Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Retail sales growth slowed
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- Figure 1: Retail sales value growth, 2014-18
- Consumer confidence falls
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- Figure 2: Mintel financial confidence tracker, January 2017-January 2019
- But real incomes are rising and unemployment is low
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- Figure 3: Real wage growth: wage growth vs inflation, January 2016-December 2018
- A weak housing market adds to uncertainty
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- Figure 4: Consumer credit outstanding as % of all consumer spending, 2009-18
- Black Friday still growing
- The shift to online continues
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- Figure 5: Online sales as % of all retail sales, 2013-18
- Figure 6: Online sales: pureplayers vs store-based retailers, 2008-18
- The retailers
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- Figure 7: Selected retail sectors’ sales growth, December 2018 and all 2018
- The consumer
- In-store and online used almost equally
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- Figure 8: How they bought gifts for Christmas, December 2018
- Home delivery dominates online orders
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- Figure 9: How they had Christmas gifts delivered, December 2018
- Gift buyers spend an average of £339
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- Figure 10: What they spend on Christmas gifts, by age, December 2018
- 45-54 year-olds buy for the most people
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- Figure 11: Who they buy Christmas gifts for, December 2018
- Clothing the most popular gift purchase
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- Figure 12: What they bought as Christmas gifts, December 2018
- November is the most popular time to start shopping
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- Figure 13: When they start shopping for Christmas gifts, December 2018
- A chance to reach new shoppers
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- Figure 14: Christmas shopping behaviours, December 2018
- Ethical gifting, discounting and visiting high streets
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- Figure 15: Attitudes towards shopping for Christmas gifts, December 2018
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Where next for the high street and what about Christmas 2019?
- The facts
- The implications
- Nowhere to hide
- Lessons for 2019
- Online – will it ever stop growing?
- The facts
- The implications
- Looking to have a more sustainable Christmas
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Retail sales growth has slowed
- And the outlook is uncertain
- Black Friday still growing
- Online growing, but store-based retailers growing faster than pureplayers
Retail Sales Performance
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- Retail sales slowing in the final quarter
- Retail sales value growth slowing
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- Figure 16: Retail sales value growth, 2014-18
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- Figure 17: Retail sales volume growth, 2014-18
Market Drivers
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- Consumer confidence drifting down
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- Figure 18: Mintel financial confidence tracker, January 2017-January 2019
- Real incomes are still growing
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- Figure 19: Real wages growth: wages growth vs inflation, January 2016-December 2018
- Interest rates rising
- Brexit leads to uncertainty
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- Figure 20: Consumer reactions to the prospect of Brexit, July 2016-January 2019
- Consumer credit falling in real terms
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- Figure 21: Consumer credit outstanding as % of all consumer spending, 2009-18
- Outlook uncertain
Black Friday
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- 39% bought something over Black Friday
- Signs of disillusionment?
- Where next for Black Friday?
Online
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- Online share growing
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- Figure 22: Online sales as % of all retail sales, 2013-18
- Stores vs pureplayers
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- Figure 23: Online sales: pureplayers vs store-based retailers, 2008-18
- Online by retail sector
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- Figure 24: Online retailers’ sales growth, by retail sector, 2018 on 2017
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- Figure 25: Online sales, by retail sector, 2008 and 2018
- Online sales by product
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- Figure 26: Online retailing, estimated sales by product, 2017
- Online – where next?
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Not a bad Christmas despite discounting
- Food retailers supported by the specialists
- Clothing becomes even more competitive
- A Christmas of extremes in the department stores
- Online very strong
- Adspend returns to growth in 2018
Retailer Christmas Trading Performance
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- Retail sales up 2.1% in December
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- Figure 27: Retail sales, by sector, year-on-year growth, December 2018 and all 2018
- Food retailers finish on a weak note
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- Figure 28: Food retailers’ Xmas sales performance, 2018
- Clothing – a reasonable Christmas after a difficult year
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- Figure 29: Clothing retailers’ Xmas sales performance, 2018
- Department stores at the extremes
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- Figure 30: Department stores’ Xmas sales performance, 2018
- Other specialists
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- Figure 31: Other store-based retailers: Xmas sales performance 2018
- Non-store still growing strongest overall
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- Figure 32: Non-store retailers’ Xmas sales performance, 2018
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Fourth quarter adspend returns to growth in 2018
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- Figure 33: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total and annual change in spending by retailers on advertising during Q4, 2014-18
- Amazon dominates spending in Q4
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- Figure 34: Leading retailers’ spending on recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising, October-December 2018
- 36% of spend takes place in Q4
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- Figure 35: Leading retailers’ spending on recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising, Q1-3 and Q4 split, 2018
- TV accounts for half of spending
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- Figure 36: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising spend by retailers, by media type, Q4 2018
- Supermarkets lead spending in Q4
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- Figure 37: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising spend by retailers, by advertiser type, Q4 2018
- Key campaigns
- John Lewis ad features Elton John
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- Figure 38: ‘Some gifts are more than just a gift’ Elton John advert, Dec 2018
- Amazon makes boxes smile
- Argos highlights ease of delivery
- Do a bit of Debenhams
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- Figure 39: ‘Do a bit of…’ campaign by Debenhams, Dec 2018
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- 77% of gift buyers made an in-store purchase
- Gift buyers spend an average of £339
- 49% buy presents for non-family members
- Clothing is the most popular gift
- November the most popular time to start shopping
- Christmas exposes people to new stores
- High streets offer more than just transactions
- 60% think you don’t need to pay full price for gifts
- A more ethical and sustainable Christmas
How They Buy
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- Multichannel shopping dominates
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- Figure 40: How they shop for Christmas gifts, December 2018
- Online shopping offers an easier way to research
- Single-parent families rely on online shopping
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- Figure 41: How they bought gifts for Christmas, December 2018
- Commuters lead on smartphone shopping
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- Figure 42: Smartphone gift buyers, by where they live and where they spend their days, December 2018
- Home delivery dominates online orders
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- Figure 43: How they had Christmas gifts delivered, December 2018
What They Spend
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- Shoppers spend £339 each on Christmas gifts
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- Figure 44: What they spend on Christmas gifts, by age, December 2018
- Spending peaks for parents of teenagers
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- Figure 45: What they spend on Christmas gifts, by age of children in the household, December 2018
- Fewer people increased their spending
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- Figure 46: Spending compared to last year, December 2018
- Electricals buyers most likely to have increased spending
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- Figure 47: What they bought, by what they spent compared to the previous Christmas, December 2018
- Londoners most likely to increase spending
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- Figure 48: Increased spending compared to last year, by region, December 2018
Who They Buy For
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- Christmas is a time for families
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- Figure 49: Who they buy Christmas gifts for, December 2018
- 45-54 year olds buy for the most people
- Multi-generational buying adds complexity
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- Figure 50: Repertoire analysis of who they bought Christmas gifts for, by age and gender, December 2018
What They Buy
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- Clothing the most popular gift purchase
- 89% gave a physical gift
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- Figure 51: What they bought as Christmas gifts, December 2018
- Experiences remain the preserve of the affluent
- Electricals bought by younger shoppers
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- Figure 52: What they bought as Christmas gifts, by average age and socio-economic group, December 2018
- The gender split evident in choosing gifts
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- Figure 53: Debenhams gifting huts split by recipient interest, December 2018
- Figure 54: What they bought as gifts, percentage point difference between men and women, December 2018
When They Shop
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- November is the most popular time to start shopping
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- Figure 55: When they start shopping for Christmas gifts, December 2018
- Women start their shopping earlier
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- Figure 56: When they start shopping for Christmas gifts, by gender, December 2018
- Late-starting shoppers head for the stores
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- Figure 57: How they shopped for Christmas gifts, by when they started shopping, December 2018
- Londoners most likely to leave it to the last minute
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- Figure 58: Starting Christmas shopping in December, by region, December 2018
Shopping Behaviours
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- Christmas offers a chance to reach new customers
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- Figure 59: Gin & Tonic gift shop in John Lewis, December 2018
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- Figure 60: Christmas shopping behaviours, December 2018
- Credit and overspending
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- Figure 61: Christmas shopping behaviours, by financial situation, December 2018
Attitudes towards Shopping for Christmas Gifts
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- High streets offer more than just transactions
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- Figure 62: Attitudes towards shopping for Christmas gifts, by age and gender, December 2018
- Promotions erode trust and cause confusion
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- Figure 63: Attitudes towards shopping for Christmas gifts, by age and gender, December 2018
- Ethical gifting gains traction
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- Figure 64: Attitudes towards shopping for Christmas gifts, by gender and age, December 2018
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
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