Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Market declines by 4.3% in 2018
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- Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK value sales of toys and games, 2013-23
- Collapse of Toys R Us puts a dent in specialists’ market share
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- Figure 2: Estimated distribution of spending on toys, percentage, by type of retailer, 2014-18
- The number of young children is decreasing, which will have a knock-on effect on toys
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- Figure 3: Projected year-on-year percentage population change, based on 2016 projections, by age at last birthday, 2013-22
- Companies and brands
- Smyths overtakes Argos as top toy retailer in the UK
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- Figure 4: Retailer market share estimates for toys in the UK, by value, 2016-18
- The Entertainer opens concessions in Matalan
- FAO Schwarz to open store in Selfridges London
- The consumer
- Toy buyers just as likely to purchase online as in-store
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- Figure 5: Channel used for toy buying, December 2018
- Amazon is the most popular retailer for toy shopping
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- Figure 6: Where people buy toys, December 2018
- Price tops the list of reasons to buy toys at a chosen retailer
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- Figure 7: Reasons given for shopping at retailer where most toys were bought, December 2018
- Most prefer to buy toys that have been requested
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- Figure 8: Behavioural preferences when looking to buy toys, December 2018
- Educational options prove popular
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- Figure 9: Behaviour of toy shoppers, December 2018
- Video gaming and toys need more integration
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- Figure 10: Attitudes towards computer games, December 2018
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Who has benefited from the demise of Toys R Us?
- The facts
- The implications
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- Figure 11: Amazon’s Christmas toy catalogue, 2018
- Ways to win in the toy market
- The facts
- The implications
- The gender problem that prevails in the toy industry
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Market declines by 4.3% in 2018
- Collapse of Toys R Us puts a dent in specialists’ market share
- The number of young children is decreasing
- Cost of living post-Brexit is a big concern
- Children are more likely to buy video games than toys online
Market Size and Forecast
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- Market declines to £3.3 billion in 2018
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- Figure 12: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK value sales of toys and games, 2013-23
- The future
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- Figure 13: UK value sales of toys and games, 2013-23
- Forecast methodology
Channels to Market
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- Collapse of Toys R Us puts a dent in specialists’ market share
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- Figure 14: Estimated distribution of spending on toys, percentage, by type of retailer, 2014-18
- Pureplay retailers and discounters show strong growth
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- Figure 15: Percentage point difference in market share of channels to market for toy retailing, 2017-18
- Figure 16: Estimated distribution of spending on toys, percentage and value, by type of retailer, 2014-18
Market Drivers
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- The number of young children is decreasing
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- Figure 17: Projected (2017-based projections) UK population at mid-years, by age at last birthday, 2013-22
- Figure 18: Projected year-on-year percentage population change, based on 2016 projections, by age at last birthday, 2013-22
- People are having fewer children…
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- Figure 19: Total fertility rate (number of children per woman) across England and Wales, 2007-17
- …and are waiting to have them at an older age
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- Figure 20: Standardised mean age of first-time mothers in England and Wales, 1977-2017
- Cost of living post-Brexit is a big concern
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- Figure 21: Economic outlook consumer tracker, January 2019
- One in five children obese by the time they reach year six
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- Figure 22: Prevalence of overweight and obesity in children, by age, 1996/97-2016/17
- Children are more likely to buy video games than toys online…
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- Figure 23: Things children buy for themselves online, by age, September 2017
- …but buy toys on a more regular basis
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- Figure 24: Regularity of things bought by children online, September 2017
- YouTube the most popular social media channel
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- Figure 25: Teens’ and tweens’ social media usage, March 2017
- A good Christmas essential for toy retailers
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- Figure 26: What people bought as Christmas gifts, December 2018
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Smyths overtakes Argos as top toy retailer in the UK
- Shop Direct Group and Amazon make gains from Toys R Us’ demise
- B&M’s share in toys grows
- The Entertainer opens concessions in Matalan
- FAO Schwarz to open store in Selfridges London
- Advertising spend on toys increased 5% in 2018
Market Share
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- Smyths takes top spot, formerly held by Argos
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- Figure 27: Retailer market share estimates for toys in the UK, by value, 2016-18
- Shop Direct Group and Amazon make gains from Toys R Us’ demise
- B&M’s share in toys grows
Competitive Strategies
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- Financial outlook of specialist retailers
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- Figure 28: Key UK financials of specialist retailers in the toy retailing market, 2015-17
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- Figure 29: Outlet numbers of specialist retailers in the toy retailing market, 2015-17
- Christmas trading
- Operational changes
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- Figure 30: Doddle’s partnership with The Entertainer promoted on the Doddle website, 2019
- Acquisitions and closures
- The Entertainer buys Poly
- Hamleys
- Toys R Us
- Concessions
- The Entertainer opens concessions in Matalan
- FAO Schwarz to open store in Selfridges
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Mental health awareness
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- Figure 31: The Entertainer’s Quiet Hour, 2019
- Harry Potter releases
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- Figure 32: Harry Potter at Hamleys, 2018
- Harrods unveils new toy department
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- Figure 33: Room in Harrods new toy department, 2019
- Barbie and National Geographic agree licensing deal
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- Figure 34: Barbie National Geographic Playset, 2019
- In-store events
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- Figure 35: Smyths Snow Ball, 2018
- Helpful toys
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- Figure 36: Money Monsters, 2019
- Fight against plastic
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- Figure 37: Eco-friendly toy, Junk, 2019
- STEM and educational toys
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- Figure 38: BOSEbuild Headphones, 2018
- Figure 39: Tonies audio system, with licensed book characters, 2019
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Adspend on toys increased 5% in 2018
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- Figure 40: Total above-the-line online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on toys, 2014-18
- Shop Direct Group now top spenders
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- Figure 41: Very Christmas campaign, 2018
- Figure 42: Leading UK retail advertisers of toy products: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure, 2014-18
- Closing the ‘Dream Gap’
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- Figure 43: Barbie’s advert for closing the ‘dream gap’, 2018
- Traditional advertising methods prove popular
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- Figure 44: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on toy retailing, by media type, 2018
- Figure 45: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising of toy products, by media type, 2018
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Toy buyers just as likely to purchase online as in-store
- Amazon is by far the most popular retailer for toy shopping
- Price tops the list of reasons to buy toys at a chosen retailer
- Most prefer to buy toys that have been requested
- Educational options prove popular
- Video gaming and toys need more integration
Channels Used for Toy Purchasing
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- Toy buyers just as likely to purchase online as in-store
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- Figure 46: Channels used for toy buying, December 2018
- As expected, toy buying dramatically reduces in those with older children
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- Figure 47: Channels used for toy buying, by age of child in household, December 2018
Retailers Used for Toy Purchasing
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- Amazon is by far the most popular retailer for toy shopping
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- Figure 48: Where people buy toys, December 2018
- Supermarkets and pureplay retailers the most popular store types
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- Figure 49: Types of retailers used for toy purchasing, December 2018
- Specialist retailers appeal to those financially better off
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- Figure 50: Types of retailers used for toy purchasing, by socio-economic status, December 2018
- Women more likely to shop around for toys
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- Figure 51: Repertoire of toy retailers shopped at, by gender, December 2018
Reasons for Buying Toys
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- Price tops the list of reasons to buy toys at a chosen retailer…
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- Figure 52: Reasons given for shopping at retailer where most toys were bought, December 2018
- …which gives pureplay retailers an edge over competitors
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- Figure 53: Reasons for shopping at the retailer where most toys were bought, by retailer type, December 2018
- Christmas is the main reason to buy toys…
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- Figure 54: Occasions for buying toys, December 2018
- …as those with less money forgo buying toys for birthdays
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- Figure 55: Occasions for buying toys, by socio-economic status, December 2018
- Women burdened with buying for Christmas
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- Figure 56: Occasions for buying toys, by gender, December 2018
- Figure 57: What people bought as Christmas gifts, percentage point difference between men and women, December 2018
Preferences When Buying Toys
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- Most buy toys that have been requests
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- Figure 58: Behavioural preferences when looking to buy toys, December 2018
- Donations to charity popular with a quarter of shoppers
- Older buyers more likely to need guidance, but be better prepared
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- Figure 59: Behavioural preferences when looking to buy toys, by age, December 2018
Behaviour of Toy Shoppers
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- Educational options prove popular
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- Figure 60: Behaviour of toy shoppers, December 2018
- Older children are more likely to be influenced by YouTubers
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- Figure 61: Behaviour of toy shopper, by age of child in household, December 2018
- Caution due to Brexit matches voting patterns
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- Figure 62: Shoppers more cautious due to Brexit, by demographics, December 2018
- Argos buyers most likely to want nostalgic toys
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- Figure 63: Toy retailing – CHAID – Tree output, December 2018
- Methodology
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- Figure 64: Toy retailing – CHAID – Table output, December 2018
- Figure 65: Toy retailing – CHAID – Table output, December 2018
Attitudes towards Toy Shopping
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- Video gaming and toys need more integration
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- Figure 66: Attitudes towards computer games, December 2018
- Women particularly sensitive to toys that promote gender roles
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- Figure 67: Attitudes towards gendered toys, by gender, December 2018
- Shopping in-store should be as experiential as possible
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- Figure 68: Attitudes towards the toy shopping experience, December 2018
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecast methodology
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- Figure 69: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK value sales of toys and games, 2018-23
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