 2020
Interest in Health Claims
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- Iconic milk claims still resonate with consumers
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- Figure 60: Interest in health claims, July 2020
- Women seek functional health benefits from milk
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- Figure 61: Interest in health claims, by gender, July 2020
- Gen Z focused on health claims that can benefit them now
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- Figure 62: Interest in health claims, by generation, July 2020
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 63: Total US sales and forecast of dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 64: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2015-25
- Figure 65: Total US sales and forecast of dairy milk, at segment, at current prices, 2015-25
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- Figure 66: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, at segment, at current prices, 2015-25
- Figure 67: Total US sales of refrigerated dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 68: Total US sales of shelf stable dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 69: Total US sales of almond milk, at current prices, 2015-20
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- Figure 70: Total US sales of coconut milk, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 71: Total US sales of soy milk, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 72: Total US sales of other non-dairy drinks, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 73: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
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- Figure 74: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, at channel, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 75: US supermarket sales of dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 76: US drugstore sales of dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-20
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- Figure 77: US sales of dairy milk through other retail channels, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 78: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2018 and 2020
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- Figure 79: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 80: US supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2015-20
- Figure 81: US sales of non-dairy milk through other retail channels, at current prices, 2015-20
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Appendix – Consumer
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- Methodology
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