Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- On-premise alcohol consumption falls
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- Figure 1: Changes in AFH drinking, by select demographics, January 2018
- Consumers prefer drinking at home
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- Figure 2: AFH drinking attitudes, January 2018
- Younger consumers enjoy the personal, controlled experience of drinking at home
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- Figure 3: Reasons for drinking AH instead of AFH, by generation, January 2018
- The opportunities
- Exploration is driving increased consumption among some consumers
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- Figure 4: Reasons for drinking AFH more often, January 2018
- Consumers choose new drinks based on alcohol type and flavor
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- Figure 5: AFH new drink trial motivators, January 2018
- Young consumers are interested in new drinks and exciting flavors
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- Figure 6: AFH drink interest, by generation, January 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- iGens: pragmatic, activists, and in control
- Premium drinks offset falling volume
- Consumers are price sensitive despite strong economy
Market Size and Forecast
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- Projected YOY on-premise sales growth
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart of on-premise alcohol sales, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol sales, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- Consumers are drinking less on-premise
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- Figure 9: Total on-premise alcohol consumption, liters per capita, 2010-20
- Beer sales grow but segments struggle with different issues
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- Figure 10: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of beer, at current prices, 2012-22
- Producers rise a glass to wine’s strong growth
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- Figure 11: Total US on and off-premise sales and fan chart forecast of wine, at current prices, 2011-21
- Vodka maintains its top status, but whiskey is growing fast
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- Figure 12: Distribution of spirit sales by volume, by segment, 2017 (estimate)
- Figure 13: Distribution of spirit sales by volume, by segment, 2017 (estimate)
- White spirits
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- Figure 14: US volume sales and forecast of white spirits, by segment, 2012-22
- Dark spirits
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- Figure 15: US volume sales of dark spirits, by segment 2012-22
- Figure 16: US volume sales of whiskey/whisky, by type, 2012-17
- RTD market benefits from innovation
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- Figure 17: US volume sales of flavored malt beverages, spirit-based prepared cocktails, and wine coolers, 2012-22
Market Factors
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- Many Americans are financially unstable despite strong economy
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- Figure 18: Financial stability and flexibility, by status level, November 2017
- Will self-driving cars be the biggest boon to the on-premise market?
- Alcohol avoiding/substitution topics are trending on social media
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- Figure 19: Social media mentions of “Whole 30,” 2013-17
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- Figure 20: Social media mentions of “Dry January,” 2013-18
- Figure 21: Social media mentions of “mocktails,” 2013-17
Market Factor Deep Dive: iGens
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- The kids are alright: meet the sober generation
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- Figure 22: Distribution of population aged 21+, 2018-23
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- It’s all about the experience
- Beer market slows down and cider takes a dip
- Take on-premise off-premise via delivery
What’s Working?
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- Pop culture pubs
- Alco-tourism appeals to the experiential drinker
- Growth in ride-sharing sharing services benefits bars/restaurants
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- Figure 23: Mobility services used, April 2016-November 2017
- Blurred beverages expose consumers to new categories
What’s Struggling?
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- Major casual dining chains face declining sales
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- Figure 24: Changes in casual dining chain visitation, by select demos, November 2017
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- Figure 25: Applebee’s email, “The DOLLARMAMA is still just…well, a dollar,” February 16, 2018
- Figure 26: Applebee’s email, “ABSOLUT Vodka + Lemonade = $2,” March 3, 2018
- Mass market beer is in trouble…and craft beer hits a rough patch
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- Figure 27: Total US volume sales of beer, by segment, 2012-20
- Cider can’t sustain its growth
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- Figure 28: US volume sales of hard cider, 2012-16 (est)
- “Fewer but better trend” is detrimental for value spirit brands
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- Figure 29: Percent change in 9-liter cases sold, 2012-17
What’s Next?
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- Bringing the bar to you
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- Figure 30: TGI Friday’s alcohol delivery
- Unfiltered and funky, natural wine enters the spotlight
- Something’s in the water
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- Figure 31: Cocktails with waters as an ingredient
- Zero waste hits mainstream
- Drink locally, think globally
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- Figure 32: Internationally influenced cocktail examples
Mintel Menu Insights Analysis
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- Wine
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- Figure 33: Change in incidence of wine types, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
- Sparkling wine
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- Figure 34: Change in incidence of sparkling wines, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
- Red wine
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- Figure 35: Change in incidence of top 15 red wines, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
- White wine
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- Figure 36: Change in incidence of top 15 white wines, Q4 2015 – Q4 2017
- Dessert/fortified wine
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- Figure 37: Change in incidence of top 10 dessert/fortified wines, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
- Beer
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- Figure 38: Average number of beers menued by restaurant segment, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
- Figure 39: Average price of beer menued by restaurant segment, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
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- Figure 40: Growth of non-fruit beer flavors, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
- Cocktails
- Cocktail alcohol types
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- Figure 41: Change in incidence of alcohol types used in cocktails, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
- Cocktail spirit trends
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- Figure 42: Change in incidence of spirits used in cocktails, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
- Figure 43: Distribution of spirits used in cocktails, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
- Figure 44: Change in incidence of spirit brands used in cocktails, top 25 brands Q4 2015-Q4 2017
- Cocktail ingredient claims
- Cocktail ingredient trends: non-alcoholic beverages
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- Figure 45: Change in incidence of non-alcoholic beverages used in cocktails, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
- Cocktail ingredient trends: herbs/seasonings
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- Figure 46: Change in incidence of herbs and seasonings used in cocktails, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
- Figure 47: Unique salts used in cocktails
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Reported alcohol consumption across venues is down
- New drinks can spur consumption
- Consumers of all ages prefer drinking AH
- Drinking AH is relaxing, cheap, and more personal than drinking AFH
Alcoholic Beverage Consumption and Occasions: AH vs AFH
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- Most drinks are consumed AH
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- Figure 48: Alcoholic beverage consumption, AH vs AFH, January 2018
- Alcoholic beverage consumption by demographics
- Most occasions also occur within the home
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- Figure 49: Drinking occasions, AH vs AFH, January 2018
AFH Drink Interest
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- Figure 50: AFH drink interest, January 2018
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- Figure 51: AFH drink interest, by Millennial groups, January 2018
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- Figure 52: Two Hats Online Ad, “’Meh’ No More”
- TURF analysis: AFH drink interest
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- Figure 53: TURF analysis AFH drink interest, January 2018
- Unique drinks attract multicultural consumers
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- Figure 54: AFH drink interest, by race/ethnicity, January 2018
- Targeting drink-type consumers
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- Figure 55: AFH drink interest, top 5 drinks, by drink-type drinkers, indexed against all consumers, January 2017
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- Figure 56: AFH drink interest, top 5 drinks by drink-type drinkers, indexed against all consumers, January 2017
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Changes in AFH Drinking
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- Slight net decrease in AFH drinking
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- Figure 57: Changes in AFH drinking, January 2018
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- Figure 58: Changes in AFH drinking, by select demographics, January 2018
- FMB drinkers report greatest increase in consumption
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- Figure 59: Changes in AFH drinking, by drink-type drinkers, January 2018
Reasons for Drinking AFH More
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- Variety drives increased consumption
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- Figure 60: Reasons for drinking AFH more often, January 2018
Reasons for Drinking AFH Less
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- Consumers are reducing their alcohol consumption or drinking AH
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- Figure 61: Reasons for drinking AFH less often, January 2018
Changes in Venue Visitation
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- Traditional bars see greatest visitation drop
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- Figure 62: Changes in venue visitation, January 2018
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- Figure 63: Changes in venue visitation, rebased among visitors, January 2018
- Venue switching deep dive: nightclubs and casual dining chains
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- Figure 64: Nightclub consumers: venue switching behaviors, rebased among visitors, January 2018
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- Figure 65: Casual dining chain consumers: venue switching behaviors, rebased among visitors, January 2018
- Visitation changes dependent on income
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- Figure 66: Changes in venue visitation, rebased among visitors, by age and HH income, January 2018
New Drink Trial Motivators
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- Consumers most open to drink types they already enjoy
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- Figure 67: AFH new drink trial motivators, January 2018
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- Figure 68: AFH new drink trial motivators, by area, any rank, January 2018
- Men are brand-conscious purchasers
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- Figure 69: AFH new drink trial motivators, by gender and age, any rank, January 2018
- Drink-type consumers respond to different motivators
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- Figure 70: AFH new drink trial motivators, by beer-type drinkers, any rank, January 2018
- Drink specials motivate those drinking AFH less
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- Figure 71: AFH new drink trial motivators, by changes in AFH alcohol consumption, any rank, January 2018
AFH Drinking Attitudes
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- Majority of consumers prefer drinking at home
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- Figure 72: AFH drinking attitudes, January 2018
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- Figure 73: AFH drinking attitudes, by changes in AFH alcohol consumption, January 2018
- Delivery appeals to the “hometainment” generation
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- Figure 74: AFH drinking attitudes, by age, January 2018
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- Figure 75: AFH drinking attitudes, by age and gender, January 2018
- Multicultural consumers often try before they buy
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- Figure 76: AFH drinking attitudes, by race/ethnicity, January 2018
- Opportunity for FMB brands on-premise
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- Figure 77: AFH drinking attitudes, I try new drinks at bars before buying from stores, by drink-type drinkers, January 2018
Reasons for Drinking AH
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- Home comforts and cheap drinks drive AH alcohol consumption
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- Figure 78: Reasons for drinking AH instead of AFH, by those who prefer drinking AH, January 2018
- Young consumers want control, can’t be bothered to go out
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- Figure 79: Reasons for drinking AH instead of AFH, by generation, January 2018
- Bars/restaurants losing price-conscious consumers
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- Figure 80: Reasons for drinking AH instead of AFH, by changes in AFH alcohol consumption, January 2018
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Consumption data: Mintel Market Sizes
- Purchase Intelligence
- Mintel Menu Insights
- ePerformance
- Social media methodology
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 81: Total US sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- TURF methodology
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