Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- Overview
- The issues
- Nearly half of car owners don’t always adhere to recommended oil change intervals
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- Figure 1: Oil change behavior, October 2017
- Synthetic oils increasing mileage intervals between oil changes
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- Figure 2: Recommended mileage between oil changes for 2000 and 2017 Toyota Camrys and Ford F150s
- Oil change market extremely fragmented and competitive
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- Figure 3: Oil change location, October 2017
- The opportunities
- Americans are driving more than ever
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- Figure 4: Vehicle miles traveled, 2000-16
- Only two in 10 car owners know how to change their own oil
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- Figure 5: Oil change behavior, by gender, October 2017
- Car owners tend to use the same location for oil changes
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- Figure 6: Oil change behavior, by age, October 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Oil change retail market forecasted for growth
- Americans driving more than ever
- Average age of vehicles on the road over 11 years old
- Low fuel prices keep Americans driving
Market Size and Forecast
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- Oil change retail market forecasted for growth through 2022
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of retail oil changes, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 8: Total US revenues and forecast of automotive oil change and lubrication shops, at current prices, 2012-22
Market Perspective
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- Electric vehicle adoption threatens oil change retail segment
Market Factors
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- Vehicle miles travelled continues to increase
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- Figure 9: Vehicle miles travelled, 2000-16
- Low unemployment and high consumer confidence will deter DIY oil changes
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- Figure 10: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2000-November 2017
- New vehicle sales today mean service revenues for dealers tomorrow
- Older vehicles likely to need additional oil changes
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- Figure 11: Average age of light vehicles in the US, 1995-2016
- Synthetic oils increasing mileage intervals between oil changes
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- Figure 12: Recommended mileage between oil changes for 2000 and 2017 Toyota Camrys and Ford F150s
- Gas prices remain stable for the time being
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- Figure 13: US gasoline and diesel retail prices, January 2007-December 2017
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Dealerships hold majority of retail oil change segment
- Tire-focused retailers losing market share
- Nearly a quarter of shoppers used an alternative source for an oil change
- Electric vehicle adoption threatens entire oil change market
Company and Brand Percentage of Retail Oil Change
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- Dealerships, Jiffy Lube, and Walmart lead oil change segment
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- Figure 14: Market share of oil change locations, by consumers who have purchased an oil change in the past 12 months, July 2016-August 2017
What’s Working?
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- Dealerships and Valvoline see largest gains since 2013
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- Figure 15: Oil change locations used in the past 12 months, by consumers who have purchased an oil change, 2013-17
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- Figure 16: Temecula Nissan direct mail, December 2017
What’s Struggling?
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- Tire retailers losing market share in oil change retail
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- Figure 17: Goodyear acquisition email, March 2017
- Branding plays a minimal role in car owners’ decisions
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- Figure 18: Oil change retail location reasons, October 2017
What’s Next?
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- General Motors “Marketplace” to allow car owners to book oil changes from their dashboard
- Electric vehicle adoption will negatively impact oil change retailers
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Most don’t know how to change their own oil
- Cost and location are main reasons behind location choice
- Most car owners agree they usually go to the same location
- New car buyers more likely to go to the dealership
Auto Maintenance or Repair Services
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- Nearly eight out of 10 get an oil change professionally done
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- Figure 19: Auto maintenance or repair services, October 2017
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- Figure 20: Christian Brothers Automotive, direct mail, October 2017
Vehicle Model Year
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- One third of vehicles serviced are less than five years old
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- Figure 21: Vehicle model year, October 2017
- Figure 22: Vehicle model year, October 2017
Purchase Type
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- Nearly 60% of vehicles serviced were purchased new
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- Figure 23: Purchase type, October 2017
- Purchase type correlated with age and income
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- Figure 24: Purchase type, by age and income, October 2017
Oil Change Location
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- 40% of car owners took their car to the dealership for an oil change
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- Figure 25: Oil change location, October 2017
- Used car buyers more likely to go independent or alternative retailer for oil changes
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- Figure 26: Oil change location, by purchase type, October 2017
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- Figure 27: Keenan Honda certified pre-owned sales event, acquisition email, September 2017
- Walmart and smaller firms see success among rural residents
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- Figure 28: Oil change location, by area, October 2017
Location Reasons
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- Location the most important when it comes to oil changes
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- Figure 29: Oil change retail location reasons, October 2017
- TURF analysis for new car buyers
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- Figure 30: TURF analysis – Oil change location reasons, October 2017
- TURF analysis for used car buyers
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- Figure 31: TURF analysis – Oil change location reasons, October 2017
- Jiffy Lube winning on location, Walmart winning on cost, dealerships winning on trust and quality
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- Figure 32: Location reasons, by oil change location, October 2017
Oil Change Behavior
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- Majority of car owners don’t know how to change their own oil
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- Figure 33: Oil change behavior, October 2017
- Men more likely than women to know how to change the oil and have a preferred brand
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- Figure 34: Oil change behavior, by gender, October 2017
- Younger shoppers look at reviews online, but aren’t scheduling online
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- Figure 35: Oil change behavior, by age, October 2017
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- Figure 36: Jiffy Lube, direct email, November 2017
- Parents less patient when it comes to oil changes
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- Figure 37: Oil change behavior, by parental status, October 2017
- Used car buyers less likely to adhere to recommended intervals
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- Figure 38: Oil change behavior, by purchase type, October 2017
Facility Amenities
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- WiFi is a must have for the waiting room
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- Figure 39: Facility amenities, October 2017
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
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