Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Shrinking household size affecting one of the category’s key demographics: families
- Weak category penetration and frequency
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- Figure 1: Usage, November 2017
- Even users are using mixes less than a year ago
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- Figure 2: Change in usage, November 2017
- Familiarity proves a notable influence
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- Figure 3: Purchase influence, November 2017
- The opportunities
- Leveraging interest in from-scratch baking
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- Figure 4: Reasons for not using, November 2017
- Mix users cite flavor and quality behind their choice
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- Figure 5: Important attributes, November 2017
- Leveraging the familiar
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Baking/dessert mix sales struggle
- Baking supplies hold greatest market share
- Competition leverages greater degrees of convenience and ease
- Traditional category user base shrinking
Market Size and Forecast
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- Category braced for further declines
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- Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- Baking supplies command largest market share
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- Figure 8: Sales of baking and dessert mixes, by segment, 2017
- Bread/cookie mix sales fall steadily
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of bread and cookie mixes, at current prices, 2012-22
- Cake mix sales plummet, though losses will slow
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of cake and pastry mixes, at current prices, 2012-22
- Flat pancake mix sales should rebound
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of pancake/French toast/waffle mixes, at current prices, 2012-22
- Falling frosting sales
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of frosting, at current prices, 2012-22
- Baking supply sales steady, but stagnant
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking supplies, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Perspective
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- In-store bakeries to see sales increases
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- Figure 14: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakery products, in millions, at current prices, 2012-22
- Focus on health, particularly among Millennials
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- Figure 15: Attitudes toward food, by generation, April 2017
Market Factors
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- Household sizes slowly shrinking
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- Figure 16: US households, by percentage of total US households, 1960-2017
- Rising disposable income could lead to more fresh-baked interest
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- Figure 17: Disposable Personal Income change from previous period, January 2007-November 2017
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Some successes amid an overall sales slump
- Price deterring some from frosting launches
- Leveraging familiar
Company and Brand Sales of Baking and Dessert Mixes
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- Sales slump hitting category’s major brands
- Sales of baking and desserts mixes by company
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- Figure 18: Multi-outlet sales of baking and dessert mixes, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
What’s Working?
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- Brownies’ biggest success shows the benefit of leveraging decadence
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- Figure 19: Duncan Hines Decadent line, 2017
- Figure 20: Consumer attribute ratings for the Duncan Hines Decadent line, 2017
What’s Struggling?
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- Icing/frosting sales falter
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- Figure 21: Notable frosting launches, 2017
What’s Next?
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- Leveraging familiarity
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Mix users skew younger
- More consumers do not use mixes at all than are using them more than a year ago
- Flavor remains paramount
- Nonusers not avoiding baked goods
- Potential in leveraging customizability
- Consumers embrace the familiar in baking mixes
- Younger consumers like baking
- Clean-up and lack of equipment may hinder usage
- Users tend to use multiple types of mixes
Usages of Baking and Dessert Mixes
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- Brownie, cake mixes most used, but almost a third of consumers are not using baking mixes
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- Figure 22: Usage, November 2017
- Younger consumers much more likely to use mixes
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- Figure 23: Usage, by age, November 2017
- Presence and number of children correlate strongly with mix use
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- Figure 24: Usage, by number of children in household, November 2017
- Hispanic Millennials much more likely to turn to mixes
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- Figure 25: Usage of dessert mixes, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
Change in Usage
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- Sixth of consumers baking from scratch more often than a year ago
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- Figure 26: Change in usage, November 2017
- Women notably more likely than men to be using mixes less often
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- Figure 27: Change in usage, by gender, November 2017
- Younger consumers more likely to be using mixes more
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- Figure 28: Change in usage, by gender, November 2017
- Fifth of non-parents not using mixes
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- Figure 29: Change in usage, by parental status, November 2017
- A quarter of Hispanic Millennials using mixes less often or not at all
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- Figure 30: Change in usage, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
- Pie, cupcake mix users turning to store-bought mixes more often
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- Figure 31: Change in usage, by usage, November 2017
Important Attributes
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- Flavor resonates strongly among consumers
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- Figure 32: Important attributes, November 2017
- Premium resonates more with older consumers; price more with younger demographics
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- Figure 33: Important attributes, by age, November 2017
- Natural ingredient claims resonate more with parents of younger children
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- Figure 34: Important attributes, by presence and age of children, November 2017
- Premium quality factors strongly among higher-income groups
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- Figure 35: Important attributes, by household income, November 2017
- Hispanic consumers much more likely to seek natural ingredient claims
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- Figure 36: Important health-related attributes, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
- Premium quality, brand impact cupcake mix choice
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- Figure 37: Important attributes, by usage, November 2017
- Top five attributes form a nearly universally popular result
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- Figure 38: TURF analysis – Important attributes, November 2017
Reasons for Not Using Mixes
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- Nonusers more likely to bake from scratch or opt for ready-to-eat baked goods
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- Figure 39: Reasons for not using, November 2017
- Women, particularly married women, more likely to indicate they bake from scratch rather than use mixes
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- Figure 40: Reasons for not using, by gender and marital status, November 2017
Reasons for Use
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- Mixes could leverage ease of use and customizability
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- Figure 41: Reasons for use, November 2017
- Ease of use of notable interest to women
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- Figure 42: Reasons for use, by gender, November 2017
- Hispanic consumers notably more likely to share baked goods
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- Figure 43: Reasons for use of store-bought baking mixes, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
Purchase Influence
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- Familiarity proves a notable influence
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- Figure 44: Purchase influence, November 2017
- Package, equipment concerns resonate among younger consumers
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- Figure 45: Purchase influence, by age, November 2017
- Familiarity less compelling to Hispanic consumers
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- Figure 46: Purchase influence, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
- Trust influences most mix types
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- Figure 47: Purchase influence, by usage, November 2017
- Familiar options’ opportunity for adding mix-ins
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- Figure 48: Purchase influence, by important attributes, November 2017
Baking Opinions
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- Consumers tend to enjoy baking
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- Figure 49: Baking opinions, November 2017
- Women, parents much more likely to enjoy baking
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- Figure 50: Baking opinions, by gender, November 2017
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- Figure 51: Baking opinions, by presence and number of children, November 2017
- Enjoyment of baking not necessarily associated with a preference for from-scratch baking
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- Figure 52: Baking opinions, by age, November 2017
- Hispanic Millennials much more likely to enjoy baking, to seek recognizable ingredients
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- Figure 53: Baking opinions, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
Negative Baking Opinions
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- Clean-up a deterrent to baking from scratch
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- Figure 54: Negative baking opinions, November 2017
- Clean-up, lack of equipment concerns for younger consumers
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- Figure 55: Negative baking opinions, by age, November 2017
- Clean-up concerns for Hispanic Millennials
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- Figure 56: Negative baking opinions, by Hispanic origin, November 2017
Repertoire Analysis
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- Half of consumers use multiple types of baking mixes
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- Figure 57: Repertoire of usage frequency, November 2017
- Younger consumers more likely to use multiple types of mixes
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- Figure 58: Repertoire of usage frequency, by age, parental status, and number of children in household, November 2017
- Mix loyalists more likely to seek quality, and brand; gluten-free users turn to many types of mixes
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- Figure 59: Important attributes, by repertoire of usage frequency, November 2017
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations
- Abbreviations
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 60: Total US sales and forecast of baking and dessert mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 61: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
- Figure 62: Total US retail sales and forecast of bread and cookie mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 63: Total US retail sales and forecast of cake and pastry mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 64: Total US retail sales and forecast of pancake/french toast/waffle mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 65: Total US retail sales and forecast of frosting, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 66: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking supplies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 67: Total US retail sales and forecast of other baking mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 68: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2012-17
- Figure 69: Total US retail sales of baking and dessert mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
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- Figure 70: US supermarket sales of baking and dessert mixes, at current prices, 2012-17
- Figure 71: US sales of baking and dessert mixes through other retail channels, at current prices, 2012-17
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 72: Multi-outlet sales of brownie/cookie/cookie bar/muffin/bread mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 73: Multi-outlet sales of cake/cupcake/coffee cake/gingerbread/pastry mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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- Figure 74: Multi-outlet sales of pancake/french toast/waffle mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 75: Multi-outlet sales of frosting/frosting mixes/edible decorations, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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- Figure 76: Multi-outlet sales of baking supplies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 77: Multi-outlet sales of other baking mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 78: Food opinions, by gender, Summer 2017
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- Figure 79: Food opinions, by age, Summer 2017
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- Figure 80: Food opinions, by race, Summer 2017
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- Figure 81: Food opinions, by Hispanic origin, Summer 2017
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- Figure 82: Food opinions, by household income, Summer 2017
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- Figure 83: Food opinions, by education, Summer 2017
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- Figure 84: Food opinions, by number of people in household, Summer 2017
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- Figure 85: Food opinions, by number of children in household, Summer 2017
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- Figure 86: Food opinions, by region, Summer 2017
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- Figure 87: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by gender, Summer 2017
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- Figure 88: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by age, Summer 2017
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- Figure 89: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by race, Summer 2017
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- Figure 90: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by Hispanic origin, Summer 2017
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- Figure 91: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by household income, Summer 2017
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- Figure 92: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by education, Summer 2017
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- Figure 93: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by number of people in household, Summer 2017
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- Figure 94: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by number of children in household, Summer 2017
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- Figure 95: Thoughts about indulgent foods, by region, Summer 2017
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Appendix – TURF Analysis – Baking and Dessert Mixes – February 2018
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- Methodology
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- Figure 96: Table – TURF analysis – Important attributes, November 2017
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