Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- The dairy milk category continues sales declines
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Habitual purchase patterns stall the category
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- Figure 2: Shifts in consumption of any dairy milk, July 2017
- Non-dairy milks continue strong growth
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- Figure 3: Non-dairy milk purchase, July 2017
- Skim/low-fat milks lack appeal to general population
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- Figure 4: Perceptions of whole and skim/low-fat milk, July 2017
- The opportunities
- Less traditional milks see increased purchase
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- Figure 5: Shifts in consumption, July 2017
- 98% of parents purchase dairy milk
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- Figure 6: Dairy milk purchase, by parental status, July 2017
- Natural, nutritional value of milk increase importance
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- Figure 7: Purchase incentives, by dairy milk purchase, July 2017
- Brands matter for milks with added value
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- Figure 8: Attitudes toward milk, by dairy milk type purchased, July 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Dairy milk category continues to struggle
- Whole, flavored milks’ growth can’t stop category loss
- Price volatility, demand strains industry
- Millennials reaching pivotal life stages for dairy milk consumption
Market Size and Forecast
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- Future of dairy milk to maintain a downward trend
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- Figure 9: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of market, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
Market Breakdown
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- Skim/low-fat losing way to whole milk, flavored options
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
- Category loss driven by skim/low-fat milk
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, percent change in sales, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
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- Figure 14: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2012-22
- Lactose-free offerings flourish at natural channel
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- Figure 15: Natural supermarket sales of dairy milk, by lactose free, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 7/19/15 and 7/16/17
- Animal welfare claims grow
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- Figure 16: Natural supermarket sales of dairy milk, by animal welfare label, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 7/19/15 and 7/16/17
- Sales split between supermarket and ‘other’ channels
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- Figure 17: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, market share by channel, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
- Figure 18: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, percent change by channel, at current prices, 2016-17
Market Perspective
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- Interest in non-dairy milk grows
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- Figure 19: Non-dairy milk purchase, July 2017
- FDA approves ultra-filtered milk in cheese production
- Dairy milk fights back against non-dairy alternatives
- Heightened production, low milk prices, and demand strain industry
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- Figure 20: Milk production and average price per gallon by year, 2000-16
- Perimeter of the store gains attention
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- Figure 21: Attitudes toward the perimeter, April 2017
- Organic claims resonate stronger with fresh foods
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- Figure 22: Category preferences, April 2017
Market Factors
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- Lactose intolerance higher among multicultural consumers
- Millennials are parents
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- Figure 23: Households with own children under age 18, by age of householder, 2016
- Loyal older generations shrink
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- Figure 24: Percentage of population by generation, 2012-22
- Consumers experiment with plant-based food and drink
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- Figure 25: Attitudes toward BFY foods, by age and gender, June 2016
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Private label brands dominate sales
- Taste and nutrition win out
- Skim, low-fat milks fail to keep up
- Branding and added nutrition will excite the category
Company and Brand Sales of Dairy Milk
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- Minimal shifts within the category
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- Figure 26: MULO sales of dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 27: MULO sales of dairy milk, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Private label brands dominate skim/low-fat and whole milk segments
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- Figure 28: MULO sales of whole and skim/low-fat milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2017
- fairlife makes its mark in flavored dairy milk segment
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- Figure 29: MULO sales of flavoured milk, by leading companies and brands, percent change, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Whitewave sees minimal growth amid declining shelf-stable sales
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- Figure 30: MULO sales of shelf stable milk, by leading companies and brands, percent change, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
What’s Working?
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- Private Label
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- Figure 31: US number of entries per year of white or flavored dairy milk by branded and private label
- Whole milk
- Flavored milk
- Lactose-free expands beyond the dietary restricted
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- Figure 32: Natural supermarket sales of dairy milk, by lactose free, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks ending 7/19/15 and 7/16/17
What’s Struggling?
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- Skim, low-fat milks
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- Figure 33: Total US retail sales and forecast of dairy milk, skim/low-fat milk segment, at current prices, 2012-22
What’s Next?
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- Value-added dairy milk
- Branded dairy milk
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- 2%, whole milks most popular
- Flavored milks appeal to kids, consumed by adults
- Purchase of dairy milk stalls
- Taste drives dairy milk purchase
- Despite sales growth, lactose-free milks not seen as healthy
- Cereal drives dairy milk consumption, drinking a glass of milk and cooking secondary uses
- Consumers begin to avoid dairy
- Consumers willing to pay extra for milks less commodified
- Skim, low-fat milks trail whole milk in associations that drive purchase
Dairy Milk Purchase
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- 2%, whole milks receive consumer preference
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- Figure 34: Dairy milk purchase, July 2017
- Half of dairy milk consumers purchase non-dairy milk
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- Figure 35: Dairy milk purchase, by non-dairy milk purchase, July 2017
- Non-dairy milk purchase encroaches dairy milk space
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- Figure 36: Dairy and non-dairy milk purchase, by age, July 2017
- Specialty dairy milk purchase driven by parents
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- Figure 37: Dairy milk purchase, by parental status, July 2017
- Black consumers dedicated to 2%, whole milk
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- Figure 38: Dairy milk purchase by race, July 2017
Household Consumption of Dairy Milk
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- Milks lower in fat more for adult consumption
- Flavored milk appeals to adults, too
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- Figure 39: Household consumption, July 2017
- Parents purchase non-dairy for self, dairy for children
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- Figure 40: Household consumption, by dairy and non-dairy milk type, July 2017
Shifts in Purchase
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- Purchase of dairy milk has somewhat stalled
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- Figure 41: Shifts in consumption of any dairy milk, July 2017
- Traditional dairy milks making way for others
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- Figure 42: Shifts in consumption, July 2017
- Dairy milk consumers also increasing non-dairy milk purchase
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- Figure 43: Shifts in consumption of any non-dairy milk, by dairy milk purchase, July 2017
- Life stage determines milk habits
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- Figure 44: Shifts in consumption of any dairy milk, by age, July 2017
Incentives for Purchase
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- Taste drives purchase of milk, dairy and non-dairy
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- Figure 45: Purchase incentives, July 2017
- Consumers of dairy milk hold lower concern of nutritional factors than non-dairy
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- Figure 46: Purchase incentives, by any dairy and non-dairy purchase, July 2017
- Vitamins, natural ingredients, protein drivers of growing dairy milk types
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- Figure 47: Purchase incentives, by dairy milk purchase, July 2017
- Men, fathers swayed by protein content
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- Figure 48: Purchase incentives of dairy or non-dairy milk, by gender and parental status, July 2017
- Hispanic and Asian consumers seek natural milks
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- Figure 49: Purchase incentives of dairy or non-dairy milk, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2017
Health Perceptions
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- Whole milk leads ranking of healthiest milks
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- Figure 50: Health perceptions, July 2017
- Non-dairy milk consumption shifts views of healthfulness away from dairy
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- Figure 51: Health perception, any rank, by any dairy milk purchase and any non-dairy milk purchase, July 2017
- Females see more healthfulness in skim/low-fat, almond milks
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- Figure 52: Health perceptions, any rank, by gender, July 2017
- Younger consumers mixed about healthiest milks, older stay loyal to dairy
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- Figure 53: Health perception, any rank, by generation, July 2017
Usage Occasions
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- Dairy milk still a go-to for cereal, drink, and ingredient
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- Figure 54: Usage occasions, by any dairy and non-dairy purchase, July 2017
- Flavored milk used as a drink, post workout, on-the-go
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- Figure 55: Usage occasions, July 2017
- Youngest consumers driving mealtime consumption
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- Figure 56: Usage occasions – Drink with a meal, part 1, by age, July 2017
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- Figure 57: Usage occasions – Drink with a meal, part 2, by age, July 2017
- Urban consumers use milk for broad range of tasks
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- Figure 58: Usage occasions of any dairy milk, by type of area, July 2017
Attitudes toward Dairy Consumption
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- One in five adults is consuming less dairy to stay healthy
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- Figure 59: Attitudes toward dairy, July 2017
- Non-dairy milk consumers limit overall dairy for health reasons
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- Figure 60: Attitudes toward dairy, by any dairy and any non-dairy purchase, July 2017
- Low-fat, organic milk consumers more likely to limit dairy consumption
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- Figure 61: Attitudes toward dairy, by dairy milk purchase, July 2017
- Young consumers starting to look outside of dairy for health benefits
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- Figure 62: Attitudes toward dairy, by generation, July 2017
Attitudes toward Brands
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- Brands may catch the eye, but for the right price
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- Figure 63: Attitudes toward milk, July 2017
- Brands matter less to dairy consumers than non-dairy
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- Figure 64: Attitudes toward milk, by any dairy or non-dairy milk purchase, July 2017
- Less traditional milks ignite more brand loyalty
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- Figure 65: Attitudes toward milk, by dairy milk type purchased, July 2017
- Brands appeal regardless of age, older not as willing to pay
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- Figure 66: Attitudes toward milk, by generation, July 2017
Attitudes toward Flavor
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- Innovative flavors appeal to niche audiences, not overall consumers
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- Figure 67: Attitudes toward milk, July 2017
- New flavors draw in non-dairy consumers, less so dairy
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- Figure 68: Attitudes toward milk, flavor innovation, July 2017
- Fathers intrigued by flavor innovation in milk
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- Figure 69: Attitudes toward milk, by gender and parental status, July 2017
- Flavor sparks interest among Hispanics
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- Figure 70: Attitudes toward milk, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2017
Milk Associations
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- Associations with dairy milk link to purchase
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- Figure 71: Perceptions of dairy and non-dairy milk, July 2017
- Skim/low-fat trails whole milk in nearly all areas
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- Figure 72: Perceptions of whole and skim/low-fat milk, July 2017
- Milk’s association with drinking is lessening
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- Figure 73: Perceptions of whole and skim/low-fat milk, “good to drink with a meal,” July 2017
- White consumers more likely to see benefits of skim/low-fat milk
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- Figure 74: Perceptions of whole and skim/low-fat dairy milks, by race and Hispanic origin, July 2017
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 75: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, by segment, at current prices, 2015 and 2017
- Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of skim/low-fat milk, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of skim/low-fat milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 78: Total US retail sales and forecast of whole milk, at current prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 79: Total US retail sales and forecast of whole milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 80: Total US retail sales and forecast of flavored milk, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 81: Total US retail sales and forecast of flavored milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 82: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf stable dairy milk, at current prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 83: Total US retail sales and forecast of shelf stable dairy milk, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2012-22
- Figure 84: Total US retail sales of dairy milk, by channel, at current prices, 2012-17
- Figure 85: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of skim/low-fat milk, at current prices, 2012-22
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- Figure 86: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of whole milk, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 87: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of flavored milk, at current prices, 2012-22
- Figure 88: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of shelf stable dairy milk, at current prices, 2012-22
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 89: MULO sales of skim/low-fat milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 90: MULO sales of whole milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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- Figure 91: MULO sales of flavoured milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Figure 92: MULO sales of shelf stable milk, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
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