Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- Market overview
- Five-year growth anchored by robust whiskey/whisky sales
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- Figure 1: Total US volume sales and forecast of dark spirits, by segment, 2014-22
- The issues
- Dark spirits characterized as an “old man’s drink”
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- Figure 2: White/dark spirit drinker demographics, September 2019
- Non-drinkers just don’t think dark spirits are for them
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- Figure 3: Reasons for not drinking dark spirits, September 2019
- The opportunities
- Millennials are engaged; don’t forget everyone else
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- Figure 4: Dark spirit consumption, among dark spirit drinkers, by generation, Part I, September 2019
- Cocktails are the path to expanding the base
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- Figure 5: Make cocktails at home, by key demographics, September 2019
- Keep it casual, premium, and lean into healthy innovation
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- Figure 6: Product interest, by generation, September 2019
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Spirits top $67 billion, trend expected to continue
- American and Irish whiskeys drive growth
- Trade wars, wellness trends and cannabis legalization pose challenges
Market Size and Forecast
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- Continued growth of $67 billion spirit market
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of distilled spirits, at current prices, 2014-2024
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of distilled spirits, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Breakdown
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- Whiskey/scotch/bourbon comprise leading share
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- Figure 9: Total market share of volume sales, by segment, 2019
- From 2017-19, brandy, cognac and Armagnac build share
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- Figure 10: Total US volume sales and forecast of dark spirits, by segment, 2017-2019
- Five-year trends show long-term growth of whiskey/whisky
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- Figure 11: Total US volume sales and forecast of dark spirits, by segment, 2014-22
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- Figure 12: US volume sales of whiskey/whisky, by type, 2014-19
- Straight American whisky and Irish whiskey drive sales and build share
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- Figure 13: US volume sales of whiskey/whisky, by type, 2014-19
- Figure 14: US volume sales of whiskey/whisky, by type, market share, 2017 and 2019
- On-premise spirit sales make gains
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- Figure 15: US volume sales of total distilled spirits, by channel, 2014-18
Market Perspective
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- Dark sprits are fourth most widely consumed alcoholic beverage
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- Figure 16: Alcohol consumption, most often and also drink, September 2019
- Spirits sales growth outpaces both wine and beer
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- Figure 17: US retail market size, spirits and wine/sparkling wine, 2017-19
- White spirit innovation could undercut dark spirit’s growth
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- Figure 18: Distribution of spirits sales by volume, by segment, 2019 (estimate)
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- Figure 19: Total US volume sales of spirits, by segment, 2017 and 2019
- RTD alcoholic beverages = competitive opportunity
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- Figure 20: Total US volume sales and forecast of flavored malt beverages, 2014-22
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- Figure 21: Total US volume sales and forecast of spirits-based prepared cocktails, 2014-22
- Spirit drinkers enjoy at-home cocktail making, seek premium mixers
- Cannabis legalization keeps brands on edge
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- Figure 22: Reasons for using cannabis, October 2019
Market Factors
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- Trade wars impact whiskey sales
- Engaging Gen Z is a challenge
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- Figure 23: consumption of dark spirits, by generation, September 2019
- Wellness and social trends may spur reduced, selective consumption
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- American and Irish whiskeys enjoy strong growth
- Brandy, cognac and Armagnac continue to build share
- Canadian whiskey and scotch see sales flag, and value brands struggle
- Brands should be poised for ecommerce sales
What’s Working?
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- American and Irish whiskeys propel the market forward
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- Figure 24: US Spirits market – whisky and scotch change in volume sales, by brand tier - 2018
- Whiskey – especially bourbon – also benefit from strong presence on cocktail menus
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- Figure 25: Bourbon cocktails - 2019
- Limited editions celebrate pop culture
- Small distilleries grow craft spirits
- Brandy, cognac and Armagnac continue to grow share
What’s Struggling?
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- Trade wars dampen scotch sales; Canadian whiskey lags
- Demand for premium leaves value spirits in decline
- Trade war likely to dampen overseas growth
- Rum sales comparably lackluster, with potential at the high end
What to Watch
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- Opportunities in online retail and subscription services
- Mobile apps may be valued by Millennials and engage with Gen Z
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Millennials drive dark spirit consumption
- Expand the base with women and Gen Z
- Cocktail recipes, premium mixers can take the edge off
- Premium innovation can widen the base
Alcohol Consumption
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- About a third consume dark spirits
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- Figure 26: Alcohol consumption, most often and also drink, September 2019
- Spirits “on the rocks” enjoy premium associations
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- Figure 27: Associations with alcoholic beverages, July 2019
- Dark spirits consumer base skews male, older and more affluent
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- Figure 28: White/dark spirit drinker demographics, September 2019
Change in Dark Spirit Consumption
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- Increased consumption of dark spirits buoys market
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- Figure 29: change in alcohol consumption, September 2019
- Millennials most likely to be increasing usage
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- Figure 30: change in dark spirits consumption, by generation, September 2019
Types of Dark Spirits
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- Bourbon and American whiskey continue to dominate
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- Figure 31: Dark spirit consumption, among dark spirit drinkers, September 2019
- Opportunities with women in rum, flavored whisky, brandy/cognac
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- Figure 32: Dark spirit consumption, among dark spirit drinkers, by gender, September 2019
- Millennials have broad palates and dark spirit repertoires
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- Figure 33: Dark spirit consumption, among dark spirit drinkers, by generation, September 2019
- Medium income HHs enjoy range of spirits, as everyday luxury
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- Figure 34: Dark spirit consumption, among dark spirit drinkers, by HH income, September 2019
Reasons for Not Drinking Dark Spirits
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- Taste limits usage
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- Figure 35: Reasons for not drinking dark spirits, September 2019
- Taste is a hurdle for women; health and cost deter some men
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- Figure 36: Reasons for not drinking dark spirits, by gender, September 2019
- Gen Z barriers can be overcome
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- Figure 37: Reasons for not drinking dark spirits, by generation, September 2019
Spirit Brand Tier Purchases
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- Popular and higher end spirits brands are most widely used
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- Figure 38: Spirit brand tier purchases, among exclusive spirit type drinkers, September 2019
- Millennials stand out as key to the super premium market
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- Figure 39: Spirit brand tier purchases, by generation, September 2019
- Income is a leading factor shaping brand choice
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- Figure 40: Spirit brand tier purchases, by HH income, September 2019
Spirit Occasions by Brand Tier
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- Occasion drives tier choice
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- Figure 41: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Spirit occasions by brand type, September 2019
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- Figure 42: Spirit occasions by brand type, September 2019
Making Cocktails At Home
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- More than three quarters of spirit consumers make cocktails at home
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- Figure 43: Make cocktails at home, by key demographics, September 2019
- More than half enjoy making cocktails from scratch
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- Figure 44: At home cocktail attitudes, among spirit drinkers who make cocktails at home, among exclusive spirit type drinkers, September 2019
- Millennials like cocktails at home
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- Figure 45: At home cocktail attitudes, among spirit drinkers who make cocktails at home, by generation, September 2019
Spirit Flavor Interest
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- In dark spirits, smoky and spicy flavors lead
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- Figure 46: Spirit flavor interest, among exclusive spirit type drinkers, September 2019
- Women seek sweet, fruity and floral flavors in their spirits
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- Figure 47: Spirit flavor interest, by gender, September 2019
- Millennials seek range of subtle flavors, while Gen Z wants dessert
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- Figure 48: Spirit flavor interest, by generation, September 2019
Spirit Behaviors
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- Almost a third of Gen Z have taken a break from alcohol
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- Figure 49: Spirit behaviors, by generation, September 2019
Spirit Product Interest
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- Robust opportunity in RTDs, functional and premium spirits
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- Figure 50: Product interest, among exclusive spirit type drinkers, September 2019
- RTD with added health benefits may be a gateway for women to dark spirits
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- Figure 51: Product interest, by gender, September 2019
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- Figure 52: Product interest, by generation, September 2019
Spirit Attitudes
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- Craft is at the heart of premium for dark spirits drinkers
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- Figure 53: Spirit attitudes, among exclusive spirit type drinkers, September 2019
- Gen Z is ripe for education and outreach
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- Figure 54: Spirit attitudes, by generation, September 2019
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- Figure 55: Health-related Spirit attitudes, by generation, September 2019
Spirit Purchasing Behaviors
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- About half know what brand they want, but still like to browse
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- Figure 56: Spirit purchasing behaviors, among exclusive spirit type drinkers, September 2019
- Men more likely to have set brand allegiance, but be nudged by sales
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- Figure 57: Spirit purchasing behaviors, by gender, September 2019
- Gen Zs and Millennials open to browsing, reviews, recommendations
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- Figure 58: Spirit purchasing behaviors, by generation, September 2019
Dark Spirit Associations
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- Spirits you gift may be different from what you purchase for yourself
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- Figure 59: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Dark spirit associations, September 2019
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- Figure 60: Dark spirit associations, September 2019
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Mintel Menu Insights
- Purchase Intelligence
- Mintel Market Sizes
- Mintel Food and Drink shopper segmentation
- Social media methodology
- Corrrespondence Analysis - Methodology
- TURF analysis - methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 61: Total US sales and forecast of distilled spirits, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 62: US volume sales and forecast of dark spirits, 2014-22
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- Figure 63: US volume sales and forecast of dark spirits, by segment, 2014-22
- Figure 64: US volume sales of dark and white distilled spirits, by channel, 2014-18
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