Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- What you need to know
- The issues
- Cookie sales growth is slow
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, at current prices, 2014-24
- Snacking is popular, but snack categories need to be on guard
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- Figure 2: Percentage growth in select snack categories, 2013-18
- Future growth will require expanding occasions
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- Figure 3: Cookie consumption, April 2019
- The opportunities
- Cookies are treats: the good and the bad of it
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- Figure 4: Reasons for cookie consumption, April 2019
- A third of cookie eaters are interested in low-sugar options
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- Figure 5: Cookie innovation of interest, April 2019
- Cookie dough has growth potential
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- Figure 6: Total US sales of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, 2014-24 (fore)
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Omnipresence of snacking should help all snack categories grow
- Sugar fears challenge sweet categories
- Cookie sales grow 14% from 2014-19
- Cookie growth trails behind other snack categories
- Prepared cookies dominate cookie category; dough has growth potential
Market Size and Forecast
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- Category sales grow 14% over the past five years
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 9: Total US retail sales of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
Market Breakdown
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- Prepared cookies comprise the lion’s share of sales
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- Figure 10: Segment share of total US sales of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, 2014 and 2019 (est)
- Prepared cookie launches outpace other segments
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- Figure 11: Product launches, by segment, 2015-19*
- Figure 12: Total US sales of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, 2014-24 (fore)
- “Other” channels outsell supermarkets; cookies have strong online sales potential
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales of cookies and cookie mixes and dough, by channel, at current prices, 2014-19
Market Perspective
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- Snacking is popular, but snack categories need to be on guard
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- Figure 14: Percentage growth in select snack categories, 2013-18
- Figure 15: Snack purchase drivers, November 2018
- Salty snack categories have a small advantage
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- Figure 16: Salty snack statements – Any agree: preference, January 2019
- Sugar: the cookie monster
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- Figure 17: Sweetener usage trend, September 2018
- Portability and portionability could help cookies grow appeal
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- Figure 18: Correspondence analysis – Symmetrical map – Perception of snacks, December 2018
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- Figure 19: Perception of snacks, December 2018
- Packaged cookies can fend off bakeries through access and innovation
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- Figure 20: Attitudes toward in-store bakeries, November 2018
Market Factors
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- Snack time all the time
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- Figure 21: Snacking frequency, January 2015 and November 2018
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Mondelēz brands control more than a third of MULO sales of cookies
- Nostalgia helps some packaged cookie brands make gains
- Clean label claims are on the rise
- There’s room for flavor innovation in the category
Companies and Brand Sales of Cookies
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- Mondelēz controls more than a third of MULO sales of cookies
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- Figure 22: Share of multi-outlet sales of cookies and cookie dough/mixes, by leading companies, 52 weeks ending March 24, 2019
- Figure 23: Multi-outlet sales of cookies and cookie dough/mixes, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
What’s Working?
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- Nostalgia helps some packaged cookie brands make gains
- Oreo exemplifies how diversification can drive consumption
- Health-focused brands see sales growth
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- Figure 24: Multi-outlet sales of cookies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Growth of clean label suggest a move toward health positioning
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- Figure 25: Product launches, by claims, 2015-19*
- Chocolate leads across all segments
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- Figure 26: Product launches, by flavor, 2015-19*
What’s Struggling?
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- Nestlé loses share to smaller brands
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- Figure 27: Multi-outlet sales of cookie dough, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
- Cookie mix leaders see sales decline
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- Figure 28: Multi-outlet sales of cookie mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
What’s Next?
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- Rise of the cookie dough
- Improving cookie nutrition to increase permissibility, consumption frequency
- Flavor frenzy
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- 94% of US households eat cookies
- Diversifying cookie types may increase cookie occasions
- Cookies are seen as treats
- A third of cookie eaters are interested in low-sugar options
- Cookie mixes are seen as fresher than packaged cookies
Cookie Consumption
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- 94% of US households eat cookies
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- Figure 29: Cookie consumption, April 2019
- Cookie cravings don’t fade with age
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- Figure 30: Cookie consumption – Purchase for myself, by age, April 2019
Cookie Types Consumed
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- Cookies with chips and sandwich cookies lead
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- Figure 31: Cookie types consumed, April 2019
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- Figure 32: Repertoire of cookie types consumed, April 2019
- Parents eat their kids’ cookies
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- Figure 33: Cookie types consumed, by parental status, April 2019
Cookie Source
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- Packaged cookies lead
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- Figure 34: Cookie source, April 2019
- Women are more likely to make cookies at home
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- Figure 35: Cookie source, by gender, April 2019
- Younger cookie eaters can be engaged in many ways
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- Figure 36: Cookie source, by age, April 2019
- More than half of parents buy cookies from in-store bakeries
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- Figure 37: Cookie source, by parental status, April 2019
Reasons for Cookie Consumption
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- Cookies are treats: the good and the bad of it
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- Figure 38: Reasons for cookie consumption, April 2019
- Treat positioning key in outreach to women
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- Figure 39: Reasons for cookie consumption, by gender, April 2019
- Functionality resonates with younger eaters
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- Figure 40: Reasons for cookie consumption, by age, April 2019
Important Cookie Attributes
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- Flavor leads cookie choice
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- Figure 41: Important cookie attributes, April 2019
- Women seek treat positioning in attributes
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- Figure 42: Important cookie attributes, by gender, April 2019
- Price is especially important to young cookie eaters
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- Figure 43: Important cookie attributes, by age, April 2019
Ideal Cookie
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- Size
- A quarter of cookie eaters want bite-sized options
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- Figure 44: Ideal cookie size, April 2019
- A quarter of men want large cookie options
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- Figure 45: Ideal cookie size, by gender, April 2019
- Younger shoppers are most interested in size variety
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- Figure 46: Ideal cookie size, by age, April 2019
- Texture
- Vast majority of cookie eaters want chewy options
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- Figure 47: Ideal cookie texture, April 2019
- Cakey cookies appeal to younger consumers
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- Figure 48: Ideal cookie texture, by age, April 2019
Cookie Innovation of Interest
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- A third of cookie eaters are interested in low-sugar options
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- Figure 49: Cookie innovation of interest, April 2019
- Men are interested in protein, women interested in clean label
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- Figure 50: Cookie innovation of interest, by gender, April 2019
- Older consumers less interested in bells and whistles
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- Figure 51: Cookie innovation of interest, by age, April 2019
- Low sugar cookies with simple ingredients appeal to half of cookie eaters
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- Figure 52: TURF Analysis – Interest in innovation, April 2019
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- Figure 53: Table - TURF Analysis – Interest in innovation, April 2019
Perception of Cookie Types
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- Packaged cookies struggle with health
- Bakery section cookies perform well for taste, but could expand appeal
- Cookies baked from scratch at home lead for comfort
- Cookie mixes are seen as fresher than packaged cookies
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- Figure 54: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Perceptions of cookie types, April 2019
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- Figure 55: Perceptions of cookie types, April 2019
Healthy Cookies
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- Sugar reduction is the clearest means of improving health perception…
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- Figure 56: Healthy cookies, April 2019
- …but there are many options for health positioning
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- Figure 57: Healthy cookies, by age, April 2019
Food and Drink Shopper Segmentation
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- Figure 58: Food/drink shopper segmentation, February 2019
- Quality Seekers (34%)
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- Figure 59: Profile of Quality Seekers, February 2019
- Adventure Eaters (34%)
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- Figure 60: Profile of Adventure Eaters, February 2019
- Time Savers (17%)
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- Figure 61: Profile of Time Savers, February 2019
- Value Chasers (15%)
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- Figure 62: Profile of Value Chasers, February 2019
- Implications of food/drink consumer segments on cookies
- Time Savers don’t rule out baking from a refrigerated/frozen mix
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- Figure 63: Cookie source, by food and drink shopper segmentation, April 2019
- Value Chasers will invest for indulgence
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- Figure 64: Reasons for cookie consumption, by food and drink shopper segmentation, April 2019
- Quality Seekers are willing to splurge
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- Figure 65: Important cookie attributes, by food and drink shopper segmentation, April 2019
- Lots of routes to appeal to Adventure Eaters
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- Figure 66: Cookie innovation of interest, by food and drink shopper segmentation, April 2019
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Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- TURF methodology
- Correspondence analysis methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 68: US retail sales and forecast of cookies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 69: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookie dough, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 70: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookie dough, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
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- Figure 71: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookie mixes, at current prices, 2014-24
- Figure 72: Total US retail sales and forecast of cookie mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2014-24
- Figure 73: US supermarket sales of cookies and cookie mixes, at current prices, 2014-19
- Figure 74: US drugstore sales of cookies and cookie mixes, at current prices, 2014-19
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- Figure 75: Sales of cookies and cookie mixes at other retail channels, at current prices, 2014-19
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 76: Multi-outlet sales of cookies and cookie dough/mixes, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2018 and 2019
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