Table of Contents
Executive Summary
-
- The market
- Values and volumes are down in 2019
-
- Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail value sales of bread, 2014-24
- Pre-packed bread holds the lead despite sales drop
-
- Figure 2: UK retail value sales of bread, by segment, 2017-19
- Companies and brands
- Warburtons retains lead but sees sales fall in pre-packed bread; own-label grows
-
- Figure 3: Leading brands’ shares in the UK pre-packed bread retail market, by value, 2018/19*
- Warburtons manages to grow sales in speciality bread and rolls
-
- Figure 4: Leading brands’ shares in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2018/19*
- Brands fight back against own-labels with NPD
- Bread makers cut back on advertising spend
- Warburtons is the most trusted brand; Hovis the most traditional
- The consumer
- Bread buying is almost universal, at 96%
-
- Figure 5: Types of bread and bread products bought in the past month, June 2019
- British flour appeals to 34%
-
- Figure 6: Interest in innovation in bread, June 2019
- Opportunities for branded ISB bread and subscription services
-
- Figure 7: Behaviours related to bread, June 2019
- Fibre content and gut health offer strong selling points for bread
-
- Figure 8: Attitudes towards bread, June 2019
- What we think
Issues and Insights
-
- Fibre content and gut health offer strong selling points for bread
- The facts
- The implications
- Greater potential for leftover ingredients
- The facts
- The implications
- Opportunities for branded ISB bread
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
-
- Values and volumes are down in 2019
- Values expected to rise but volumes to decline by 2024
- White dominates pre-packed bread but bread with bits sees fastest volume rise
- Bagels are the standout performer in rolls and speciality bread
- Out-of-home lunch market remains a threat
Market Size and Forecast
-
- Values and volumes are down in 2019
-
- Figure 9: UK retail value and volume sales of the bread market, 2014-24
- Values expected to rise but volumes to decline by 2024
-
- Figure 10: Forecast of UK retail value sales of bread, 2014-24
-
- Figure 11: Forecast of UK retail volume sales of bread, 2014-24
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
-
- Pre-packed bread holds the lead despite sales drop
-
- Figure 12: UK retail value sales of bread, by segment, 2017-19
- White dominates pre-packed bread but bread with bits sees fastest volumes rise
-
- Figure 13: UK retail value and volume sales of pre-packed bread, by type, 2017-19
- Bagels are the standout performer in rolls and speciality bread
- Rolls suffer ongoing decline
-
- Figure 14: UK retail value sales of rolls and speciality bread, by types, 2017-19
Market Drivers
-
- Health remains a concern for consumers
- Out-of-home lunch market remains a threat
-
- Figure 15: Out of home meals, by occasion, April 2018 and April 2019
- Improved household incomes create opportunities for premium products
-
- Figure 16: CPI vs average weekly earnings, 2013-19
- Uncertainties surround consumer finances post-Brexit
- Pressure grows on the food industry to reduce packaging waste
- Rise in children should support sales, though slowing from previous trend
-
- Figure 17: Change in age structure of the UK population, 2014-19 and 2019-24
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
-
- Warburtons retains lead but sees sales fall in pre-packed bread; own-label grows
- Warburtons manages to grow sales in speciality bread and rolls
- Brands fight back against own-labels
- Warburtons continues to step up NPD
- Bread makers cut back on advertising spend
- Warburtons is the most trusted brand; Hovis the most traditional
Market Share
-
- Warburtons leads in pre-packed bread, despite a fall in sales
- Hovis sees values rise on the back of falling volumes
- Kingsmill continues to struggle
-
- Figure 18: Leading brands in the UK pre-packed bread retail market, by value and volume, 2016/17-2018/19
- Warburtons manages to grow sales in speciality bread and rolls
- New York Bakery Co sees sales bounce back
-
- Figure 19: Leading brands in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2016/17-2018/19
Launch Activity and Innovation
-
- Brands fight back against own-labels
-
- Figure 20: Share of new product launches in the UK bread market, by brand and own-label, 2015-19
- Tesco took the lead by NPD in 2018
-
- Figure 21: Share of new product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by top companies (sorted by 2018), 2015-19
- Figure 22: Tesco looks to flavour in flatbreads, 2019
- Tesco expands its exclusive offering
-
- Figure 23: Tesco launches Polski exclusive line, 2018
- Asda and New York Bakery look to new flavours
- Warburtons continues to step up NPD
- Warburtons enters full-sized bagels market
-
- Figure 24: Warburtons diversifies portfolio, 2019
- Premium trend continues
-
- Figure 25: Share of premium products in the UK bread market, 2015-19
- Sourdough trend continues
-
- Figure 26: Hovis and Modern Baker launch sourdough breads, 2018 and 2019
- Healthy eating trends influence NPD
- Seeded variants look to textural cues to create standout
-
- Figure 27: Manufacturers look to texture to create standout, 2018 and 2019
-
- Figure 28: Sainsbury’s launches bread with 18% seeds, 2019
- Figure 29: Rise Organic Bakery lists 21 seeds, US, 2017
- Kingsmill launches vitamin-fortified bread
-
- Figure 30: Kingsmill launches Vitamin Boost bread, 2018
- Brands leverage gut health
-
- Figure 31: Share of product launches in the UK bread market, by the high/added fibre claim, 2015-19
-
- Figure 32: Manufacturers emphasise gut health, 2017 and 2018
- Vegan claims rise
-
- Figure 33: Share of product launches in the UK bread market, by the vegan/no animal ingredients claim, 2015-19
- Figure 34: Products with a vegan claim, 2019
- Manufacturers look to ethical/environmental measures
- Tesco to use unsold loaves in new products
- Baker Street emphasises fresher for longer claim
-
- Figure 35: Baker Street emphasises freshness on-pack, 2018
- Figure 36: Baker Street emphasises freshness at trade show, 2019
- Jackson’s removes palm oil from Champion bread
Advertising and Marketing Activity
-
- Bread advertisers cut back
-
- Figure 37: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread, 2015-19
- Warburtons leads on spend and hires De Niro for bagel campaign
-
- Figure 38: Warburtons’ POS display, 2019
- Figure 39: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread, by leading advertisers, (sorted by 2018), 2015-19
- Figure 40: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread, by leading brands, 2019*
- Hovis brings back bike ad
- Deli Kitchen continues partnership with Tom Daley
- M&S supports sourdough bread in 2019
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
-
- Brand map
-
- Figure 41: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, July 2019
- Key brand metrics
-
- Figure 42: Key metrics for selected brands, July 2019
- Brand attitudes: Warburtons leads on trust
-
- Figure 43: Attitudes, by brand, July 2019
- Brand personality: New York Bakery Co. seen to be the most fun
-
- Figure 44: Brand personality – Macro image, July 2019
- Hovis seen to be traditional
-
- Figure 45: Brand personality – Micro image, July 2019
- Brand analysis
- Warburtons is seen to offer trust and consistent high quality
-
- Figure 46: User profile of Warburtons, July 2019
- Hovis leads on perceptions of tradition and health
-
- Figure 47: User profile of Hovis, July 2019
- New York Bakery Co. seen to be the most indulgent, special and fun
-
- Figure 48: User profile of New York Bakery Co., July 2019
- Brace’s struggles to compete with the larger brands
-
- Figure 49: User profile of Brace’s, July 2019
- Kingsmill trails the leaders but is seen to be a family brand by 40%
-
- Figure 50: User profile of Kingsmill, July 2019
- Roberts is seen to offer an excellent experience among three in ten users
-
- Figure 51: User profile of Roberts, July 2019
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
-
- Bread buying is almost universal, at 96%
- White bread still the most popular
- 42% eat packaged sliced bread and 18% other types of bread daily
- British flour appeals to 34%
- Opportunities for branded ISB bread and subscription services
- Fibre content and gut health offer strong selling points for bread
Purchase and Usage of Bread
-
- Bread buying is almost universal, at 96%
- Packaged sliced loaves lead
- Bagels see buying rise
-
- Figure 52: Types of bread and bread products bought in the past month, June 2019
- White bread still the most popular
-
- Figure 53: Types of packaged sliced loaves bought in the past month, June 2019
- Limited crossover between white, wholemeal and bread with bits
-
- Figure 54: Crossover in purchasing of packaged sliced loaves in the past month, June 2019
- Consumers have a large repertoire
-
- Figure 55: Repertoire of types of bread bought in the past month, June 2019
- 42% eat packaged sliced bread and 18% other types of bread daily
-
- Figure 56: Frequency of eating bread in the past month, June 2019
Interest in Innovation
-
- British flour appeals to 34%
-
- Figure 57: Interest in innovation in bread, June 2019
-
- Figure 58: Sainsbury’s references use of British flour, 2019
- 24% are interested in lower carb bread
Bread Behaviours
-
- Opportunities for branded ISB bread
-
- Figure 59: Behaviours related to bread, June 2019
- Unusual ingredients spark widespread interest - freshly baked offers a strong platform
- Appealing to time-poor shoppers could help to drive packed lunches
- Greater potential for leftover ingredients
-
- Figure 60: Swedish and French bread brands look to beer as an ingredient, 2019
- Minority interest in subscription services
Attitudes towards Bread
-
- Fibre content and gut health offer strong selling points for bread
- Fibre and gut health spark coverage and interest
- Bread’s strong image as a source of fibre offers currency for brands
-
- Figure 61: Attitudes towards bread, June 2019
- Sustainability can win over shoppers
- Consumers question packaging
- Opportunities for premiumisation
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
-
- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
-
- Forecast methodology
-
- Figure 62: UK value sales of bread, best- and worst-case forecast, 2019-24
- Figure 63: UK volume sales of bread, best- and worst-case forecast, 2019-24
Appendix – Market Share
-
-
- Figure 64: Leading manufacturers in the UK pre-packed bread retail market, by value and volume, 2016/17-2018/19
- Figure 65: Leading manufacturers in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2016/17-2018/19
-
Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
-
- Definition
-
- Figure 66: Share of sourdough products of all new launches in the UK bread market, 2015-19
- Figure 67: Share of new product launches in the UK bread market, by top 10 claims (sorted by 2018), 2015-19
-
- Figure 68: Share of new product launches in the UK bread market, by claim category, 2015-19
- Figure 69: Share of new product launches in the UK bread market, by package type, 2015-19
Appendix – Advertising and Marketing Activity
-
-
- Figure 70: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread, by category, (sorted by 2018), 2015-19
- Figure 71: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread, by media type, 2015-19
-
Back to top