Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Slowing growth in a competitive landscape
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of potato and tortilla chips, at current prices, 2013-23
- Breaking the habit
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- Figure 2: Factors influencing chips purchase, November 2018
- Despite the bad rap consumers love their chips, for now
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- Figure 3: Attitudes about chips, November 2018
- Opportunities
- Think longer term with younger adults
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- Figure 4: Population by age, 2013-23
- Hear the call for healthier options, and what that means
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- Figure 5: Attitudes toward chips, November 2018
- Diversify your portfolio regardless of brand identity
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- Figure 6: Chip innovation areas, by age, November 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- The $14.6 billion market forecast to continue growth through 2023
- Tortilla chips increase share from 2016-18
- Snacking penetration is near universal, and frequency on the rise
- Health and wellness trends shape demand for healthier chips
- New flavors and varieties
Market Size and Forecast
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- The $14.6 billion market forecast to continue growth through 2023
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of potato and tortilla chips, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of potato and tortilla chips, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Breakdown
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- Potato chips dominate sales, for now
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- Figure 9: Share of potato and tortilla chips sales, by segment, 2018
- Tortilla chips increase share from 2016-18
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales of potato and tortilla chips, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of potato and tortilla chips, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Perspective
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- Growing snack occasion continues to get crowded
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- Figure 12: Snacking frequency, January 2015 and November 2018
- Protein trend encroaches on snack space
Market Factors
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- Concerns about weight, health, and wellness shape market opportunities
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- Figure 13: Percent of people aged 20 or older who are overweight or obese, 2001-02 to 2015-16
- Aging population affects choice
- Boomers seek lows and nos
- Millennials and iGens seek natural, more holistic approach
- Snacking culture supported by demographic trends
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- Figure 14: Population by age, 2013-23
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- PepsiCo is clear market leader
- Ruffles and Pringles chipping away at Lay’s share
- Doritos, Tostitos losing ground to Takis
- Private label brands get creative
- Snack adultification in flavors and functionality
Company and Brand Sales Potato and Tortilla Chips
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- PepsiCo sees modest share slip
- Kellogg’s and Snyder’s-Lance expand reach with core brands
- Sales of potato and tortilla chips by company
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- Figure 15: Multi-outlet sales of potato and tortilla chips, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Private label gains share with premium innovations
What’s Working?
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- Chips with dips
- Ruffles’ innovation targets
- Some like it hot: Takis’and others go extreme
- Adultified tastes
- Food, regional and international inspired tastes
What’s Struggling?
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- BFY struggles to find its footing
What’s Next?
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- A newly defined BFY chip
- Alternative ingredients
- Alternative oils
- Chips get functional with high protein
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Chip purchase nearly universal
- Habit shapes consumption, but a quest for variety is also in play
- Flavor first innovation
- Attitudes related to additives, health, and taste underpin behavior
Chips Purchase
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- 94% have purchased some kind of chip
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- Figure 16: Chips purchase, November 2018
- Figure 17: Chips purchase, repertoire, November 2018
- Age determines chip repertoire
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- Figure 18: Chips purchase, by age, November 2018
- Figure 19: Chips purchase, repertoire, by age, November 2018
- Parents and families remain a key target
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- Figure 20: Chips purchase, by parental status, November 2018
- Hispanic consumers enjoy and engage in the diversity of the category
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- Figure 21: Chips purchase, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2017
Factors Influencing Chips Purchase
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- Price, brand, and flavor-shaping purchase
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- Figure 22: Factors influencing chips purchase, November 2018
- Price is a strong driver for consumers of all ages
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- Figure 23: Factors influencing chips purchase, by age, November 2018
- Parents balance wide range of factors in selecting chips
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- Figure 24: Factors influencing chips purchase, by parental status, November 2018
Chip Occasions
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- Chip type determines occasion opps
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- Figure 25: Chip occasions, November 2018
- Versatility drives parents chip occasion fluidity
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- Figure 26: Chip occasions, by parental status, November 2018
Chip Behaviors
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- Habit shapes consumption, but a quest for variety is also in play
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- Figure 27: Chip behaviors, November 2018
- Those 55+ set in habits, but younger buyers open to variety and impulse
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- Figure 28: Chip behaviors, by age, November 2018
- Pantries of affluent consumers are diverse
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- Figure 29: Chip behaviors, by household income, November 2018
- Parents’ behavior reveals high engagement in category
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- Figure 30: Chip behaviors, by parental status, November 2018
Chip Innovation Areas
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- Innovations related to flavor, health and quality
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- Figure 31: Chip innovation areas, November 2018
- Adults 35-54 want healthier chips, but flavor is prime for 18-34 year olds
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- Figure 32: Chip innovation areas, by age, November 2018
- Parents show high interest in a wide range of innovations
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- Figure 33: Chip innovation areas, by parental status, November 2018
- Interest in innovation high among those who have purchased more
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- Figure 34: Chip innovation areas, by those who have purchased more in past year or seek new chips, November 2018
Attitudes toward Chips
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- Attitudes related to additives, health and taste underpin behavior
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- Figure 35: Health-related attitudes toward chips, November 2018
- Key attitudes suggest opportunity for both premium and private label
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- Figure 36: Attitudes toward chips, November 2018
- Younger consumers eager for healthier chip options and free samples
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- Figure 37: Attitudes toward chips, by age, November 2018
- Highly engaged want more samples and healthier chip options
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- Figure 38: Chip innovation areas, by those who have purchased more in past year or seek new chips, November 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 39: Total US sales and forecast of potato and tortilla chips, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 40: Total US sales and forecast of potato chips, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 41: Total US sales and forecast of potato chips, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 42: Total US sales and forecast of tortilla chips, at current prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 43: Total US sales and forecast of tortilla chips, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 44: Total US retail sales of potato and tortilla chips, by channel, at current prices, 2013-2018
- Figure 45: Distribution of population, by age, race, and Hispanic origin, 2018
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 46: Multi-outlet sales of potato chips, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Figure 47: Multi-outlet sales of tortilla chips, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
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