Table of Contents
Analyst Comment – Ocado and the implications of the Andover warehouse incident
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- The Achilles heel of a warehouse based online service
- How could it have happened?
- A note on capacity
- The core of the business
- Inherent vulnerability
- Longer term impact
- Where next?
UK Retail Sales
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- Key points
- Retail sales
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- Figure 1: Retail sales trends, 2017/18
- BRC vs ONS
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- Figure 2: UK retail sales y/y growth, BRC vs ONS, July 2016-January 2019
- John Lewis
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- Figure 3: John Lewis Department Stores: year-on-year growth, Aug 2017-Feb 2019
- Inflation
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- Figure 4: Annual percentage change in the consumer price index for selected product groups, 2018-19
- Inflation and wages
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- Figure 5: Real wages growth: wages growth vs inflation, Jan 2016-Jan 2019
- Confidence
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- Figure 6: Mintel Financial confidence tracker, January 2016-January 2019
- Looking forward
Sector Focus – Household Goods
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- The sector – What’s included
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- Figure 7: Estimated consumer spending on household goods, by product type, 2018
- Figure 8: Consumer spending on household goods, 2014-18
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- Figure 9: Consumer spending growth, overall versus household goods, % quarter on quarter, Q2 2015-Q3 2018
- Figure 10: Growth in spending on household goods products, % change quarter on quarter, Q2 2017-Q3 2018
- Prices generally falling to encourage shoppers to spend
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- Figure 11: Price inflation on household goods categories, % change over 12 months, January 2018-January 2019
- Household goods specialists’ sales up 5% year-on-year in 2018
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- Figure 12: Household goods specialists’ retail sales, monthly % change year-on-year, June 2017-January 2019
- Consumer intention to spend on the home tailed off towards end of 2018
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- Figure 13: Spending and intention to spend on the home, December 2015-January 2019
- Residential transactions fall
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- Figure 14: Residential housing transactions over £40,000, monthly year-on-year % change, seasonally adjusted, January 2018-December 2018
- Where next?
Launch Activity and Innovations
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- UK: Sainsbury’s piloting a meat-alternative section in its meat and fish aisle
- UK: Waitrose introduces same day sushi delivery
- UK: Radley partnering with Ascot Racecourse for exclusive collection
- UK: M&S launches AI-powered photo search on mobile site
- UK: IKEA to trial furniture rental scheme
Headlines for the Month
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- Grocers
- Specialist food & drink retailing
- Clothing retailing
- Multi-sector retailing
- Department stores
- Music and video goods retailing
- Furniture retailing
- Book and stationery retailing
- Home shopping
News Analysis – Food & Drink
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- Grocers
- UK: Asda
- …expanding tower lockers for click & collect
- …wins landmark ruling in legal battle over equal pay
- UK: Booths posts 3% increase in Christmas sales
- UK: Lidl Christmas sales increase 8% year-on-year
- UK: Lidl’s new warehouse creates 400 new jobs
- UK: Morrisons and Waitrose launch fresh plastic crackdowns
- UK: Sainsbury’s
- …Asda merger delayed by 2 months
- …extending to trial to help customers with hidden disabilities
- UK: Tesco
- …confirms 9,000 jobs at risk as it axes fresh food counters
- …launches new training programme with Jamie Oliver
- …may cut up to 15,000 jobs
- …reports strong Christmas sales
- Specialist food & drink retailing
- UK: Hotel Chocolat group revenue up by 15%
- UK: Oddbins
- …owner files intention to appoint administrators
- …officially enters administration
News Analysis – Clothing & Footwear
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- UK: Bonmarché Christmas sales in line with previous revised guidance
- UK: Burberry warns of potential cost hits if no-deal Brexit happens
- UK: Cambridge Satchel Company opening flagship store in Seven Dials
- UK: discounting at Matalan helped draw in Christmas shoppers
- UK: FatFace sales improve following tough start to Christmas trading
- UK: H&M rolling out new retail store concepts
- UK: Jack Wills calls in advisers to assess financial position
- UK: Levi’s report 9% increase in net revenue for its fourth quarter
- UK: Monsoon asks landlords for rent reductions
- UK: Moss Bros reports improved sales in fourth quarter
- UK: New Look strikes a deal to cut £1.3 billion debt pile
- UK: Quiz Christmas sales below expectations
- UK: Ralph Lauren opening new store at Liverpool One
- UK: Seasalt enjoys a record breaking Christmas
- UK: Sir Philip Green to conduct a review of Arcadia store estate
- UK: Swarovski opening new Peterborough store
- UK: Whistles ending its menswear range
- UK: Wild & Gorgeous enters administration
- UK: Clarks staff to teach children literacy skills as they fit their shoes
News Analysis – Mixed Goods
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- UK: B&M posts 1.6% fall in like-for-like revenues in its third quarter
- Multi-sector retailing
- UK: M&S
- …launches loose fruit and veg trial
- …poaches new head of food online from Tesco
- …new take-back scheme recycles plastic into playground equipment
- …reportedly in talks with Ocado to launch online grocery service
- …sales down 2.2%
- …to close more stores affecting 1,045 staff
- Department stores
- UK: Debenhams
- …chair Ian Cheshire and chief executive Sergio Bucher voted off the board
- …like-for-like sales tumble 3.4% over Christmas
- UK: Fortnum & Mason posts double-digit growth over Christmas
- UK: House of Fraser Intu stores saved from closure
- UK: John Lewis
- …closing down Knight & Lee store in Southsea
- …Qubist partnership allows for staff to take part in social media marketing
- UK: Morleys posts one of its best-ever Christmas trading periods
- UK: Selfridges to sell bug bars in food hall
News Analysis – Household Goods
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- DIY retailing
- UK: Robert Dyas swings to loss
- Electrical retailing
- UK: Samsung to replace plastic packaging with sustainable alternatives
- UK: Superfi ceases trading
- Music and video goods retailing
- UK: HMV
- …rescued by Sunrise Records
- …flagship Oxford Street store to shut down
- …Mike Ashley in rescue bid for HMV
- …potential buyer emerges for HMV
- Furniture retailing
- UK: DFS reported a 10% rise in gross sales
- UK: Heal’s warehouse suffers huge fire
- UK: IKEA opens new store in Greenwich
- UK: ScS
- …faces battle with Mike Ashley over bid for sofa.com
- …pulls out of running to buy furniture specialist Sofa.com
- Homewares retailing
- UK: Dunelm to sponsor ITV’s This Morning
News Analysis – Other Retail
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- Health & beauty retailing
- UK: Lush opening high-tech concept store in Manchester
- UK: The Fragrance Shop Christmas trading boosted by online
- Book and stationery retailing
- UK: Paperchase considering a CVA
- UK: Smiggle plans to negotiate rent costs with landlords
- UK: The Works reports first half loss
- UK: WHSmith Christmas sales boosted by travel sales
- Sports and leisure goods retailing
- UK: JD Sports on track to hit the higher end of market expectations
- Garden centres
- UK: Wyevale confirms sale of another six stores
News Analysis – Online Shopping
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- UK: Air & Grace sales soar
- UK: AO.com posts record November
- UK: ASOS
- …to launch own-brand homeware collection
- …partners with dance company Candoco
- UK: Boohoo raises profit guidance following strong Christmas quarter
- UK: Emma Mattress Q4 sales surge 170% after Boxing Day success
- UK: Farfetch to prohibit the sale of fur
- UK: Findel posts record-breaking sales over the Christmas period
- UK: Made.com full year revenue hits £100 million mark
- UK: Missguided
- …closing London store just over two years since it opened
- …introduces pay later product to its app
- UK: MySale warns of first half loss as revenues drop
- UK: N Brown Group sales fall
- UK: Ocado
- …losses widen but sales grow
- …to trial one-hour delivery service
- …high-tech robotic distribution centre left severely damaged after fire
- UK: Shop Direct
- …records 3.7% upturn in revenue in the run-up to Christmas
- …reviewing 225 HQ staff roles
News Analysis – Miscellaneous Specialists
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- UK: Halfords warns on profits as Christmas sales fall
- UK: Pets at Home retail like-for-likes up 4.7%
- Toys and games retailing
- UK: Game Digital UK like-for-likes down 0.3% during Christmas trading
- UK: Games Workshop reports increase in both its half year sales and profits
- UK: The Entertainer records Christmas sales boost
News Analysis – Economy
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- UK: December retail sales up by 2.1%
- UK: Network Rail posts 2.3% growth in total retail sales
- UK: retail sales down 0.7% on a like-for-like basis in December
- UK: shop price inflation edges up to highest rate since 2013
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