Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Total market value is estimated to reach over RMB 2.1 trillion in 2022
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- Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast for breakfast foods, 2012-22
- Food price decreased in 2017 but consumers spend more on breakfast both at home and out of home
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- Figure 2: Best- and worst-case forecast of at-home breakfast spending, 2012-22
- Figure 3: Best- and worst-case forecast of out-of-home breakfast spending, 2012-22
- Key players
- Convenience store breakfast influence continues to grow
- Packaged bread and cake have opportunities through improved quality
- Cereal brands still need efforts to educate the market
- The consumer
- Breakfast carts/kiosks and convenience stores keep attracting consumers
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- Figure 4: Breakfast consumption frequency, by location, February 2018
- Consumers spend more on at-home breakfast in 2018 than 2016
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- Figure 5: Breakfast spending at home, April 2016 and February 2018
- Figure 6: Breakfast spending, by location, February 2018
- Nutrition, safety and freshness are premium features
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- Figure 7: Upgrade drivers for breakfast foods, February 2018
- Chinese consumers welcome hot breakfast
- Energy boost breakfast: a missing opportunity
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- Figure 8: Breakfast needs on weekdays, February 2018
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- Figure 9: Breakfast needs on weekends, February 2018
- Figure 10: Breakfast needs with families, February 2018
- Authentic Chinese breakfast is the mainstream but fusion foods have chance depending on channels
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- Figure 11: Consumers’ interest in fusion foods for breakfast, February 2018
- It’s good to see consumers’ growing awareness of protecting the environment
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- Figure 12: Consumers’ expectation of breakfast delivery, February 2018
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Convenience store dominance grows
- The facts
- The implications
- At-home breakfast needs diversification
- The facts
- The implications
- Standardisation of breakfast is a long-term perspective
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Total spending on breakfast in 2017 has exceeded RMB 1.5 trillion
- Food price decreased but consumers are trading up on breakfast
- Industrialisation together with urbanisation drives the market growth
Market Size and Forecast
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- Breakfast spending grows higher and stably
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- Figure 13: Breakfast spending, China, 2012-17
- Per capita spending keeps growing
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- Figure 14: Per capita breakfast spending per day, RMB, 2011-17
- Figure 15: Year-on-year increase of average food price, 2011-17
- Look forward to a market value of over RMB 2 trillion in 2022
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- Figure 16: Best- and worst-case forecast for breakfast foods, 2012-22
Market Drivers
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- The diversification of the breakfast occasion
- Urbanisation motivates out-of-home breakfast spending
Market Segmentation
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- At-home breakfast robust
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- Figure 17: Best- and worst-case forecast of at-home breakfast spending, 2012-22
- Out-of-home breakfast even stronger
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- Figure 18: Best- and worst-case forecast of out-of-home breakfast spending, 2012-22
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Convenience stores will remain popular breakfast channels
- The rise of domestic packaged bread brands
- Cereal products can find chance in the market
Competitive Strategies
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- Sanquan launches business-to-business project
- Convenience store provides customisation experience
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- Figure 19: Breakfast collection service provided by Bianlifeng in Beijing, China
- Apply popular flavours in breakfast foods
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- Figure 20: Golden Sandy Rice Roll by KFC, China
- Toly – rely on traditional distribution
Who’s Innovating?
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- Brands are promoting packaged bakery products with better quality for at-home breakfast
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- Figure 21: Packaged bread and cake by Daliyuan, China
- Figure 22: New launches in bread and bread products category, by selected flavour, China, 2015-17
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- Figure 23: Premium biscuit project launched by Three Squirrels in 2018
- Cereal brands appeal to nutrition and health benefit
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- Figure 24: New launches in breakfast cereal category with fruit ingredient, China, 2015-17
- Figure 25: New Launches in cereal category with TCM and superfood as ingredients, China
- Overnight oats are popular in Western countries
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- Figure 26: Examples of overnight oat products in Western market
- Starbucks launched Greek yogurt in mid-2017
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- Figure 27: Greek yogurt by Starbucks, China
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Spending on breakfast at home has increased hugely
- Tradition can’t change easily – breakfast has to be warm or hot
- Fusion food attracts consumers on certain channels
Breakfast Consumption Frequency
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- Frequency of breakfast at home fluctuates
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- Figure 28: Breakfast consumption frequency, by location, February 2018
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- Figure 29: Breakfast consumption frequency, at home, 2016-18
- Breakfast carts/kiosks and convenience stores keep attracting consumption
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- Figure 30: Breakfast consumption frequency, breakfast kiosks, 2016-18
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- Figure 31: Breakfast consumption frequency, convenience stores, 2016-18
- Two other places have potential to grow further
Breakfast Spending
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- Breakfast at home or breakfast carts/kiosks usually costs up to RMB 10
- Coffee houses and casual dining restaurants occupy the high end
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- Figure 32: Breakfast spending, by location, February 2018
- Consumers spend more for breakfast at home than 2016
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- Figure 33: Breakfast spending at home, April 2016 and February 2018
Premiumisation Opportunity
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- Nutrition, safety and fresh are premium features
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- Figure 34: Upgrade drivers for breakfast foods, February 2018
- Time saving and convenience means much for breakfast
- Customisation attracts women aged 20-39 and men aged 25-29
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- Figure 35: Upgrade drivers, customisable to one’s taste, by gender and age, February 2018
Breakfast Needs by Occasion
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- Weekdays need filling and energy-boosting breakfasts
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- Figure 36: Breakfast needs on weekdays, February 2018
- Demands on weekends and with families are similar
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- Figure 37: Breakfast needs on weekends, February 2018
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- Figure 38: Breakfast needs with families, February 2018
- Breakfast has to be hot – tradition can’t change easily
Consumers’ Interest in Fusion Foods
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- Tradition still dominates the Chinese breakfast table…
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- Figure 39: Consumers’ interest in fusion foods for breakfast, February 2018
- …but interests widen with spending and channels
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- Figure 40: Consumers’ interest in fusion foods for breakfast, by spending in fast food chains, February 2018
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- Figure 41: Consumers’ interest in fusion foods for breakfast, by spending in casual dining restaurants, February 2018
Opportunities for Breakfast Delivery Service
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- Warm breakfast is everything
- Awareness of environmental friendliness grows
- Demand for punctuality reflects need for time saving
- Willingness to pay for delivery services indicates opportunity
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- Figure 42: Consumers’ expectation of breakfast delivery, February 2018
Meet the Mintropolitans
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- Mintropolitans have higher interest in fusion foods
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- Figure 43: Consumers’ interest in fusion foods, by consumer classification, February 2018
- Mintropolitans need breakfast which is energy-boosting
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- Figure 44: Breakfast needs on weekdays, by consumer classification, February 2018
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- Figure 45: Breakfast needs with families, by consumer classification, February 2018
- Mintropolitans are more willing to pay for breakfast delivery
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- Figure 46: Consumers’ expectation of breakfast delivery, by consumer classification, February 2018
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 47: Total spending on breakfast foods, China, 2012-22
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Appendix – Market Segmentation
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- Figure 48: Total spending on breakfast foods, by segmentation, China, 2012-22
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Appendix – Methodology and Abbreviations
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- Methodology
- Fan chart forecast
- Abbreviations
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