Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- The issues
- One third of diners are adventurous, but the majority still stick to what they know
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- Figure 1: Self-segmentation – Dining out, July 2018
- Range of barriers limit trial of new tastes and foods
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- Figure 2: New food trial barriers, by segment, July 2018
- The opportunities
- Adventurous eaters tend to be younger, more diverse, and affluent
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- Figure 3: Demographic profile of consumers who consider themselves adventurous eaters, July 2018
- Adventurous eaters seek out a wide variety of flavors
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- Figure 4: Interest in flavor, for adventurous eaters, July 2018
- Many factors and tools can propel diners to try new ingredients
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- Figure 5: Trial motivators – Any rank, July 2018
- New spins on comfort food classics can appeal to diners
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- Figure 6: Dining out attitudes – Any agree, July 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Positive macroeconomics propel growth, but landscape is competitive
- Adventurous iGens and Millennials seek diverse, trendy, international fare
- Weight-loss and wellness goals continue to shape menu innovation
Market Perspective
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- AFH food consumption grows, although prices rising faster for AH food
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- Figure 7: At home and away from home food sales, January 2003-August 2018
- Diverse, competitive retail landscape with fast casual growing in reach
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- Figure 8: Total US revenues and forecast of restaurants and eating places*, by segment, at current prices, 2016-23
- Menu innovation is widespread across segments
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- Figure 9: Menu incidence change, by restaurant segment, Q2 2015-18
- Expanded foodservice in grocery stores and c-stores compounds competition
- Coffee shops and breweries expand their reach, appeal to younger generations
Market Factors
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- Positive macroeconomics allow more spending and experimentation
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- Figure 10: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-August 2018
- Younger generations are engaged, open to variety and innovation
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- Figure 11: US population aged 18+, by generation, 2013-23
- Affluent and aging boomers will also drive demand, especially for traditional and healthy food
- Multicultural diversity shapes consumer base
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- Figure 12: Distribution of population, by age race/Hispanic origin, 2018
- Adventurous parents drive demand for innovative family-friendly fare
- Health and weight concerns drive interest in quality, healthful food
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Global flavor profiles and fresh, healthy ingredients drive demand
- Refreshed American fare, comfort food, and meats draw consumers
- Select chains and casual family restaurants struggle to adapt
- Technology may give access to more varied, customized menus
- Trucks, food halls, and new store concepts bring new options to foodies
What’s Working?
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- Global flavor profiles and bold use of spice
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- Figure 13: Menu incidence change, by menu item cuisine type, Q2 2015-18
- International foods bring new flavors and spices to menus
- Healthy living drives demand for clean, organic, and vegetarian fare
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- Figure 14: Menu incidence change, by select ingredients, Q2 2015-18
- Figure 15: Menu incidence change, by select menu item claims, Q2 2015-18
- Bowls offer healthy, fresh ingredients in customizable forms
- Mocktails on the rise, while kombucha emerges as popular healthful drink
- Regional American favorites and new takes on comfort food
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- Figure 16: Menu incidence change, by North American cuisine type, Q2 2015-18
- Meats and “meaty” flavors dominate for mains and are likely to grow
- Grilling draws out “meaty” flavors and adds “smoky” and other savory notes
- Spices and next generation vegan “meats” expand access to “meaty” flavors
What’s Struggling?
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- Casual dining struggles, losing share to nimbler, innovative fast casual
- Struggles of sandwich chains show pitfalls of overexpansion and stagnant menus lacking innovation
What’s Next?
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- Digital innovations can expand access and menu customization
- New concepts support food sampling, customization, and new fare
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- About a third self-identify as “adventurous eaters”
- Almost three quarters either like or love spicy foods
- Fear they won’t like the taste is a main barrier for diners trying new food
- Recommendations of friends/family often motivates trial
- Flavor preferences vary for mains, side dishes, and desserts
- Robust interest in LTOs, especially those unique to a restaurant
- Many open to trendy, international cuisine, but still love comfort food
Adventurous Eaters
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- A third are adventurous, but the majority stick to what they know
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- Figure 17: Self-segmentation – Dining out, July 2018
- Millennials and parents are more likely to be adventurous
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- Figure 18: Demographic profile of self-segmentation – Dining out, July 2018
- Hispanics and Asians less likely to have middle-ground attitude to food
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- Figure 19: Self-segmentation – Dining out, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2018
Spicy Food Lovers
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- Three quarters like – or love! – spicy food
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- Figure 20: Self-segmentation – Spicy, July 2018
- Adventurous food eaters especially likely to prize spice
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- Figure 21: Self-segmentation – Spicy, by self-segmentation – Dining out, July 2018
- Younger consumers, parents, and men often embrace spice
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- Figure 22: Profile of self-segmentation – Spicy, by key demographics, July 2018
- Asians, Pacific Islanders, and Hispanics more likely to love spicy food
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- Figure 23: Self segmentation – Spicy, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2018
Barriers to Trying New Food
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- Fear of not liking the taste is prime barrier to trying new food
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- Figure 24: New food trial barriers, July 2018
- Less adventurous cite multiple obstacles to trying new foods
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- Figure 25: New food trial barriers, by self-segmentation – Dining out, July 2018
- Gender shapes barriers to trying new foods
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- Figure 26: New food trial barriers, by gender, July 2018
- Older generations’ fear of not liking new tastes limits adventurousness
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- Figure 27: New food trial barriers, by generation, July 2018
Trial Motivators
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- Recommendations are top-ranked reason for trying new food
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- Figure 28: Trial motivators, July 2018
- The adventurous more likely to look to server, reviews, and social media
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- Figure 29: Trial motivators, by self-segmentation – Dining out, July 2018
- Among parents, social media recommendations are more important
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- Figure 30: Trial motivators, by parental status, July 2018
Flavor Preferences
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- Four flavors dominate, but many others offer nuance and variety
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- Figure 31: Interest in flavor, for any menu item, July 2018
- Adventurous eaters seek greater number and wider range of flavors
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- Figure 32: Interest in flavor, by self-segmentation – Dining out, July 2018
- Men seek meaty flavors, while women favor milder, vegetarian flavors
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- Figure 33: Interest in flavors, by gender, July 2018
- Supporting foodie profile, younger generations seek range of flavors
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- Figure 34: Interest in flavors, by generation, July 2018
Interest in Flavor by Menu Item
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- “Meaty” most popular flavor for mains, “cheesy” sought in side dishes
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- Figure 35: Interest in flavor, for main entrees and side dishes, July 2018
- For dessert, consumers seek “sweet,” “fruity,” and “nutty” flavors
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- Figure 36: Interest in flavor, for dessert, July 2018
- Breakfast tastes are varied, as consumers embrace a range of flavors
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- Figure 37: Interest in flavor, for breakfast, July 2018
- For drinks, “sweet” and “fruity” are dominant flavors
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- Figure 38: Interest in flavor, for beverages, July 2018
LTO Interest
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- Half motivated by “unique to restaurant” LTO menu items
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- Figure 39: Interest in limited time menu items, July 2018
- Top five LTOs will appeal to over four fifths of diners
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- Figure 40: TURF analysis – LTO interest, July 2018
- LTOs appealing to 95% of adventurous eaters
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- Figure 41: Interest in limited time menu items, by self-segmentation – Dining out, July 2018
- Sweeter, healthier LTOs appeal to women, “over the top” LTOs to men
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- Figure 42: Interest in limited time menu items, by gender, July 2018
- Younger diners eager for range of LTOs, including “over the top” fare
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- Figure 43: Interest in limited time menu items, by generation, July 2018
- Parents eager for sweet and indulgent fare in LTOs
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- Figure 44: Interest in limited time menu items, by parental status, July 2018
Attitudes toward Cuisine and Restaurants
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- Many open to trendy and international cuisine, but still love comfort food
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- Figure 45: Attitudes toward different types of foods, cuisines, and textures, July 2018
- Attitudes support innovation, bigger condiment bars, and savvy servers
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- Figure 46: Attitudes toward restaurants, July 2018
- The adventurous embrace trendy and international food
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- Figure 47: Attitudes toward different types of foods, cuisines, and textures, by self-segmentation – Dining out, July 2018
- Adventurousness shapes attitudes to servers, condiments, and more
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- Figure 48: Attitudes toward restaurants, by self-segmentation – Dining out, July 2018
- Women value texture, and are more open to international, “trendy” fare
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- Figure 49: Select attitudes toward food and restaurants, by gender, July 2018
- iGens and Millennials more likely to embrace international, trendy fare
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- Figure 50: Select attitudes toward food and restaurants, by generation, July 2018
- Parents’ attitudes show high interest in international and trendy fare
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- Figure 51: Select attitudes toward food and restaurants, by parental status, July 2018
- Hispanics value comfort food, eager for wider condiment selection
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- Figure 52: Select attitudes toward food and restaurants, by Hispanic origin, July 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – TURF Analysis
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- Figure 53: Table – TURF analysis – LTO interest, July 2018
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Appendix – Consumer
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- Figure 54: Interest in flavor, for mains, by generation, July 2018
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- Figure 55: Interest in flavor, for mains, by gender, July 2018
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- Figure 56: Interest in flavor, for dessert, by gender, July 2018
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- Figure 57: Interest in flavor, for dessert, by generation, July 2018
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