Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Is marginal growth a precursor of a category plateau?
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2013-23
- The opportunities
- Help to break the mealtime monotony
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- Figure 2: Protein consumption frequency, September 2018
- Red meat’s woes and successes can be a model for poultry opportunity
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- Figure 3: Poultry behavior – Consumption versus last year, September 2018
- iGens and Millennials and, yep, GenXers can power newer occasions
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- Figure 4: Protein occasions – Chicken and turkey, by for dinner, for lunch, for breakfast, and as a snack, September 2018
- Hard “clean” claims outweigh ethical
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- Figure 5: Poultry claims, September 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Conservative gains, sizeable market
- Poultry delivers on value
- Healthy eating is on consumer radars
- Poultry’s value appeals even in an improved economy
Market Size and Forecast
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- Category continues marginal growth
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- Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Breakdown
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- Chickens rule of the roost continues
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- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
Market Perspective
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- Health, versatility, and price make poultry the protein of choice
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- Figure 9: Protein perceptions – Healthy, good value, and convenient, September 2018
- Figure 10: Changes in food price indices, 2017-18
- Plant-based alternatives
- From cells to poultry
- Online butchers a niche part of the poultry market
Market Factors
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- Most consumers strive to eat healthy
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- Figure 11: Approaches to healthy eating, May 2018
- Affordable poultry holds its own despite improved economy
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- Figure 12: Consumer Sentiment Index
- Away from home opportunities grow
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- Figure 13: Consumer expenditures for food, September 2017 and September 2018
- Uncertainty in trade issues threaten market volatility
- Consumers are waiting longer to have children
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- Figure 14: Households, by presence of own children, 2008-18
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Leading brands struggle, private labels gain traction
- Top turkey companies post gains
- Brands strive for minimally processed, clean positioning
- Going international
- Next level convenience in poultry innovation
Company and Brand Sales of Poultry
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- Tyson continues domination, but slips
- Perdue refreshes packaging to offset struggles
- Recalls, scandals plague JBS
- Turkey brands take flight
- Private label brightens the category
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- Figure 15: Multi-outlet sales of poultry, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
What’s Working?
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- Private label gains brand share with value, innovation
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- Figure 16: Multi-outlet dollar and unit sales of poultry, by percent change of store brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Figure 17: Attribute scores of poultry – Tasty, exciting, good value, by name brands and store brands, January 2017-November 2018
- “Clean” labels and transparency gain trust
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- Figure 18: Launches of poultry, by hormone-free, all-natural product, and no additives/preservatives, 2017-18*
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- Figure 19: Multi-outlet sales of poultry, by select growing brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Fresh birds
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- Figure 20: Poultry formats purchased – Any fresh poultry and any frozen poultry, September 2018
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- Figure 21: Purchase intent of poultry, by select fresh products, January 2017 – September 2018
- Going global
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- Figure 22: Purchase intent of poultry, by select internationally inspired products, January 2017-November 2018
- Plant-based nuggets, patties, and strips
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- Figure 23: Multi-outlet sales of poultry, by select meatless brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
What’s Struggling?
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- Category leaders lose share to store brands
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- Figure 24: Multi-outlet dollar and unit sales of poultry, by percent change of name brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
What’s Next?
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- Snacking with the bird
- Prepared meals and kits offer next-level convenience
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Chicken leads the protein pecking order
- A time and place for both fresh and frozen
- Frequency may have peaked, interest has not
- Turkey chipping away at seasonal ties
- Mix of excitement and convenience sought after
- Claims that signify “clean” top wish list
Poultry Species Purchased
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- Chicken, turkey far outpace other birds
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- Figure 25: Poultry types purchased, September 2018
- Young adults reaching for turkey more
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- Figure 26: Poultry types purchased – Chicken and turkey, by age, September 2018
- Men, fathers buy a broader repertoire of poultry types
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- Figure 27: Poultry types purchased, by parental status by gender, September 2018
Poultry Types Purchased
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- Fresh and frozen both have their place at the table
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- Figure 28: Poultry types purchased, September 2018
- Participant repertoires are 50/50
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- Figure 29: Repertoire of poultry types purchased, September 2018
- Larger households seek flexibility
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- Figure 30: Repertoire of poultry types purchased – Four or more types, by household size, September 2018
Poultry Consumption
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- More than half of consumers eat chicken a few times a week
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- Figure 31: Protein consumption frequency, September 2018
- Younger men, fathers are most frequent poultry eaters
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- Figure 32: Protein consumption frequency – Chicken, turkey, and other poultry, by gender and age and parental status by gender, September 2018
Protein Perceptions
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- Leveraging versatility, convenience can nudge consumption
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- Figure 33: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Protein perceptions, September 2018
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- Figure 34: Protein perceptions, September 2018
- Younger consumers chipping away at turkey’s seasonality
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- Figure 35: Protein perceptions – Turkey, by seasonal, September 2018
- If you can, hitch your brand to the protein trend
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- Figure 36: Protein perceptions – Good source of protein, September 2018
Protein Occasions
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- Keep poultry from becoming mundane
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- Figure 37: Correspondence Analysis – Symmetrical map – Protein occasions, September 2018
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- Figure 38: Protein occasions, September 2018
- Protein content and versatility make snacking a next step
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- Figure 39: Protein occasions – Chicken and turkey, by for dinner, for lunch, for breakfast, and as a snack, September 2018
Poultry Behavior
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- Red meat’s decline is poultry’s gain
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- Figure 40: Poultry behavior, September 2018
- Women use variety of types, but men increasing consumption
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- Figure 41: Poultry behavior, by gender and age and parental status by gender, September 2018
- Larger households dive deeper into category versatility
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- Figure 42: Poultry behavior – I used different types depending on the occasion, by household size, September 2018
Poultry Attitudes
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- Category participants still interested in exploration
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- Figure 43: Poultry attitudes, September 2018
- Older consumers seek to diversify, younger adults experiment and develop skills
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- Figure 44: Poultry attitudes, by generation, September 2018
- Parents looking for help managing family mealtime
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- Figure 45: Poultry attitudes – Parental status, September 2018
Poultry Claims
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- Consumers are a little confused by claims
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- Figure 46: Poultry claims, September 2018
- Women seek clean ethics, men choose convenience
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- Figure 47: Poultry claims, by gender, September 2018
- Clean, free-from are “ageless” claims
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- Figure 48: Poultry claims, by age, September 2018
- Mix of free-from claims, convenience, and quality maximizes reach
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- Figure 49: TURF Analysis – Poultry claims, September 2018
- Ethical, clean claims substantiate other poultry
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- Figure 50: Poultry purchase, by poultry claims, September 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- TURF Methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 51: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 52: Total US retail sales and forecast of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 53: Total US retail sales of poultry, by segment, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
- Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken, at current prices, 2013-23
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- Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of chicken, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at current prices, 2013-23
- Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of other poultry, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2013-23
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales of poultry, by channel, at current prices, 2016 and 2018
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 59: Multi-outlet sales of chicken, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017 and 2018
- Figure 60: Multi-outlet sales of other poultry, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2017 and 2018
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