Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Struggles of RTE cereals segment bring down the entire market 2012-17
- RTE cereals’ weakness to continue to overshadow the category 2017-22
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- Figure 1: UK retail value sales of breakfast cereals, 2012-22
- ‘Official’ movement against sugar poses challenges and opportunities
- New government health advice looks to boost fibre consumption
- Breakfast cereals could benefit from an income squeeze
- Ageing population to affect RTE and hot cereals differently
- Companies and brands
- Kellogg’s brands continue to struggle while own-label rises
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- Figure 2: Leading manufacturers’ shares in the UK RTE cereals market, by value, 2016/17*
- Quaker retains leading position in hot cereals but loses sales
- Launch activity falls in 2016
- L/N/R sugar claims rise but remain niche
- Brands focus on emotions in their 2016/17 advertising
- Weetabix and Quaker Oat So Simple enjoy strong reputations
- The consumer
- RTE cereals have high penetration, but only a minority eat them daily
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- Figure 3: Usage of breakfast cereals, June 2017
- Little brand loyalty, with price promotions a key influence
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- Figure 4: Breakfast cereal buying habits, June 2017
- Fractured breakfast eating patterns erode breakfast occasions
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- Figure 5: Breakfast cereal eating and buying behaviours, June 2017
- Ingredients with ‘natural’ image appeal most as sugar substitutes
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- Figure 6: Preferred alternatives to sugar, June 2017
- Breakfast cereals can benefit from an income squeeze
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- Figure 7: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, June 2017
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Extension of portable formats needed to respond to fragmented breakfast eating patterns
- The facts
- The implications
- Healthy children’s cereals with appealing packaging could help to win back lapsed users
- The facts
- The implications
- Daily intake labelling would make high-fibre claims more tangible
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Struggles of RTE cereals segment bring down the entire market 2012-16
- Further volume decline in 2017
- RTE cereals’ weakness to continue to overshadow the category 2017-22
- ‘Official’ movement against sugar poses challenges and opportunities
- New government health advice looks to boost fibre consumption
- Breakfast cereals could benefit from an income squeeze
- Ageing population to affect RTE and hot cereals differently
Market Size, Segmentation and Forecast
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- Ongoing decline in RTE cereals brings down the entire market 2012-17
- Weakness of RTE cereals to continue to hinder the category 2017-22
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- Figure 8: UK retail sales of breakfast cereals, by value and volume, 2012-22
- Figure 9: UK retail value sales of breakfast cereals, 2012-22
- Further decline for RTE cereals in 2016/17
- No recovery in volume sales imminent
- Diverse factors will affect RTE cereals over 2017-22
- Weakness of volume sales and trading down to slow value growth
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- Figure 10: UK retail sales of RTE cereals, by value and volume, 2012-22
- Figure 11: UK retail value sales of RTE cereals, 2012-22
- Modest growth in hot cereal volume sales in 2016
- Volume sales growth stalls in 2017
- Ageing population to support hot cereals 2017-22
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- Figure 12: UK retail sales of hot cereals, by value and volume, 2012-22
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- Figure 13: UK retail value sales of hot cereals, 2012-22
- Forecast methodology
Market Drivers
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- ‘Official’ movement against sugar provides challenges and opportunities
- Government sets industry targets to cut sugar
- EFSA rules put low sugar limit at 5g per 100g
- PHE targets parents with breakfast campaign
- Liverpool Council ‘names and shames’ children’s cereals
- New government health advice looks to boost fibre consumption
- Inflation to affect the market
- Breakfast cereals could benefit from an income squeeze
- New rules ban online advertising of sugary products to children
- Ageing population to affect RTE and hot cereals differently
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Kellogg’s brands continue to struggle while own-label rises
- Quaker retains leading position in hot cereals but loses sales
- Launch activity falls in 2016
- L/N/R sugar claims rise but remain niche
- Brands focus on emotions in their 2016/17 advertising
- Weetabix and Quaker Oat So Simple enjoy strong reputations
Market Share
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- Kellogg’s brands continue to struggle
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- Figure 14: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK RTE cereals market, by value and volume, 2015/16-2016/17
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- Figure 15: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK RTE cereals market, by value and volume, 2015/16-2016/17
- NPD and aisle redesigns help own-label to grow sales
- Supermarkets continue to compete on price
- Weetabix Minis outperforms the standard variant
- Quaker continues to lead on hot cereals but loses sales
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- Figure 16: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK hot cereals market, by value and volume, 2015/16-2016/17
- Figure 17: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK hot cereals market, by value and volume, 2015/16-2016/17
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Launch activity declines in 2016
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- Figure 18: New product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by private label and brands, 2013-17
- High/added fibre remains the primary health claim
- Wholegrain made central to high-fibre claims
- Multiple health claims used to give additional differentiation
- Quaker emphasizes the vitamin content of its Super Goodness range
- Further growth in high fibre and L/N/R sugar cereals
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- Figure 19: New product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by top 20 claims (sorted by 2016), 2013-17
- L/N/R sugar claims rise in 2016
- Brands and retailers reformulate
- Growth in gluten-free launches drives rise in L/N/R allergy claims
- Smaller brands and retailers lead the way
- Kellogg’s maintains its lead on NPD in 2016
- Extensions to Coco Pops and Crunchy Nut ranges in 2017
- Quaker ups NPD activity, with a focus on convenience
- Pouched product promoted as good for eating on the go
- Overnight Oats allows potential for summertime eating
- Oat So Simple gets high-protein variant
- Weetabix focuses on provenance with limited-edition packaging
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Advertising spend falls to four-year low in 2016
- Kellogg’s and Nestlé continue to dominate advertising
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- Figure 20: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on breakfast cereals, by top 5 advertisers (sorted by 2016), 2013-17
- Brands focus on strength to build aspirational image
- Special K takes holistic approach to health in female-orientated campaign
- Shredded Wheat links its wholegrain attributes with courage
- Quaker Oats recruits Buzz Aldrin to push achievement message
- Weetabix revives its ‘Have you had your Weetabix?’ slogan
- Social aspects of breakfast emphasized to strengthen emotional associations
- Kellogg’s links Cornflakes with individuality and family banter
- Cheerios emphasizes the importance of family breakfasts
- Coco Pops looks to appeal to time-pressed and health-conscious parents
- Other Kellogg’s campaigns
- Special K emphasizes taste as well as health to widen its appeal…
- …and looks to address sugar concerns
- Crunchy Nut launches challenge competition
- Multi-brand YouTube campaign looks to find new occasions
- Alpen advert uses Swiss imagery to emphasise traditional recipe
- Nestlé and Quaker offer tasting opportunities
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 21: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, June 2017
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 22: Key metrics for selected brands, June 2017
- Brand attitudes: Weetabix and Quaker Oat So Simple have the best reputations
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- Figure 23: Attitudes, by brand, June 2017
- Brand personality: Coco Pops and Crunchy Nut are seen as the most fun
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- Figure 24: Brand personality – Macro image, June 2017
- Weetabix and Quaker Oat So Simple are seen as the most traditional
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- Figure 25: Brand personality – Micro image, June 2017
- Brand analysis
- Quaker Oat So Simple is seen as the most comforting
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- Figure 26: User profile of Oat So Simple, June 2017
- Weetabix is the most recommended brand
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- Figure 27: User profile of Weetabix, June 2017
- Crunchy Nut scores highest for taste
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- Figure 28: User profile of Crunchy Nut, June 2017
- Dorset Cereals is seen as the most ethical brand
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- Figure 29: User profile of Dorset Cereals, June 2017
- Special K is held in high esteem by women
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- Figure 30: User profile of Special K, June 2017
- Coco Pops is seen as the most fun
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- Figure 31: User profile of Coco Pops, June 2017
- Shredded Wheat is favoured by men
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- Figure 32: User profile of Shredded Wheat, June 2017
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- RTE cereals have high penetration, but only a minority eat daily
- Little brand loyalty, with price promotions a key influence
- Fractured breakfast eating patterns erode breakfast occasions
- Ingredients with ‘natural’ image appeal most as sugar substitutes
- Further information on grain sourcing appeals to many
Usage of Breakfast Cereals
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- Overall usage of RTE cereals is unchanged
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- Figure 33: Usage of breakfast cereals, June 2017
- Under-25s are key users of RTE cereals
- …as are families
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- Figure 34: Usage frequency for RTE cereals and porridge oats, June 2017
- Porridge oats are favoured by older consumers
- Oats’ healthy image and satiety associations boost popularity among women
Breakfast Cereal Buying Factors
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- Consumers’ desire for variety and retailer tactics fuel low brand loyalty
- Over-55s are the most loyal
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- Figure 35: Breakfast cereal buying habits, June 2017
- Free samples are a key enticement
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- Figure 36: Prompts to try a new brand of cereal, June 2017
- Link-ups with supermarket loyalty schemes could help to harness the power of discounts
- Prices and promotions have a strong influence on brand switching
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- Figure 37: Factors influencing choice of breakfast cereal, June 2017
- Older people are particularly likely to value no added sugar
- Appeal of no added sugar labels benefits certain varieties
- Interest in high fibre should support wholegrain cereals
- One third do not check nutritional tables
- Daily intake labelling could help to make fibre claims more tangible
- New flavours appeal particularly to younger consumers
Breakfast Cereal Eating and Buying Behaviours
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- Fragmented eating patterns reduce breakfast occasions
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- Figure 38: Breakfast cereal eating and buying behaviours, June 2017
- Promoting breakfast’s importance could help to combat breakfast skipping
- Expansion in handheld formats should help companies to respond to the ‘snackification’ of breakfast
- Sweet snacks from cereal brands appeal to many
- Harnessing pester power proves a double-edged sword for companies
- Healthy children’s cereals with appealing packaging could help to win back lapsed users
- Media reports on ‘shrinkflation’ influence consumers’ behaviour
- Transparency could stave off potential backlash
Preferred Alternatives to Sugar
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- Honey’s natural health halo boosts its appeal
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- Figure 39: Preferred alternatives to sugar, June 2017
- Dried fruit’s appeal should boost no added sugar mueslis
- Consumer health concerns and unfamiliarity limit appeal of sweeteners
- Appeal of less sweet-tasting products offers opportunities for manufacturers
Attitudes towards Breakfast Cereals
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- Breakfast cereals could benefit from an income squeeze
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- Figure 40: Attitudes towards breakfast cereals, June 2017
- Further details on grain origin would be welcomed by many
- Smaller brands should be best placed to benefit from consumer interest in provenance
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 41: Forecast of UK sales of breakfast cereals, by value, best- and worst-case, 2017-22
- Figure 42: Forecast of UK sales of breakfast cereals, by volume, best- and worst-case, 2016-21
- Figure 43: Forecast of UK sales of RTE cereals, by value, best- and worst-case, 2017-22
- Figure 44: Forecast of UK sales of RTE cereals, by volume, best- and worst-case, 2017-22
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- Figure 45: Forecast of UK sales of hot cereals, by value, best- and worst-case, 2017-22
- Figure 46: Forecast of UK sales of hot cereals, by volume, best- and worst-case, 2017-22
- Figure 47: UK retail volume sales of breakfast cereals, 2012-22
- Figure 48: UK retail volume sales for RTE cereals, 2012-22
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- Figure 49: UK retail volume sales of hot cereals, 2012-22
- Forecast methodology
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Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 50: New product launches in the UK breakfast cereals market, by top ten companies (sorted by 2016, 2013-16
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