Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Sales of CSDs have continued to grow
- Sugar Levy expected to drive retail volume sales down
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK sales of carbonated soft drinks, by value, 2012-22
- Continued growth of L/N/R sugar boosts cola sales
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- Figure 2: Retail value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks, by segment, 2016
- Sugar is top health ‘foe’ – Soft Drinks Sugar Levy due in March 2018
- Artificial sweeteners divide industry
- Growing child population should boost the category
- Rise in real consumer incomes is expected to end
- Companies and brands
- L/N/R sugar brands benefit from sugar concerns
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- Figure 3: Leading brands’ shares in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks market, by value, 2015/16 and 2016/17
- Britvic sees value and volume decline in the adult CSDs market
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- Figure 4: Leading brands’ shares in the UK retail adult soft drinks market, by value, 2015/16 and 2016/17
- Companies pledge to reduce sugar
- Coke Zero renamed; Life culled; Fanta lightened
- Brands tap into consumer demand for premium drinks
- Adspend exceeds 2013 level
- Coke supports Zero Sugar rebrand, Pepsi links with events
- Coke enjoys highest trust
- The consumer
- Sugary CSD usage falls in 2016
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- Figure 5: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, April 2017
- Low price and matching sugary CSDs’ taste would most boost light CSDs
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- Figure 6: Factors to encourage switching to diet/light carbonated soft drinks, April 2017
- Taste and quality ingredients are key attributes for premium CSDs
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- Figure 7: Factors deemed important in a premium carbonated soft drink, April 2017
- Three in five consumers want easy sugar guidelines on-pack
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- Figure 8: Attitudes related to carbonated soft drinks, April 2017
- ‘Low in calories’ is top association for all ‘light’ labels – but far from universal
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- Figure 9: Selected qualities associated with L/N/R sugar carbonated soft drinks, by type, April 2017
- Cutting back on consumption is the most likely reaction to levy
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- Figure 10: Expected reactions to the Soft Drinks Sugar Levy on carbonated soft drinks consumption, April 2017
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Improving health credentials of L/N/R sugar variants could build trust amongst consumers
- The facts
- The implications
- Marked potential to move sugary CSD drinkers to L/N/R sugar variants
- The facts
- The implications
- Opportunity for premium CSDs to appeal to adults looking for alternatives to alcohol
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Sales of CSDs have continued to grow
- Sugar Levy expected to drive retail volume sales down
- Continued growth of L/N/R sugar boosts cola sales
- Sugar is top health ‘foe’ – Soft Drinks Sugar Levy due in March 2018
- Safety of artificial sweeteners divides industry
- Growing child population should boost the category
- Rise in real consumer incomes is expected to end
Market Size and Forecast
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- Sales of CSDs have continued to grow
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- Figure 11: Forecast of UK sales of carbonated soft drinks, by volume, 2012-22
- Value sales expected to keep climbing
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- Figure 12: Forecast of UK sales of carbonated soft drinks, by value, 2012-22
- Sugar Levy expected to drive retail volume sales down
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- Figure 13: Forecast of UK retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by volume, 2012-22
- Figure 14: Forecast of UK retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by value, 2012-22
- On-premise sales of CSDs slide
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- Figure 15: Forecast of UK on-premise sales of carbonated soft drinks, by value, 2012-22
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- Figure 16: Forecast of UK on-premise sales of carbonated soft drinks, by volume, 2012-22
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Continued growth of L/N/R sugar options boosts cola sales
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- Figure 17: Retail value and volume sales of carbonated soft drinks and adult soft drinks, by segment, 2014-16
- Mixer drinks were the strongest performers in 2016
- Fall in sales of lemonade continues
Market Drivers
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- Sugar is the key driver of change in the category
- Soft Drinks Sugar Industry Levy to be invoked in March 2018
- Sugar is top health ‘foe’
- The industry responds with sugar reduction and recipe reformulation
- NHS to cut the sales of sugary drinks
- Safety of artificial sweeteners divides industry
- Reduced alcohol consumption provides an opportunity for CSDs
- Growing child population should boost the category
- Rise in real consumer incomes is expected to end
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- L/N/R sugar brands benefits from sugar concerns
- Britvic sees value and volume decline in the adult CSDs market
- Companies pledge to reduce sugar
- Coca-Cola Zero renamed, Life culled, Fanta lightened
- Brands tap into consumer demand for premium drinks
- Adspend exceeds 2013 level
- Coca-Cola supports Zero Sugar rebrand; Pepsi links with events
- Coca-Cola enjoys highest trust
Market Share
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- L/N/R sugar brands benefit from sugar concerns
- Standard Coke struggles, Zero Sugar rebrand drives growth
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- Figure 18: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks market, by value and volume, 2015/16 and 2016/17
- Xtra variant helps Irn-Bru grows
- PepsiCo enjoys sales growth as Pepsi Max gains value share
- Fever-Tree sees substantial growth as mixer drinks continue to grow
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- Figure 19: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail carbonated soft drinks market, by value and volume, 2015/16 and 2016/17
- Britvic sees value and volume decline in the adult soft drinks market
- Premium brands buck the downward trend
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- Figure 20: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail adult carbonated soft drinks market, by value and volume, 2015/16 and 2016/17
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- NPD in the CSDs market falls behind juice and tea
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- Figure 21: Share of new product launches in the UK non-alcoholic drinks market, by category, 2013-16
- Companies pledge to make sizeable sugar reductions
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- Figure 22: Share of new product launches in the carbonated soft drinks market with L/N/R sugar claims, 2013-17
- New recipe and new look for Fanta
- Success of Coca-Cola Zero Sugar leads to brand extension…
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- Figure 23: Share of new product launches in the UK carbonated soft drink market, by top companies (sorted by 2016), 2013-17
- …but the end of Coca-Cola Life
- PepsiCo unveils UK’s first ginger and cola combination
- Brands tap into consumer demand for premium drinks
- Cans and anniversary packaging for Schweppes mixers
- Fever-Tree expands tonic range and adds a cola variant to its offering
- Appletiser launches premium cans
- M&S add two premium CSDs to its Spirit of Summer range
- R White’s lemonade rebranding accompanied by new flavour additions
- Revived Victorian brand looks to take on Fever-Tree with premium tonic range
- London-based Dalston’s continues craft soda revolution
- Welsh craft soda Lurvill’s Delight resurrected following craft movement
- Juice group launches exclusive charcoal lemonade
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Adspend exceeds 2013 level
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- Figure 24: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure in the UK carbonated soft drinks market, by top 10 Advertisers, 2013-17
- Coca-Cola Zero re-brands to avoid consumer confusion over sugar
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- Figure 25: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure in the UK carbonated soft drinks market, by top 10 brands, 2013-17
- TV personality Holly Willoughby appointed as Diet Coke brand ambassador
- ‘Share a Coke’ campaign returns with top holiday destinations
- Old Jamaica launches summer campaign
- ‘Talking Rubbish’ social experiment from Coca-Cola
- Coca-Cola continues to support charity FareShare with Christmas campaign
- PepsiCo focuses on football fans for 2017 UEFA sponsorship
- Pepsi Max targets Millennials with ‘Summer of Music’ campaign
- Brands look to new usage occasions for CSDs
- J2O Spritz makes first TV appearance
- Fever-Tree uses history of gin and tonic to raise awareness over malaria
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- What you need to know
- Brand map
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- Figure 26: Attitudes towards and usage of selected drinks brands, April 2017
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 27: Key metrics for selected drinks brands, April 2017
- Brand attitudes: Coca-Cola excels on quality image and reputation
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- Figure 28: Attitudes, by drinks brand, April 2017
- Brand personality: Fever Tree most widely seen as exclusive and ethical
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- Figure 29: Brand personality – Macro image, April 2017
- Coca-Cola has strong ties with authenticity and the most traditional image
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- Figure 30: Brand personality – Micro image, April 2017
- Brand analysis
- Fever-Tree stands out on a sophisticated and stylish image
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- Figure 31: User profile of Fever-Tree, April 2017
- Coca-Cola is the most trusted brand, with strongest quality image
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- Figure 32: User profile of Coca-Cola, April 2017
- Despite low usage, Coca-Cola Zero Sugar enjoys strong endorsement
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- Figure 33: User profile of Coca-Cola Zero Sugar, April 2017
- Sprite stands out as refreshing
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- Figure 34: User profile of Sprite, April 2017
- Diet Coke enjoys high levels of commitment
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- Figure 35: User profile of Diet Coke, April 2017
- Pepsi Max lacks a clearly differentiated image
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- Figure 36: User profile of Pepsi Max, April 2017
- Tango has a strong fun image despite being most widely seen as falling behind
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- Figure 37: User profile of Tango, April 2017
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Sugary CSDs usage falls in 2016
- Low price and matching sugary CSDs’ taste would most boost light CSDs
- Taste and quality ingredients are key attributes for a premium CSD
- Three in five consumers want easy sugar guidelines on-pack
- Scope for mainstream brands to offer premium carbonated soft drinks
- Low in calories is top association for all labels – but far from universal
- Most labels are widely associated with being artificially sweetened
- Cutting back on consumption is the most likely reaction
Usage of Carbonated Soft Drinks
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- Most diet CSD drinkers also drink standard variants
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- Figure 38: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, April 2017
- CSD usage retains youth bias
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- Figure 39: Usage of non-diet and diet/light carbonated soft drinks, by age, April 2017
- Diet/light CSDs are drunk more frequently
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- Figure 40: Frequency of drinking carbonated soft drinks, by type, April 2017
- CSDs are most commonly drunk at home
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- Figure 41: Usage of carbonated soft drinks, by location, April 2017
- Two in five have drunk CSDs in the on-premise channel
Factors to Encourage Drinking of Diet/light Carbonated Soft Drinks
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- Low price would most boost light CSDs
- Matching sugary CSDs’ taste would sway two in five
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- Figure 42: Factors to encourage drinking of diet/light carbonated soft drinks, April 2017
- Over-65s most drawn to no artificial colourings or flavourings
- Endorsements from health bodies chime most with younger age groups and parents of under-5s
Important Factors in Premium Carbonated Soft Drinks
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- Taste is the key attribute for a premium CSD
- Unusual flavours could differentiate products
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- Figure 43: Factors deemed important in a premium carbonated soft drink, April 2017
- High-quality ingredients lie not far behind
- Natural ingredients are also a key factor
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- Figure 44: Share of new product launches in the carbonated soft drinks market carrying an all-natural product claim, 2013-17
- 16-24s most drawn to attractive packaging
Attitudes Related to Carbonated Soft Drinks
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- Three in five consumers want easy sugar guidelines on-pack
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- Figure 45: Attitudes related to carbonated soft drinks, April 2017
- High interest in drinks with British fruit, but low current availability
- Scope for mainstream brands to offer premium carbonated soft drinks
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- Figure 46: Carbonated soft drinks – CHAID – Tree output, April 2017
- Methodology
- Added texture interests a quarter; younger consumers are the most receptive
Qualities Associated with L/N/R Sugar and Energy Labels in Carbonated Soft Drinks
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- EFSA regulations of L/N/R sugar and energy claims
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- Figure 47: EFSA permitted nutrition claims regarding L/N/R sugar and energy in liquids, April 2017
- Low in calories is top associations for all labels – but far from universal
- Most labels are widely associated with being artificially sweetened
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- Figure 48: Qualities associated with carbonated soft drinks, by type, April 2017
- Few see any of the drinks as tasty
Expected Reactions to the Soft Drinks Sugar Levy
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- Methodology
- Cutting back on consumption is the most likely reaction
- Over a third would not change their drinking habits at all
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- Figure 49: Expected reactions to the Soft Drinks Sugar Levy on carbonated soft drinks consumption, April 2017
- Other soft drinks may benefit from CSD cutbacks
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- Figure 50: Expected behavioural change of those who would cut back or stop drinking carbonated soft drinks, April 2017
- Small opportunity to encourage trading up
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 51: Forecast of UK sales of carbonated soft drinks, by value and volume, 2012-22
- Figure 52: Forecast of UK retail sales of carbonated soft drinks, by value and volume, 2012-22
- Figure 53: Forecast of UK on-premise sales of carbonated soft drinks, by value and volume, 2012-22
- Forecast methodology
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Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 54: New product launches in the carbonated soft drinks market with a real fruit claim, 2013-17
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Appendix – Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Figure 55: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail adult soft drinks market, by value and volume, 2015/16 and 2016/17
- Figure 56: Share of above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising in the UK carbonated soft drinks market, by top 10 advertisers, 2013-17
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- Figure 57: Share of above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising in the UK carbonated soft drinks market, by top 10 brands, 2013-17
- Figure 58: Above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising in the UK carbonated soft drinks market, by parent company and brand, 2013-16
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 59: Usage of non-diet and diet/light carbonated soft drinks, by usage occasion, April 2017
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- Figure 60: Factors to encourage switching to diet/light carbonated soft drinks, April 2017
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- Figure 61: Factors to encourage switching to diet/light carbonated soft drinks, April 2017
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- Figure 62: Carbonated soft drinks – CHAID – Table output, April 2017
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- Figure 63: Qualities associated with types of carbonated soft drinks, by light formats, April 2017
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- Figure 64: Qualities associated with types of carbonated soft drinks, by no added sugar formats, April 2017
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- Figure 65: Qualities associated with types of carbonated soft drinks, by diet formats, April 2017
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- Figure 66: Qualities associated with types of carbonated soft drinks, by zero sugar, April 2017
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- Figure 67: Qualities associated with types of carbonated soft drinks, by sugar free formats, April 2017
- EFSA permitted nutrition claims related to LNR sugar and energy claims
- Low energy
- Energy-reduced
- Energy-free
- Low sugars
- Sugars-free
- No added sugars
- Reduced [Name of the nutrient]
- Light/lite
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