Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Inflation drives category growth over 2014-19
- Further inflation expected for 2019-24
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- Figure 1: Total value sales of dark spirits and liqueurs, 2014-24
- Continued decline in whisky brings down overall off-trade sales in 2019
- On-trade sales performances generally mirror those in off-trade in 2019
- Multiple factors drive price rises in 2019
- Companies and brands
- The Famous Grouse loses out to the decline in blended whisky
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- Figure 2: Leading brands’ sales in the UK retail whisky market, by value, 2018/19*
- Limited-edition and premium launches continue
- Brands explore lower- and non-alcoholic spirits variants
- Advertising spend rises in 2018
- Johnnie Walker and Haig Club are the chief recipients of Diageo’s 2018 adspend
- Baileys and Jack Daniel’s come top for quality perceptions
- The consumer
- Half of adults drink dark spirits; four in ten drink liqueurs
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- Figure 3: Usage of dark spirits, by type, June 2019
- Brand loyalty is strongest when people are buying for themselves
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- Figure 4: Dark spirits buying factors by occasion, June 2019
- Liqueurs with dessert-inspired and seasonal flavours spark interest
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- Figure 5: Interest in innovation in dark spirits and liqueurs, June 2019
- Premium variants from established brands have the advantage over newcomer brands
- Trial in the on-trade is a major driver of retail purchase
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- Figure 6: Behaviours relating to dark spirits and liqueurs, June 2019
- Onus on spirits brands to prove their quality credentials
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Historical recipes can help to engage both older and younger consumers
- The facts
- The implications
- Need to make dark spirits’ quality credentials more tangible
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Inflation drives category growth over 2014-19
- Further inflation expected for 2019-24
- Continued decline in whisky brings down overall off-trade sales in 2019
- On-trade sales performances generally mirror those in off-trade in 2019
- Multiple factors drive price rises in 2019
Market Size and Forecast
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- Inflation drives category growth over 2014-19
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- Figure 7: Total value and volume sales of dark spirits and liqueurs, 2014-24
- Further inflation expected for 2019-24
- Discretionary nature puts dark spirits in the danger zone if confidence waivers
- Ageing UK population to hinder volume sales growth
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- Figure 8: Total value sales of dark spirits and liqueurs, 2014-24
- Figure 9: Total volume sales of dark spirits and liqueurs, 2014-24
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation and Channels to Market
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- On-trade leads on values but not volumes
- Inflation rises faster in the on- than off-trade in 2019
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- Figure 10: Value and volume sales of dark spirits and liqueurs, by channel, 2017-19
- Off-trade volume sales fall in 2019
- Weakness of blended whisky brings down the overall segment
- Hot summer of 2018 boosts liqueurs…
- …but they fail to maintain momentum in 2019
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- Figure 11: Value and volume sales of dark spirits and liqueurs in the off-trade, by segment, 2017-19
- On-trade sales performances generally mirror that of off-trade in 2019
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- Figure 12: Value and volume sales of dark spirits and liqueurs in the on-trade, by segment, 2017-19
Market Drivers
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- A third of adults have reduced their alcohol intake
- Multiple factors affect prices of dark spirits and liqueurs
- Pound’s weakness drives inflation in all segments
- EU is the key market for Scotch whisky exports
- Government plans to increase spirits duties
- Weather fluctuations over 2018/19 affect multiple segments
- Consumers’ financial health is crucial for spirits sales
- Ageing UK population to hinder category sales growth
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- The Famous Grouse loses out to the decline in blended whisky
- Limited-edition and premium launches continue
- Brands explore lower- and non-alcoholic spirits variants
- Advertising spend rises in 2018
- Johnnie Walker and Haig Club are the chief recipients of Diageo’s 2018 adspend
- Baileys and Jack Daniel’s come top for quality perceptions
Market Share
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- The Famous Grouse loses out to the decline in blended whisky
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- Figure 13: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail whisky market, by value and volume, 2016/17-2018/19
- Jack Daniel’s takes sales from Jim Beam as American whisky’s popularity continues
- Increased advertising boosts Jameson
- Captain Morgan’s sales plateau as competition heats up in dark/golden/spiced rum
- The Kraken raises its profile
- NPD helps own-label to grow
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- Figure 14: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail dark/golden/spiced rum market, by value and volume, 2016/17-2018/19
- Own-label loses sales as brandy/Cognac/Armagnac segment declines
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- Figure 15: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail brandy/Cognac/Armagnac market, by value and volume, 2016/17-2018/19
- Baileys bucks the negative trend in liqueurs
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- Figure 16: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail liqueurs market, by value and volume, 2016/17-2018/19
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Further activity in limited edition spirits
- Bushmills Distillery continues the trend in highlighting barrel types
- Arran Distillery releases 21 year-old malt
- Smaller brands launch dark spirits sourced from closed distilleries
- Highland Park unveils the latest in its Viking series
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- Figure 17: Highland Park unveils the latest in its Viking series, 2019
- Premium launches continue
- Panamanian rum emphasizes its natural credentials
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- Figure 18: Panamanian rum brand Grander arrives in the UK
- Aldi’s new rum brand heats up the competition within the category
- More brands launch entry level products
- Aerstone aims to ‘decode’ the whisky category
- Lamb’s rum redesigns its packaging to appeal to a younger audience
- Brands explore lower alcohol products…
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- Figure 19: Bacardi launches lower-alcohol product, 2019
- …including non-alcoholic spirits alternatives
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- Figure 20: Examples of non-alcoholic dark spirits alternatives, 2019
- Brands and retailers innovate with liqueur flavours
- Smaller brands draw inspiration from cakes and desserts
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- Figure 21: Examples of liqueurs with cake/dessert-inspired flavours, 2019
- New coffee liqueurs up the competition for Kahlúa
- Kahlúa’s new flavour variant promises a ‘hot chilli bite’
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- Figure 22: Examples of coffee liqueur launches, 2019
- Brands continue to explore on-trend flavours
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- Figure 23: Example of a liqueur launch with on-trend flavours/ingredients, 2019
- Zymorgium and Aldi tap into the pink gin and unicorn trends
- Crossover brands enter the dark spirits category
- BrewDog links with craft distilleries on whiskies
- Sexy Fish restaurant launches Japanese single malt
- Johnnie Walker launches Game of Thrones-themed whiskies
- …including product designed to be served chilled
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- Figure 24: Johnnie Walker launches whisky designed to be served chilled, 2018
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Advertising spend rises in 2018
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- Figure 25: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on dark spirits^ and liqueurs, by top ten advertisers, 2015-19 (ordered by 2018)
- Johnnie Walker and Haig Club benefit most from Diageo’s 2018 advertising spend
- Johnnie Walker emphasises care taken in production in new TV advert
- Haig Club continues to focus on rule-breaking…
- …but also on responsible drinking
- Baileys adverts continue to focus on versatility
- Whisky masterclasses attempt to demystify the category
- Talisker Tasting Experience harnesses voice technology
- Bacardi continues its focus on living life to the full
- Jameson takes the lion’s share of Pernod Ricard’s 2018 advertising
- TV advert portrays the product as prompting burglary
- Social media adverts aim for lifestyle positioning
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 26: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, July 2019
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 27: Key metrics for selected brands, July 2019
- Brand attitudes: Baileys and Jack Daniel’s are the most widely seen as consistently high quality
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- Figure 28: Attitudes, by brand, July 2019
- Brand personality: Baileys, Jack Daniel’s and Captain Morgan score well on accessibility
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- Figure 29: Brand personality – Macro image, July 2019
- Baileys is the most widely seen as delicious
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- Figure 30: Brand personality – Micro image, July 2019
- Brand analysis
- Baileys is the most widely seen as good value and accessible
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- Figure 31: User profile of Baileys, July 2019
- Jack Daniel’s is seen as fun and (somewhat) cool by under-35s
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- Figure 32: User profile of Jack Daniel’s, July 2019
- The Famous Grouse has a traditional image
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- Figure 33: User profile of The Famous Grouse, July 2019
- Disaronno has something of a sophisticated and stylish image
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- Figure 34: User profile of Disaronno, July 2019
- Captain Morgan scores well on fun and accessibility
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- Figure 35: User profile of Captain Morgan, July 2019
- The Kraken is seen as fun and (somewhat) stylish
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- Figure 36: User profile of The Kraken, July 2019
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Half of adults drink dark spirits, four in ten drink liqueurs
- Brand loyalty is strongest when people are buying for themselves
- Liqueurs with dessert-inspired and seasonal flavours spark interest
- Premium variants from established brands have the advantage over newcomer brands
- Trial in the on-trade is a major driver of retail purchase
- Onus on spirits brands to prove their quality credentials
Usage of Dark Spirits and Liqueurs
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- Half of adults drink dark spirits
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- Figure 37: Usage of dark spirits, by type, June 2019
- More men than women drink dark spirits
- Single malt whisky is the most widely drunk dark spirit type
- Under-35s are key users of all whisky types
- Four in ten adults drink liqueurs
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- Figure 38: Usage of liqueurs and flavoured dark spirits, by type, June 2019
- Over a quarter of adults drink flavoured dark spirits
Usage Frequency for Dark Spirits and Liqueurs
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- 40% of users drink dark spirits at least weekly
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- Figure 39: Usage frequency for dark spirits and liqueurs, June 2019
- Under-35s are the most frequent dark spirits drinkers
- Men are more frequent drinkers than women
Dark Spirits Buying Factors by Occasion
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- Brand loyalty is strongest when people are buying for themselves
- Six in ten users like to have a selection of dark spirits at home
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- Figure 40: Dark spirits buying factors by occasion, June 2019
- Promotions are a stronger draw when people are buying for themselves
- Introductory offers and flavour/serving innovation can help to tempt price-conscious shoppers
- Age and flavour note references are more important for frequent drinkers
- Reviews/ratings are more of an influence for gifting occasions
- Encourage users to review products and share these with friends and family
Interest in Innovation in Dark Spirits and Liqueurs
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- Various opportunities for flavour innovation in liqueurs
- Dessert-inspired flavours appeal especially to under-25s…
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- Figure 41: Interest in innovation in dark spirits and liqueurs, June 2019
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- Figure 42: International examples of liqueurs drawing inspiration from sweet treats, 2018
- …as do seasonal flavours
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- Figure 43: International examples of liqueurs with seasonal flavours, 2018/19
- Dark spirits/liqueurs with historical recipes appeal to one in four users
- Lower/non-alcoholic versions of dark spirits appeal to 18% of 18-24s
Behaviours Relating to Dark Spirits and Liqueurs
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- Premium variants from established brands have the advantage over newcomer brands
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- Figure 44: Behaviours relating to dark spirits and liqueurs, June 2019
- Introductory offers should help premium new entrants to appeal to shoppers
- Tasting sessions are a viable means to drive trial
- Target gifting occasions
- Historical cocktail recipes made with dark spirits appeal to 68% of users
- Need to build quality associations around mixed serves
- Trial in the on-trade is a major driver of retail purchase
Perceptions of Dark Spirits
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- Onus on spirits brands to prove their quality credentials
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- Figure 45: Perceptions of dark spirits, by type, June 2019
- Promoting a varied range of serves can help to build versatility associations
- Dark spirits struggle with flavour perceptions
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecast methodology
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- Figure 46: Forecast of UK sales of dark spirits and liqueurs, by value, best- and worst-case, 2019-24
- Figure 47: Forecast of UK sales of dark spirits and liqueurs, by volume, best- and worst-case, 2019-24
Appendix – Market Segmentation and Channels to Market
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- Figure 48: Total value and volume sales of whisky, 2014-19
- Figure 49: Total value and volume sales of dark/golden/spiced rum, 2014-19
- Figure 50: Total value and volume sales of brandy/Cognac/Armagnac, 2014-19
- Figure 51: Total value and volume sales of liqueurs, 2014-19
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Appendix – Market Share
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- Figure 52: Leading distributors’ sales and shares in the UK retail whisky market, by value and volume, 2016/17-2018/19
- Figure 53: Leading distributors’ sales and shares in the UK retail dark/golden/spiced rum market, by value and volume, 2016/17-2018/19
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- Figure 54: Leading distributors’ sales and shares in the UK retail brandy/Cognac/Armagnac market, by value and volume, 2016/17-2018/19
- Figure 55: Leading distributors’ sales and shares in the UK retail liqueurs market, by value and volume, 2016/17-2018/19
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Appendix – Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Figure 56: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on dark spirits^ and liqueurs, by top three advertisers, by brand, 2017-19 (ordered by 2018)
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Appendix – Usage of Dark Spirits and Liqueurs
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- Figure 57: Ways of drinking dark spirits, by type, June 2019
- Figure 58: Ways of drinking liqueurs and flavoured dark spirits, by type, June 2019
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Appendix – Behaviours Relating to Dark Spirits and Liqueurs
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- Figure 59: Non-users’ behaviours relating to dark spirits and liqueurs, June 2019
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