Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
- Dairy milk
- Non-dairy milk
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Dairy milk sales are steadily declining
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of dairy milk market, at current prices, 2014-24
- Purchase patterns stagnate the category
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- Figure 2: Purchasing shifts – Dairy milk and non-dairy milk, August 2019
- The opportunities
- Diet trends bode well for non-dairy sales
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- Figure 3: Plant-based diets, February 2019
- Figure 4: Milk purchases – Dairy milk and non-dairy milk, August 2019
- “Other” non-dairy year-over-year sales skyrocketing
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- Figure 5: Total US retail sales of “other” non-dairy milks, at current prices, 2014-2024
- Filling the white space by making milk a purposeful beverage
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- Figure 6: Dairy and non-dairy milk occasions, August 2019
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- Figure 7: Correspondence analysis – Dairy and non-dairy milk occasions, August 2019
- What it means
The Market – What You Need To Know
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- Dairy milk continues to struggle
- Non-dairy alternatives see steady growth
- New household dynamics lead to new milk needs
Market Size and Forecast
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- Dairy milk struggles as prices fall and competition rises
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of dairy milk market, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of dairy milk market, at current prices, 2014-24
- Non-dairy market booms
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- Figure 10: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of non-dairy milk market, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 11: Total US sales and forecast of non-dairy milk market, at current prices, 2014-24
Market Breakdown
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- Non-dairy share is comparatively small, but quickly growing
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- Figure 12: Dairy and non-dairy share of total market sales, 2014-24
- Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
- Dairy dragged down by skim, with hope from whole
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- Figure 14: MULO sales of dairy milk, by segment, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
Market Perspective
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- Plant-based is becoming a priority
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- Figure 15: Plant-based dairy alternatives across food and drink categories
- Coffee drinks, both in-home and away from home, see growth
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- Figure 16: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of coffee market, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 17: Change in incidence of coffee drinks on menus, by segment, Q1 2016-Q1 2019
Market Factors
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- Household composition shifts away from children
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- Figure 18: Percentage of households with children, 2008-18
- Low milk prices strain dairy industry
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- Figure 19: Average price of milk (gallon), January 2009-July 2019
- Climate change leads to shake-ups in milk
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Private label sees mixed results
- Oat and almond drive non-dairy, while soy takes the backseat
- Hybrid milks fit in with popular diet trends
Company and Brand Sales of Dairy and Non-dairy Milk
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- Dean Foods and private label see biggest losses from dairy sales
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- Figure 20: MULO sales of dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Major non-dairy players see mixed results
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- Figure 21: MULO sales of non-dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
What’s Working?
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- Consumers still look for lactose-free milk
- Protein claims boost shelf-stable sales
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- Figure 22: MULO sales of shelf-stable milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Almond is the new go-to alternative, but oat has potential
What’s Struggling?
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- Continued crowding in non-dairy
- Soy lost steam
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- Figure 23: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
- Figure 24: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of soy milk market, at current prices, 2014-24
What’s Next?
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- Hybrid drinks give consumers the best of both worlds
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- Figure 25: Live Real Farm’s Dairy Plus Milk Blends, October 2019
- Repositioning could breathe life into falling dairy sales
- Chocolate milk as a post-workout drink
- Unique flavors as mix-ins
- Sesame sparks interest for dairy and non-dairy drinkers
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- Figure 26: Hope & Sesame Organic Sesame Milk, Chocolate – August 2019
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Dairy milk is still a household staple
- Most consumers are buying the same amount of dairy milk, but lactose is a concern
- Non-dairy’s growing presence is led by almond milk, with no close second
Dairy Milk Purchases
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- 2% and whole milks dominate the dairy market
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- Figure 27: Dairy milk purchases, August 2019
- Most consumers buy only one type of dairy milk
- Methodology
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- Figure 28: Repertoire analysis – Number of dairy milks purchased in the past three months, August 2019
- Dairy milk is popular for families
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- Figure 29: Dairy milk purchases, by parental status, August 2019
- Men buy specialty dairy milk
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- Figure 30: Dairy milk purchases, by gender, August 2019
Dairy Milk Purchasing Shifts
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- Most consumers are buying the same amount of dairy milk
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- Figure 31: Dairy milk purchasing shifts, July 2018 and August 2019
- Millennials are buying more dairy milk
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- Figure 32: Dairy milk purchasing shifts, by generation, August 2019
- Hispanics focus on eating healthy
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- Figure 33: Dairy milk purchasing shifts, by Hispanic origin, August 2019
- Consumers are largely avoiding lactose
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- Figure 34: Reasons for buying less dairy milk, August 2019
Non-dairy Milk Purchases
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- Almond milk dominates small but mighty non-dairy market
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- Figure 35: Non-dairy milk purchases, August 2019
- Hispanics like non-dairy milks; Black consumers provide opportunity in the market
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- Figure 36: Non-dairy milk purchases, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2019
- Non-dairy purchases are a personal choice
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- Figure 37: Household consumption of non-dairy milk, August 2019
Non-dairy Milk Purchasing Shifts
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- Non-dairy purchases continue to grow
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- Figure 38: Non-dairy milk purchasing shifts, September 2018 and August 2019
- Health is a universal contributor to non-dairy increases
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- Figure 39: Reasons for buying more non-dairy milk, August 2019
- Household income impacts outlook and priorities
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- Figure 40: Non-dairy milk purchasing shifts, by household income, August 2019
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- Figure 41: Reasons for buying more non-dairy milk, by household income, August 2019
- Hispanics are prime non-dairy consumers
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- Figure 42: Reasons for buying more non-dairy milk, by Hispanic origin, August 2019
Dairy and Non-dairy Milk Occasions
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- Milk is largely an additive
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- Figure 43: Dairy and non-dairy milk occasions, August 2019
- People cook with whole milk, but drink flavored options
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- Figure 44: Dairy milk occasions, by milk type, August 2019
- Coconut milk has diverse uses
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- Figure 45: Non-dairy milk usage occasions, by milk type, August 2019
- Opportunities lie in promoting milks as a standalone drink
- Methodology – Correspondence Analysis
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- Figure 46: Correspondence Analysis – Dairy and non-dairy milk occasions, August 2019
Dairy and Non-dairy Purchase Factors
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- Dairy milk consumers focus on container size
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- Figure 47: Dairy and non-dairy purchase considerations, August 2019
- TURF Analyses – Dairy and non-dairy milk
- Methodology
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- Figure 48: Turf analysis – Purchase factors, dairy milk, August 2019
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- Figure 49: TURF Analysis – Purchase factors, non-dairy milk
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 50: Total US retail sales and forecast of milk, by segment, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 51: Total US retail sales of milk, by segment, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
- Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated milk, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf-stable dairy, at current prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 54: Total US retail sales of milk, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 55: Total US retail sales of milk, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
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- Figure 56: US supermarket sales of milk at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 57: US drugstore sales of milk, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 58: US sales of milk through other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
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- Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of almond milk, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of coconut milk, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 61: Total US retail sales and forecast of soy milk, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of other non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 63: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 64: Total US retail sales of non-dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2017 and 2019
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- Figure 65: US supermarket sales of non-dairy milk, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 66: US sales of non-dairy milk through other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 67: Multi-outlet sales of refrigerated milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Figure 68: Multi-outlet sales of shelf-stable milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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- Figure 69: Multi-outlet sales of almond milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Figure 70: Multi-outlet sales of coconut milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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- Figure 71: Multi-outlet sales of soy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Figure 72: Multi-outlet sales of other non-dairy milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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