Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Fast casuals lack distinctiveness
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- Figure 1: Dining occasion by restaurant segment, by correspondence analysis, December 2018
- Fast casuals have a low-value perception
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- Figure 2: Fast casual attitudes, December 2018
- Fast casuals must attract diners beyond lunchtime
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- Figure 3: Fast casual behaviors, by dayparts, December 2018
- The opportunities
- Fast casual visitation is up
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- Figure 4: Year-over-year change in restaurant visitation, December 2018
- iGens and Millennials drive fast casual growth
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- Figure 5: Year-over-year change in fast casual restaurant visitation, by generation, December 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Segment blurring creates increased competition for fast casuals
- Fast casual chains fuel LSR segment growth
Market Perspective
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- QSRs focus on plant-based proteins and transparent sourcing
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- Figure 6: Restaurant segment preferences – LSRs, by gender/age, October 2018
- Casual dining competes for off-premise occasions
Market Factors
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- LSR segment growth will outperform FSR segment
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- Figure 7: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, at current prices, 2018 and 2023
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- Figure 8: Top 10 fast casual restaurant chain percentage change in sales over prior year, 2017
- iGens become increasingly important diners for operators
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- Figure 9: Population, by generation, 2013-23
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Korean fast casuals proliferate while poke concepts decline in popularity
- Fast casuals invest in delivery
- Happy hour specials attract evening diners
What’s Working?
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- Korean fast casuals allow consumers to experiment with international cuisines
- Fast casuals and third-party delivery companies define their relationship status
What’s Struggling?
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- Has poke peaked?
What’s Next?
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- Dieters are welcome
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- Figure 10: Chipotle Lifestyle bowls
- Fast casuals become happy hour destinations
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Fast casual customers report high satisfaction
- Lack of distinctiveness threatens fast casuals
- Panera and Chipotle are top-visited fast casuals
- Fast casual operators must look beyond lunch
Restaurant Visitation
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- Fast food restaurants have highest visitation
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- Figure 11: Restaurant visitation, December 2018
- Fast causal chain visitation highest among suburban dwellers
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- Figure 12: Fast casual restaurant visitation, by area, December 2018
- Parents are heavy fast casual users
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- Figure 13: Fast casual restaurant visitation, by parental status, December 2018
- Black consumers have significantly lower fast casual restaurant visitation
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- Figure 14: Fast casual restaurant visitation, by race and Hispanic origin, December 2018
Year-over-year Change in Restaurant Visitation
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- Consumers are increasingly visiting fast casuals
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- Figure 15: Year-over-year change in restaurant visitation, December 2018
- iGens drive fast casual growth
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- Figure 16: Year-over-year change in fast casual restaurant visitation, by generation, December 2018
Fast Casual Chain Visitation
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- Panera Bread leads in visitation
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- Figure 17: Fast casual chain visitation, December 2018
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- Figure 18: Fast casual chain visitation, by region, December 2018
- High-income correlates with Panera Bread visitation
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- Figure 19: Fast casual chain visitation, by household income, December 2018
- Chipotle is popular with iGens
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- Figure 20: Fast casual chain visitation, by generation, December 2018
Dining Occasion by Restaurant Segment
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- Fast casual restaurants lack distinctive dining out occasions
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- Figure 21: Dining occasion by restaurant segment, by correspondence analysis, December 2018
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- Figure 22: Dining occasion by restaurant segment, December 2018
- Younger diners more likely to associate fast casual restaurants with socializing
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- Figure 23: Dining occasion – Fast casual, by generation, December 2018
- Dads more likely to associate fast casuals with morning meals and sports
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- Figure 24: Dining occasion – Fast casual, by parental status and gender, December 2018
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- Figure 25: Breakfast/brunch beverages of interest – Coffee, April 2018
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- Figure 26: Postmates promotional email “FREE delivery from Chipotle for this super weekend!”, February 2018
Fast Casual Satisfaction
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- More than 9 out of 10 consumers are satisfied with fast casuals
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- Figure 27: Fast casual satisfaction, December 2018
- Customer service and menu item variety drive fast casual satisfaction
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- Figure 28: Key drivers of satisfaction with fast casual restaurants, net any satisfaction, December 2018
Fast Casual Important Attributes
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- Real ingredients and fresh vegetables are of top importance
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- Figure 29: Fast casual important attributes, December 2018
- Baby Boomers prioritize health
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- Figure 30: Fast casual important attributes, by generation, December 2018
- iGens and Millennials desire innovative menu items
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- Figure 31: Fast casual important attributes, by generation, December 2018
- Hispanic diners crave global and regional flavors
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- Figure 32: Fast casual important attributes, by Hispanic origin, December 2018
- Noodles & Company customers seek innovative and plant-based dishes
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- Figure 33: Fast casual important attributes, by fast casual chain visitation, December 2018
Fast Casual Attitudes
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- Specials could help drive sales, but fast casuals need to improve value perceptions
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- Figure 34: Fast casual attitudes, December 2018
- Younger consumers want portable snacks
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- Figure 35: Fast casual attitudes, by age and gender, December 2018
Fast Casual Behaviors
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- Meals beyond lunch remain an important opportunity
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- Figure 36: Fast casual behaviors, December 2018
- Younger urban consumers drive fast casual off-premise ordering
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- Figure 37: Fast casual behaviors, by gender and age, December 2018
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- Figure 38: Fast casual behaviors, by area, December 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 39: Full service dining motivators, by changes in behavior – Restaurant visitation, December 2018
- Key Driver Analysis
- Interpretation of results
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- Figure 40: Level of satisfaction with fast casual restaurants – Key driver output, December 2018
- Correspondence Analysis
- Methodology
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