Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- The juice market remains flat
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- Figure 1: Total US sales of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2011-21
- Sugar concerns are behind falling sales
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- Figure 2: Juice consumption frequency, by juice segmentation, February 2017
- Orange juice experiences YOY declines
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- Figure 3: Non-frozen OJ consumption, Fall 2012-16
- The opportunities
- Focus on functionality
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- Figure 4: Appealing juice attributes, February 2017
- Consumers think of juice as a CSD alternative
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- Figure 5: CHAID analysis – Juice statement agreement, February 2017
- Growing juice drinks satisfy unique needs
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Juice sales have stalled
- Newer, trendier drinks are stealing juice/smoothie sales
- Sugar’s role in the juice market may change due to rules and regulations
- Juice consumption among kids is flat
Market Size and Forecast
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- The juice market falls flat
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- Figure 6: Total US sales of juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice and juice drinks, at current prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice and juice drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
Market Breakdown
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- 100% juice continues its decline
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast sales of juice and juice drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales of juice and juice drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
- Convenience stores see growth of juice sales
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- Figure 11: Total retail sales of juice and juice drinks, by channel, at current prices 2011-16
- Figure 12: Total US retail sales of juice and juice drinks, by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
- Natural channel experiences slight growth
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- Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of juice and juice drinks, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending 2/22/15-2/19/17
- Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of juice and juice drinks, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending 2/22/15 and 2/19/17
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- Figure 15: Natural supermarket sales of juice and juice drinks, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending 2/22/15 and 2/19/17
- Figure 16: Natural supermarket sales of refrigerated and shelf-stable juice and juice drinks*, by presence of alternative sweetener, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending 2/22/15 and 2/19/17
Market Perspective
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- RTD soups blur the line between soups and smoothies
- Juice declines on menus but becomes more complex
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- Figure 17: Change in incidence of the top 10 fruit juices on menus, Q4 2015-Q4 2016
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- Figure 18: Examples of juice with herbal and spice ingredients at restaurants
- Made-to-order smoothies can be a fun on-the-go treat
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- Figure 19: MTO smoothie attitudes, any agree, February 2017
- Nutritional and performance drinks compete with smoothies
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- Figure 20: Total US retail sales and forecast of nutritional and performance drinks, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
Market Factors
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- Anti-sugar laws put juice in a gray legal zone
- New FDA labels could change the conversation around sugar
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- Figure 21: Comparison of original versus new US nutritional fact label
- Figure 22: Average grams of sugar per 100ml, all still juice, 2012-17
- Americans are having fewer children and kid/teen juice consumption is erratic
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- Figure 23: Number of live births in thousands by year, 2000-15
- Figure 24: Share of US HHs with presence of related* children, 2006-16
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- Figure 25: Consumption of juices among children (aged 6-11), 2012-16
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- Figure 26: Mean number of glasses of juice consumed in the past week, among children (aged 6-11) who drink juice type
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- Figure 27: Consumption of juices among teens (aged 12-17), 2012-16
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- Figure 28: Mean number of glasses of juice consumed in the past 30 days, among teens 9 (aged 12-17) who drink juice type
- OJ prices likely to rise as Florida faces record-low orange harvest
- Beverage blurring is an industry trend with both positives and negatives for the juice category
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- Figure 29: Ideal hybrid drink – Drink type, November 2016
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- All major companies experience sales loss
- Successful juice brands satisfy unique needs/occasions
- Orange juice struggles as a staple drink
- Niche functional drinks are growing
Company and Brand Sales of 100% Juice, Juice Drinks, and Smoothies
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- All major players see a decline in sales
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- Figure 30: MULO sales of 100% juice, juice drinks, and smoothies, by leading companies, 52-weeks ending Feb. 19, 2017
- 100% juice is a pain point for companies
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- Figure 31: MULO sales of 100% juice, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Mixed bag for juice drink companies
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- Figure 32: MULO sales of juice drinks, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
- Smoothie sales rise at a slow rate
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- Figure 33: MULO sales of smoothies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2016 and 2017
What’s Working?
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- Coconut water sets itself apart in the juice market
- Bring on the bubbles
- Consumers are sweet on lemonade
What’s Struggling?
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- Refrigerated orange juice continues to decline
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- Figure 34: Household non-frozen orange juice consumption, Fall 2012-16
- Campbell’s sees declines of its vegetable juice brands
- Mixes are missing out
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- Figure 35: MULO sales of juice drink mixes, 2013-16
- Smoothie growth is tapering
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- Figure 36: MULO sales of Naked Juice Smoothies (all brands), 2014-16
What’s Next?
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- Not your father’s lemonade
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- Figure 37: Lemonade examples at restaurants, Q4 2016
- It’s a gut feeling
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- Figure 38: New still juice products, functional claims, 2012-17
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- Figure 39: Natural supermarket sales of refrigerated and shelf-stable juice and juice drinks, by pre- and probiotic content, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending 2/22/15 and 2/19/17
- Vim and vinegar
- Make it a mocktail
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- iGens are key juice drinkers
- Most consumers are moderate juice drinkers
- Functional juice attributes may increase juice consumption
- Consumers think of juice as a CSD alternative
- Consumer concerns over sugar are driving the decline of the juice market
Juice Product Purchases
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- 100% fruit juice remains the most purchased juice type
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- Figure 40: HH juice purchases, February 2017
- iGens lead juice drink purchases
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- Figure 41: HH juice purchases, by generation, February 2017
- Younger women are buying more healthful juices
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- Figure 42: HH juice purchases, by age and gender, February 2017
- Hispanics buy a variety of juices
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- Figure 43: HH juice purchases, by Hispanic origin, February 2017
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- Figure 44: HH juice purchases, by race, February 2017
- Young, affluent consumers are coconut water buyers
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- Figure 45: HH juice purchases, by HH income, February 2017
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- Figure 46: HH coconut water purchases, by HH income and age, February 2017
- Juice purchases varies by location
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- Figure 47: HH juice purchases, by location, February 2017
- Parents are 100% juice buyers
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- Figure 48: HH juice purchases, by parental status under 45, February 2017
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- Figure 49: HH juice purchases, by number of children under 18 in HH, February 2017
- Healthy Believers are key 100% fruit juice buyers
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- Figure 50: Juice consumption frequency, by juice segmentation, February 2017
Juice Consumption Frequency
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- A majority of consumers are moderate juice drinkers
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- Figure 51: Juice consumption frequency, February 2017
- Consumption frequency depends on juice attitudes
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- Figure 52: Juice consumption frequency, by juice segmentation, February 2017
- Higher earners are more on both ends of the drinker spectrum
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- Figure 53: Juice consumption frequency, by HH income, February 2017
Juice Attribute Appeal
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- Specific juice attributes resonate with consumers
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- Figure 54: Appealing juice attributes, February 2017
- Functional juices appeal to iGens
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- Figure 55: Appealing juice attributes, by generation, February 2017
- Certain attributes can attract Sugar Concern consumers
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- Figure 56: Appealing juice attributes, by juice segmentation, February 2017
- Smoothie drinkers are interested in functional beverages
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- Figure 57: Appealing juice attributes, by juice type drinkers, February 2017
- Reducing sugar levels may increase juice consumption among infrequent drinkers
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- Figure 58: Appealing juice attributes, by juice type drinkers, February 2017
- Reaching consumers through specific attributes
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- Figure 59: Appealing juice attributes, by juice type drinkers, February 2017
Juice Type Association
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- Vegetable juice falls short of important associations
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- Figure 60: Correspondence analysis – Juice association, February 2017
- Older consumers drive positive sentiment around vegetable juice
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- Figure 61: Juice association, vegetable juice, by generation, February 2017
- Men and women have varying associations of juices
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- Figure 62: Juice association, fruit juice, by gender, February 2017
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- Figure 63: Juice association, smoothies, by gender, February 2017
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- Figure 64: Juice association, vegetable juice, by gender, February 2017
Juice Attitudes
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- Juice can be a CSD alternative
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- Figure 65: Juice statement agreement, February 2017
- CHAID analysis: juice as a CSD alternative
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- Figure 66: CHAID analysis – Juice statement agreement, February 2017
- Sugar concerns are why infrequent drinkers don’t consume more juice
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- Figure 67: Juice statement agreement, by any juice frequency consumption, February 2017
- Older consumers consider juice a staple breakfast drink
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- Figure 68: Juice statement agreement, by generation, February 2017
- Urbanites and rural consumers have very different perceptions of juice
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- Figure 69: Juice statement agreement, by area, February 2017
- Demographically, Healthy Believers and Sugar Concern consumers are opposites
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- Figure 70: Statement agreement, by age and gender, by income, February 2017
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- Figure 71: Statement agreement, by age and HH income, February 2017
- Juice is not a staple drink for Sugar Concern consumers
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- Figure 72: Juice statement agreement, by juice segmentation, February 2017
- Parents are more likely to doubt the healthfulness of juice
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- Figure 73: Juice statement agreement, by parental status under 45, February 2017
Juice Packaging Appeal
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- Consumers prefer plastic packaging
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- Figure 74: Juice packaging appeal, February 2017
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- Figure 75: Purchase intent of still juice by packaging material, March 2016-March 2017
- Glass packaging appeals to older consumers
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- Figure 76: Juice packaging appeal, February 2017
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Mintel Menu Insights
Appendix – The Market
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- Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of 100% juice, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 78: Total US retail sales and forecast of juice drinks, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 79: Total US retail sales and forecast of smoothies, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 80: US supermarket sales of juice and juice drinks, at current prices, 2011-16
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- Figure 81: US convenience store sales of juice and juice drinks, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 82: US sales of juice and juice drinks through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
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Appendix – Correspondence Analysis
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- Methodology
Appendix – CHAID Analysis
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- Methodology
Appendix – TURF Analysis
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- Methodology
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- Figure 83: TURF Analysis – Appealing juice attributes, by juice type drinkers, February 2017
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