Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Stable prices lead to volume growth over 2015-16
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, by value, 2012-22
- First volume decline for chilled fish in five years
- A slow but steady volume decline forecast for chilled
- Volume sales of frozen fish hold steady
- Volume sales of ambient fish tumble 6% year on year
- Market factors
- 2017 sees a surge in the price of fish
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- Figure 2: Consumer price indices – Total food, meat and fish, January 2012-October 2017
- The squeeze on real incomes is a threat
- Industry continues focus on sustainability
- Companies and brands
- Own-label steals share within the chilled fish segment
- A reversal in fortunes for Birds Eye
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- Figure 3: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen seafood market, by value, 2016/17*
- Only own-label escapes volume losses in tinned fish/shellfish
- 2017 is a big year for NPD, driven by private label
- A major premiumisation drive within frozen
- Sainsbury’s encourages shoppers to try lesser-known species
- Adspend hits a five-year high in 2017
- The consumer
- Fish and shellfish are eaten by 85% of adults
- Spending power and presence of children influence usage
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- Figure 4: Usage frequency of fish and shellfish, September 2017
- A preference for a tried and tested seafood
- Ease of cooking and lower prices are key selling points
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- Figure 5: Purchase habits of fish and shellfish, September 2017
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- Figure 6: Factors that would encourage trial of new types of fish/shellfish, September 2017
- Figure 7: Factors influencing choice of fish/shellfish, September 2017
- Concerns over canned fish processing
- Consumers expect sustainability, with ratings a popular concept
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- Figure 8: Behaviours relating to fish and shellfish, September 2017
- Squeezed incomes will affect fish purchasing
- Frozen can benefit from an income squeeze
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- Figure 9: Expected reactions to an income squeeze for fish and shellfish purchasing, September 2017
- Fish can look to “flexitarian” NPD too
- Canned fish can benefit more from scratch cooking
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- Figure 10: Attitudes towards fish and shellfish, September 2017
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- With sustainability an expectation, supporting British fisheries can provide a strong ethical USP
- The facts
- The implications
- Taking cues from processed meat, fish should look to “flexitarian” NPD
- The facts
- The implications
- A need to bust the myths around canned fish processing
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Stable prices lead to volume growth over 2015-16
- A hike in prices hit volume sales in 2017
- First volume decline for chilled fish in five years
- A slow but steady volume decline forecast for chilled
- Volume sales of frozen fish hold steady
- Volume sales of ambient fish tumble 6% year on year
- 2017 sees a surge in the price of fish
- The squeeze on real incomes is a threat
- Industry continues focus on sustainability
Market Size and Forecast
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- A hike in prices hit volume sales in 2017
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- Figure 11: UK retail value and volume sales of fish and shellfish, 2012-22
- The future
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- Figure 12: Forecast of UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, by value, 2012-22
- Figure 13: Forecast of UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, by volume, 2012-22
- Income squeeze will hamper growth
- Health credentials keep fish on the menu
- Trading down set to see affordable segments gains share
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- First volume decline for fresh fish in five years
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- Figure 14: UK retail value and volume sales of chilled fish and shellfish, 2012-22
- Figure 15: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, by value, 2012-22
- Figure 16: Forecast of UK retail sales of chilled fish and shellfish, by volume, 2012-22
- Volume sales of frozen fish hold steady
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- Figure 17: UK retail value and volume sales of frozen fish and shellfish, 2012-22
- Figure 18: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, by value, 2012-22
- Figure 19: Forecast of UK retail sales of frozen fish and shellfish, by volume, 2012-22
- Volume sales of ambient fish tumble 6% year on year
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- Figure 20: UK retail value and volume sales of ambient fish and shellfish, 2012-22
- Figure 21: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, by value, 2012-22
- Figure 22: Forecast of UK retail sales of ambient fish and shellfish, by volume, 2012-22
Market Drivers
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- 2017 sees a surge in the price of fish
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- Figure 23: Consumer price indices – Total food, meat and fish, January 2012-October 2017
- The squeeze on real incomes is a threat
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- Figure 24: CPI inflation vs percentage change in average weekly earnings, regular pay (excluding bonuses), January 2012-September 2017
- Trade and fishing policies post-Brexit remain unresolved
- Fish intake continues to fall short of recommendations
- Industry continues to focus on sustainability
- Retailers launch labels and initiatives
- Brands work on responsible tuna sourcing
- North Sea cod certified by MSC
- MSC under fire for allegedly misleading consumers
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Own-label steals share within the chilled fish segment
- A reversal in fortunes for Birds Eye
- Only own-label escapes volume declines in tinned fish/shellfish
- 2017 is a big year for NPD, driven by private label
- A major premiumisation drive within frozen
- Sainsbury’s encourages shoppers to try lesser-known species
- Adspend hits a five-year high in 2017
Market Share
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- Own-label steals share within the chilled fish segment
- A reversal in fortunes for Birds Eye
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- Figure 25: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen seafood market, by value, 2016/17*
- Stable volume sales for Young’s
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- Figure 26: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK frozen seafood market, by value and volume, 2014/15-2016/17
- Figure 27: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK frozen seafood market, by value and volume, 2014/15-2016/17
- Only own-label escapes volume losses in tinned fish/shellfish
- Princes is dealt the biggest blow
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- Figure 28: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK ambient seafood market, by value and volume, 2014/15-2016/17
- Figure 29: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK ambient seafood market, by value and volume, 2014/15-2016/17
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- 2017 is a big year for NPD, driven by private label
- Nisa takes its place in own-label fish/shellfish
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- Figure 30: New product launches in the UK processed fish and shellfish market, by storage type, 2013-17
- A major premiumisation drive within frozen
- Iceland bolsters its premium range of fish and seafood
- Saucy Fish Co makes its debut in the frozen aisle
- More launches for Young’s Gastro range
- Birds Eye expands its Inspirations range
- Relaunch activity from Birds Eye and Young’s
- Birds Eye improves its flagship Fish Finger brand
- Young’s rebrands its breaded fish range
- High levels of NPD activity in flavoured canned fish
- Sainsbury’s new range encourages shoppers to try lesser-known species
- Claims relating to ease of use hit a five-year high in 2017
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Adspend hits a five-year high in 2017
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- Figure 31: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fish and seafood, by segment, 2013-17
- Figure 32: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fish and seafood, by segment, 2013-17
- Saucy Fish Co claims top spot with digital campaign
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- Figure 33: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on fish and seafood, by company (sorted by 2017), 2013-17
- Birds Eye moves away from its masterbrand strategy
- Captain Birdseye returns in a bid to tap consumers’ nostalgia
- Birds Eye ups spend in 2017
- Birds Eye celebrates imperfect parents with #Solidaritea campaign
- Young’s pushes its Gastro brand for ‘date night’
- Iceland highlights the benefits of frozen
- Retailers highlight sourcing in ad campaigns
- Lidl’s mussels advert picks up MSC award
- Waitrose spotlights tuna provenance
- Tesco showcases its gold-trained fishmonger
- Princes launches ‘Love Canned Food’ campaign
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- 85% of adults eat fish or shellfish
- Spending power and presence of children influence usage
- A preference for tried and tested seafood
- Ease of cooking and lower prices are key selling points
- Concerns over canned fish processing
- Consumers expect sustainability, with ratings a popular concept
- Squeezed incomes will affect fish purchasing
- Frozen can benefit from an income squeeze
- Fish can look to “flexitarian” NPD too
- Canned fish can benefit more from scratch cooking
Usage of Fish and Shellfish
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- Fish and shellfish are eaten by 85% of adults
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- Figure 34: Eating of fish and shellfish, September 2017
- Frozen fish is the nation’s favourite
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- Figure 35: Usage frequency of fish and shellfish, September 2017
- Spending power has a big influence on fish eating
- Families are an important demographic for fish
- Shellfish is a rarer menu feature
Choice Factors and Enticements for Fish and Shellfish
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- A preference for tried and tested seafood
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- Figure 36: Purchase habits of fish and shellfish, September 2017
- Ease of cooking is most likely to prompt trial
- Lower prices are a strong draw
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- Figure 37: Factors that would encourage trial of new types of fish/shellfish, September 2017
- The older generation can be won over by support for British fisheries
- Young people want speed
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- Figure 38: Factors influencing choice of fish/shellfish, September 2017
Behaviours Relating to Fish and Shellfish
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- Concerns over canned fish processing
- New campaign aims to improve the image of canned food
- A focus on traditional processes and absence of preservatives should resonate
- Younger cohorts are more concerned than older
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- Figure 39: Behaviours relating to fish and shellfish, September 2017
- Consumers expect sustainability
- Keen interest in sustainability ratings, few have boycotted unsustainable species
- Onus remains on brands to put forward their credentials
- Farmed seafood is a case in point
Expected Reactions to Income Squeeze
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- Squeezed incomes will affect fish purchasing
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- Figure 40: Expected reactions to an income squeeze for fish and shellfish purchasing, September 2017
- Reduced promotional activity could hit volume sales
- Encouraging fish swaps has potential
- Frozen can benefit from an income squeeze
Attitudes towards Fish and Shellfish
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- Fish can look to “flexitarian” NPD too
- 28% of people are reducing meat intake
- Strong interest in added vegetables in fish cakes
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- Figure 41: Attitudes towards fish and shellfish, September 2017
- Canned fish can benefit more from scratch cooking
- The quality of frozen fish is deemed hard to ascertain
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecast methodology
Appendix – Segment Performance
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- Figure 42: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of fish and shellfish, 2017-22
- Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of fish and shellfish, 2017-22
- Figure 44: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of chilled fish and shellfish, 2017-22
- Figure 45: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of chilled fish and shellfish, 2017-22
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- Figure 46: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of frozen fish and shellfish, 2017-22
- Figure 47: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of frozen fish and shellfish, 2017-22
- Figure 48: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of ambient fish and shellfish, 2017-22
- Figure 49: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail volume sales of ambient fish and shellfish, 2017-22
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Appendix – Launch Activity
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- Figure 50: New product launches in the UK processed fish and shellfish market, by company (top 15 in 2017), 2013-17
- Figure 51: New product launches in the UK processed fish and shellfish market, by claim (top 15 in 2017), 2013-17
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