Table of Contents
Overview
-
- What you need to know
- Issues covered in this Report
- Definitions
Executive Summary
-
- The market
-
- Figure 1: Value of outstanding mortgage debt, IoI, RoI and NI, 2013-18
- Forecast
-
- Figure 2: Index of outstanding mortgage debt, actual, estimated, forecast and projected, RoI and NI, 2013-23
- Market factors
- Both Irish economies on sound footing, continuing to grow
- Property prices recovering steadily, alongside growth in transactions
- Mortgage interest rates extremely high in RoI, lower in NI
- Companies and brands
- The consumer
- Mortgages on main home held by 34% in NI and 30% in RoI
-
- Figure 3: Mortgage ownership, NI and RoI, January 2018
- Fixed-rate repayment (NI), variable-rate repayment (RoI) most popular
-
- Figure 4: Type of mortgage currently held, RoI and NI, January 2018
- Most consumers not thinking about applying for a mortgage soon
-
- Figure 5: Whether consumers are considering applying for a mortgage (ie for a first home, new home or buy-to-let purchase) or a remortgage for current home within the next 12 months, RoI and NI, January 2018
- Most consumers soliciting professional advice when taking mortgage
-
- Figure 6: Main source of advice used when last arranged mortgage/remortgage on main property, RoI and NI, January 2018
- High level of uncertainty and confusion around mortgages and lenders
-
- Figure 7: Agreement with statements relating to mortgages and mortgage providers, RoI and NI, January 2018
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
-
- Both Irish economies on sound footing
- Property prices recovering steadily, alongside growth in transactions
- Mortgage interest rates extremely high in RoI, lower in NI
Market Size and Forecast
-
- Value of outstanding mortgages in Ireland to top €100 billion in 2018
-
- Figure 8: Value of outstanding mortgage debt, actual, estimated, forecast and projected, IoI, RoI and NI, 2013-23
- Modest growth expected in both markets between 2018 and 2023
-
- Figure 9: Index of outstanding mortgage debt, actual, estimated, forecast and projected, RoI and NI, 2013-23
- FTB and remortgage activity in NI at highest level in decade
-
- Figure 10: Total number of loans advanced to first-time buyers, home movers and remortgages, NI, 2010-17
- Steady growth in value of new mortgages of all types in NI
-
- Figure 11: Value of new lending to first-time buyers, home movers and remortgagers, £ millions, NI, Q4 2015-Q4 2017
- Big year-on-year increase in mortgage drawdowns in 2017 in RoI
-
- Figure 12: Total number of mortgage drawdowns, by mortgage type, RoI, 2015-17
-
- Figure 13: Total number of mortgage drawdowns, 000s, RoI, 2006-17
- Value of mortgage drawdowns growing year on year, but down hugely on peak
-
- Figure 14: Total value of mortgage drawdowns, € billions, RoI, 2006-17
Market Drivers
-
- RoI economy on track to grow at solid pace during 2018 and into 2019
-
- Figure 15: Annual GDP growth, actual and forecast, RoI, 2016-19
- NI economy likely to achieve only slight growth over next year
-
- Figure 16: Economic growth, actual and forecast, UK and NI, 2017 and 2018
- Steady recovery in NI property prices since low of 2013
-
- Figure 17: House price index, NI, 2005-17
- Figure 18: Standardised residential prices, £ millions, NI, 2005-17
- RoI property prices recovering strongly, but still down 23% on peak
-
- Figure 19: Residential property price index, nationwide and Dublin, RoI, 2005-17
- Volume of property transactions recovering, but far below boom levels
-
- Figure 20: Residential property sales, NI, 2005-17
- Figure 21: Residential property transactions, volume, RoI, 2010-17
- RoI mortgage holders paying highest interest rates in eurozone
-
- Figure 22: Retail interest rates on loans for house purchase with original maturity date, RoI, 2008-17
- Mortgage interest rates in UK (including NI) significantly lower than in RoI
-
- Figure 23: Effective interest rates on new mortgages, UK (incl. NI), January 2016-18
- More than a quarter could comfortably absorb increased repayments
-
- Figure 24: How consumers rate their current financial situation, NI and RoI, January 2018
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
-
- Central Bank of Ireland tweaks mortgage lending rules for 2018
- Bank of England raises base rate to 0.5%
- Industry-wide tracker mortgage fallout continues to affect some key players in the Irish market
- Nationwide warns UK housing market, including NI, of signs of slowing down in 2018
- Permanent TSB offloads €4 billion of non-performing loans
Companies and Brands
-
- Allied Irish Bank
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- Bank of Ireland
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- Danske Bank
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- HSBC
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- KBC Ireland
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- Nationwide
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- Permanent TSB
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- Santander
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- Ulster Bank
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
- Halifax
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Progressive Building Society
- Key facts
- Product portfolio
- Recent developments
Who’s Innovating?
-
- Digital mortgage innovation
- Peer-to-peer mortgage platforms
- Rental payments could support mortgage applications
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
-
- Mortgages on main home held by 34% in NI and 30% in RoI
- Fixed-rate repayment (NI), variable-rate repayment (RoI) most popular
- Most consumers not thinking about applying for a mortgage soon
- Most consumers soliciting professional advice when taking out mortgage
- High level of uncertainty and confusion around mortgages and lenders
Ownership of Mortgages
-
- Around one in three Irish consumers have an outstanding mortgage
-
- Figure 25: Mortgage ownership, NI and RoI, January 2018
-
- Figure 26: Mortgage ownership, NI and RoI, 2014-18
- Mortgage ownership strongly linked to marital status
-
- Figure 27: Mortgage ownership, by marital status, NI and RoI, January 2018
- Mortgage ownership peaks among consumers aged 35-54
-
- Figure 28: Mortgage ownership, by age, NI and RoI, January 2018
- Mortgage ownership highest among consumers in full-time employment
-
- Figure 29: Mortgage ownership, by employment status, NI and RoI, January 2018
- ABC1s and high earners have easiest access to mortgage loans
-
- Figure 30: Mortgage ownership, by social class, NI and RoI, January 2018
- Figure 31: Mortgage ownership, by gross annual household income, NI and RoI, January 2018
Type of Mortgage Owned
-
- Fixed-rate repayment leads in NI, variable-rate repayment in RoI
-
- Figure 32: Type of mortgage currently held, RoI and NI, January 2018
- Most in NI opt for fixed rate, most in RoI opt for variable/tracker
-
- Figure 33: Type of mortgage currently held – Fixed rate or variable/tracker rate, RoI and NI, January 2018
- Almost four in 10 mortgage holders on interest-only arrangements
-
- Figure 34: Type of mortgage currently held – Interest-only or repayment, RoI and NI, January 2018
Future Intentions
-
- Majority of Irish consumers do not intend to apply for a mortgage
-
- Figure 35: Whether consumers are considering applying for a mortgage (i.e. for a first home, new home or buy-to-let purchase) or a remortgage for current home within the next 12 months, RoI and NI, January 2018
- Tendency not to be considering mortgage application rises with age
-
- Figure 36: Consumers who are not considering applying for a mortgage (ie for a first home, new home or buy-to-let purchase) or a remortgage for current home within the next 12 months, by gender and age, RoI and NI, January 2018
- Low earners most inclined to not be considering mortgage application
-
- Figure 37: Consumers who are not considering applying for a mortgage (ie for a first home, new home or buy-to-let purchase) or a remortgage for current home within the next 12 months, by gross annual household income, RoI and NI, January 2018
- Figure 38: Consumers who are not considering applying for a mortgage (ie for a first home, new home or buy-to-let purchase) or a remortgage for current home within the next 12 months, by social class, RoI and NI, January 2018
- Class and income major factors in likelihood to apply for FTB mortgage in RoI
-
- Figure 39: Considering applying for a mortgage for a first home within the next 12 months, by social class and gross annual household income, RoI, January 2018
Sources of Advice
-
- Consumers take professional advice when arranging mortgages
-
- Figure 40: Main source of advice used when last arranged mortgage/remortgage on main property, RoI and NI, January 2018
- Almost half of all consumers took advice from mortgage lender
- Sizeable minorities opting for specialist brokers and advisers
- Online channels remain peripheral for mortgage advice
Attitudes towards Mortgages
-
- Consumers uncertain and ambivalent about mortgages and advisers
-
- Figure 41: Agreement with statements relating to mortgages and mortgage providers, RoI and NI, January 2018
- Consumers unconvinced about whether paying for advice is worthwhile
-
- Figure 42: Agreement with statements relating to mortgage advisers and mortgage advice, RoI and NI, January 2018
- Confidence in property market far higher among RoI consumers
-
- Figure 43: Agreement with statements relating to current climate for mortgages and property, RoI and NI, January 2018
- Concern around lack of affordability and vulnerability to rates increasing
-
- Figure 44: Agreement with statements relating to mortgages and affordability, RoI and NI, January 2018
- Consumers sceptical about gimmicks, but see switching as hassle
-
- Figure 45: Agreement with statements relating to switching, RoI and NI, January 2018
- Doubts as to whether lenders giving best available terms
-
- Figure 46: Agreement with statement, 'I trust that my bank/building society has me on the best mortgage deal', RoI and NI, January 2018
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
-
- Definition
- Data sources
- Abbreviations
Back to top