Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Cakes post value growth despite war on sugar
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- Figure 1: Forecast of UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, 2011-21
- Small cakes dominate, celebration cakes grow
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- Figure 2: UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, by segment, 2015 and 2016
- Pressures for sugar reduction mount
- Home baking remains popular
- Brexit spells end of deflation and growing real consumer incomes
- Companies and brands
- Own-label grows market share
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- Figure 3: Leading brands’ shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- NPD targets bites and on-the-go
- Adspend dips in 2016
- The consumer
- Cakes remain a popular, but rare, treat
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- Figure 4: Frequency of eating cakes/cake bars, by cake type, December 2016
- Self-treating fuels cake purchases
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- Figure 5: Reasons for buying cakes and cake bars, December 2016
- Sizeable interest in low-sugar cakes
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- Figure 6: Factors that would encourage increased usage of cakes/cake bars, December 2016
- Taste trumps healthiness for most
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- Figure 7: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, December 2016
- Cakes enjoy a positive image
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- Figure 8: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with different types of sweet treats, December 2016
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Taste trumps healthiness for most cake users, marked openness to portion control
- The facts
- The implications
- Scope for cakes to harness ‘positive nutrition’ given interest from users
- The facts
- The implications
- Self-treating fuels cake purchases but is rarely seen in marketing
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Value growth despite war on sugar
- Inflation expected to support value sales
- Small cakes segment continues to dominate
- Celebration cakes see strong growth
- Sugar remains in the spotlight
- Brexit spells end of deflation and growing real consumer incomes
Market Size, Forecast and Segmentation
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- Value growth despite war on sugar
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- Figure 9: UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, 2011-21
- Inflation expected to support value sales
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- Figure 10: Forecast of UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, 2011-21
- Forecast methodology
- Small cakes segment continues to dominate
- Celebration cakes see strongest growth
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- Figure 11: UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, by segment, 2015 and 2016
Market Drivers
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- Sugar remains in the spotlight
- The Childhood Obesity Strategy sets sugar reduction targets
- Low-sugar cakes remain rare
- High openness to smaller packs
- Gluten-free continues to grow
- Raw ingredients hope to bolster health perceptions
- Home baking remains popular
- Appeal of cake decorating
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- Figure 12: Frequency of baking cakes at home, December 2016
- Cakes face steep competition from other sweet treats
- An ageing population unlikely to benefit cake sales
- Brexit spells end of deflation and growing real consumer incomes
- Cost pressures prompt price rises
- Household incomes set to be squeezed
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Own-label grows market share
- Premier Foods sees mixed results
- Snacking formats support growth for Thorntons and Soreen
- Private label continues to lead NPD
- NPD targets bites and on-the-go
- Adspend dips in 2016
Market Share
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- Own-label grows market share
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- Figure 13: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK cakes and cake bars market, by value, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- Premier Foods sees mixed results
- McVitie’s sales fall
- Snacking formats support growth for Thorntons and Soreen
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Private label continues to lead NPD
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- Figure 14: Share of new product launches in the UK cakes, pastries and sweet baked goods market*, by company (sorted by 2016), 2012-16
- Premier Foods extends Cadbury Cake brand to appeal to young
- Coco Pops launches Coco Bakes
- Cake bites trend continues
- Cake bites cater to health concerns and sharing occasions
- Soreen, McVitie’s and Premier among recent bite-size NPD
- Brands look to the on-the-go and impulse markets
- Mr Kipling and Mini Rolls launch in twin packs
- McVitie’s and Soreen look to on-the-go
- Seasonal activity remains high
- Cakes “fit for the Queen”
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Adspend dips in 2016
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- Figure 15: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes and cake bars, 2013-16
- Premier Foods unveils new campaign for Mr Kipling, supports Mini Rolls
- New campaign for Mr Kipling
- Mr Kipling partakes in ITV’s 'Queen's 90th Birthday Ad Break'
- Summer campaign for Cadbury Mini Rolls
- An ‘Absolutely Fabulous’ partnership for Cadbury Amaze Bites
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- Figure 16: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on cakes and cake bars, by top 8 advertisers (sorted by 2016), 2013-16
- Mondelēz and Kellogg's support kids’ ranges
- New TV advertising push for Soreen Lunchbox Loaves
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Cakes remain a popular, but rare, treat
- Single-portion cakes are top choice
- Self-treating is top reason for cake purchases
- Cakes are widely chosen as a snack
- Sizeable interest in low-sugar cakes
- ‘Positive nutrition’ can resonate in cakes
- Taste trumps healthiness for most, openness to smaller portions
- Cakes enjoy a positive image
Usage of Cakes and Cake Bars
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- Cakes remain a popular, but rare, treat
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- Figure 17: Frequency of eating cakes/cake bars, by cake type, December 2016
- Single-portion and smaller cakes most popular
- Cakes from in-store bakeries eaten by 57%
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- Figure 18: Frequency of eating cakes/cake bars baked in-store, December 2016
- Under-35s and families are core user groups
- Workplace “cake culture”
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- Figure 19: Usage of cakes/cake bars at least once a week, by type, by employment status, December 2016
Reasons for Buying Cakes and Cake Bars
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- Self-treating fuels cake purchases
- 18% buy cakes for a mood boost
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- Figure 20: Reasons for buying cakes and cake bars, December 2016
- 40% buy cakes to snack on
- ‘Convenient’ snack factor should benefit individual cakes
- Everyday occasions are key for cakes
Factors Encouraging Increased Usage of Cakes and Cake Bars
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- Sizeable interest in low-sugar cakes
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- Figure 21: Factors that would encourage increased usage of cakes/cake bars, December 2016
- Limited scope for sweeteners in cakes
- Sugar alternatives enjoy a better-for-you image…
- …but also come with challenges
- Cakes with benefits appeal
- ‘Positive nutrition’ trend
- Cakes offering nutrients appeal to one in five
Attitudes towards Cakes and Cake Bars
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- Taste trumps healthiness for the majority
- Averseness to recipe changes poses a challenge to sugar reduction
- Openness to “less but better”
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- Figure 22: Attitudes towards cakes and cake bars, December 2016
- Breakfast cakes appeal to many
- Breakfast cakes would appeal widely
- Soreen is among rare UK examples
- Seasonal cakes attract interest
- In-store personalisation a good fit for seasonal flavours
Qualities Associated with Types of Sweet Treats
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- Cakes enjoy a positive image
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- Figure 23: Correspondence analysis of qualities associated with different types of sweet treats, December 2016
- Whole/large cakes: good for sharing but not convenient
- Only 26% view individual cakes as an everyday treat
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- Figure 24: Qualities associated with different types of sweet treats, December 2016
- Methodology
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecast methodology
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- Figure 25: Total UK retail value sales of cakes and cake bars, best- and worst-case forecast, 2016-21
Appendix – Market Segmentation
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- Figure 26: UK value retail sales of small cakes and cake bars, by sub-segment, 2015 and 2016
- Figure 27: UK value retail sales of large cakes, by sub-segment, 2015 and 2016
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Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 28: Selected claims’ share of new product launches in the UK cakes, pastries and sweet baked goods market*, 2012-16
- Figure 29: Share of new product launches in the UK cakes, pastries and sweet baked goods market*, by launch type, 2012-16
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- Figure 30: Share of new product launches in the UK cakes, pastries and sweet baked goods market*, by brands and own-label, 2012-16
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