Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Adoption nearly complete
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- Figure 1: Cell phone ownership among adults and teens, April 2014-November 2016
- Service revenue in decline
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- Figure 2: Wireless carrier service revenues, 2013-16
- Growth via acquisitions tough
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- Figure 3: Tenure with current carrier, January 2017
- The opportunities
- Moving into cars
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- Figure 4: Willingness to pay for mobile internet for cars, by price, January 2017
- Reducing spending via more targeted marketing
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- Figure 5: Interest in changing service, January 2017
- Focusing on the needs of the minority
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- Figure 6: Attitudes to unlimited data, January 2017
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Stagnant sales
- Slow growth for branded service
- Growth in M2M
- Most subscribers stick with carrier for three years or more
- Tablets retain room to propel sales
- OTT for branded prepaid
Market Size and Forecast
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- Growth narrows 2015-16
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- Figure 7: US wireless service revenues fan chart and forecast, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 8: US wireless service revenues and forecast, at current prices, 2011-21
Market Breakdown
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- Postpaid slowest segment
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- Figure 9: Subscriptions, prepaid vs postpaid, 2015 vs 2016
- Gains seen at MVNOs
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- Figure 10: Subscriptions, branded prepaid vs branded postpaid vs MVNO, 2015 vs 2016
Market Perspective
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- Adoption nearly complete
- Little room for expansion in unlimited
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- Figure 11: Cell phone ownership among adults and teens, April 2014-November 2016
- Courting teens and tweens
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- Figure 12: Cell phone ownership among adults and teens, April 2015-November 2016
- M2M subscriptions shine
Market Factors
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- Growth via acquisitions tough
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- Figure 13: Tenure with current carrier, January 2017
- Smartphones headed toward universal penetration
- Tablets still offer gains
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- Figure 14: Smartphone and tablet ownership, April 2015 vs January 2017
- Larger, faster phones drive mobile entertainment
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- Figure 15: Activities conducted by device, PC vs phone, January 2017
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- T-Mobile rising
- Equipment sales drive growth
- Value rejected
- 5G rollout this year
Carrier Sales and Subscriptions
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- T-Mobile sales grow 16% in 2016
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- Figure 16: Service and equipment sales by carrier, 2015-16
- Limited changes in share favor T-Mobile brands
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- Figure 17: Branded subscriptions by carrier, 2015-16
What’s Working?
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- Equipment sales
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- Figure 18: Wireless carrier equipment sales revenues, 2012-16
What’s Struggling?
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- Value
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- Figure 19: Price per month for unlimited service, April 2017
- Service revenue
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- Figure 20: Wireless carrier service revenues, 2013-16
What’s Next?
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- Tweens and smartphone ownership
- Auto subscriptions
- Subscriptions for cars a tough sell, but necessary
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- Figure 21: Interest in mobile internet for cars, January 2017
- Services tout safety, teen tracking, happy kids
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- Figure 22: Verizon Hum creative materials, December 2016
- 5G
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Limited interested in changing carrier
- 3Cs: Coverage, cost, confidence more important than speed, promotions
- Unlimited not for everyone
Carrier
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- Majority opt for higher-cost carriers
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- Figure 23: Mobile network provider, January 2017
- Differences in income typify carrier selection
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- Figure 24: Mobile network provider, CHAID tree by demographic groups, January 2017
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- Figure 25: Mobile network provider CHAID, January 2017
Intent to Switch Carrier
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- Only one in six planning a change
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- Figure 26: Interest in changing service, January 2017
- Parents in second year of service top target
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- Figure 27: Interest in changing service – CHAID tree, January 2017
- Dads standout
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- Figure 28: Interest in changing service in next month, by gender and age, January 2017
- Hispanics carry elevated intent to change carriers
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- Figure 29: Interest in changing service in next month, by Hispanic origin, January 2017
- Urbanites busting a move
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- Figure 30: Interest in changing service in next month, by location of residence, January 2017
Carrier Selection
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- Confidence scores
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- Figure 31: Carrier selection – Leading factors, January 2017
- Forget the phone
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- Figure 32: Carrier selection – Trailing factors, January 2017
- Low-cost shoppers keep moving
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- Figure 33: Selection of lowest-cost carrier, by intent to change carriers, January 2017
- Hispanics price sensitive
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- Figure 34: Selection of lowest-cost carrier, by race and Hispanic origin, January 2017
- Youngest adults buy speed
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- Figure 35: Selection of carrier due to fastest network, by age, January 2017
Attitudes to Data
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- Half of subscribers deprioritize unlimited
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- Figure 36: Attitudes to unlimited data, January 2017
- Switchers want their unlimited service fast
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- Figure 37: Attitudes to unlimited data, by interest in changing service, January 2017
- Younger age groups need that data
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- Figure 38: Interest in unlimited data, by age, January 2017
- Subscribers make informed decisions
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- Figure 39: Interest in unlimited data, by carrier, January 2017
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- CHAID analysis methodology
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 40: Total US sales and forecast of market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
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Appendix – The Consumer
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- Figure 41: Optimal target group for changing service – CHAID output, January 2017
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