Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Crossrail and HS2 accounted for nearly a third of government funding for the railway industry in 2015/16
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- Figure 1: Government railway funding, 2012-16
- Network Rail spending on renewal schemes is higher than the allowance set by rail regulator during the first two years of CP5
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- Figure 2: Rail renewal expenditure by asset, 2015/16
- Network Rail encounters major difficulties in delivering enhancement schemes in 2014/15, prompting a review and re-plan of the programme
- Spending on rail enhancements up by 10% in 2015/16
- Average age of rolling stock rises to 21 years in 2015/16
- Some 30 major rail projects currently in infrastructure pipeline
- HS2 set to be the largest rail infrastructure project over the next two decades
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- Figure 3: Cost of enhancement projects during CP5, 2014/15-2018/19
- Market factors
- Network Rail’s funding and delivery outputs are agreed in five-year blocks called control periods
- Increase in passenger journeys to drive investment in rail infrastructure and capacity
- Recommendations set out in Shaw report could result in biggest shake-up of Network Rail since privatisation
- Companies
- What we think
Key Insights
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- What are the key recommendations in the Shaw report, which looks into the future shape and financing of Network Rail?
- What have been the key developments since the publication of Shaw report?
- What are the key changes in the re-plan of the CP5 enhancement programme following Sir Peter Hendy’s Review in 2015?
- How is the UK passenger rolling stock fleet expected to develop?
Introduction
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- Definitions
- Methodology
- Abbreviations
- Market positioning
UK Economy
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- Overview
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- Figure 4: UK GDP quarterly development, 2003-16
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- Figure 5: UK GDP in economic downturns and recoveries since 1979
- Inflation
- Interest rates
- House prices
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- Figure 6: UK House price changes, 2004-16
- Consumer spending
- Manufacturing
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- Figure 7: UK manufacturing, 2014-16
- Business investment
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- Figure 8: UK GFCF 2003-16
- Imports
- Exports
Market Factors
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- Key Points
- Rail network funding and regulation
- Sir Peter Hendy’s re-plan for Network Rail’s enhancement programme 2014-19
- The Shaw report
- Drivers of investment in rail industry
- Railways Act 2005
- High Speed Two (HS2) and proposed major schemes
Rail Finance
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- Key Points
- Overview
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- Figure 9: Government railway funding, by type, 2012-16
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- Figure 10: Private investment in railways, by type, 2012-16
Infrastructure Investment
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- Key Points
- Introduction
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- Figure 11: Rail infrastructure in Great Britain, 2012-16
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- Figure 12: Rail infrastructure in Great Britain, 2012-16
- Figure 13: Major rail infrastructure projects delivered during CP4, 2009-14
- Network Rail embarks on largest rail enhancement and investment programme in CP5 2014-19
- Enhancement milestones in the first two years of CP5
- Capital expenditure
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- Figure 14: Rail infrastructure renewals, enhancements & maintenance expenditure in Great Britain, 2011-16
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- Figure 15: Rail infrastructure renewals, enhancements & maintenance expenditure in Great Britain, 2012-16
- Expenditure analysis
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- Figure 16: Renewal expenditure by asset, 2015 and 2016
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- Figure 17: Private sector investment in track and signalling, 2012-16
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- Figure 18: Private sector investment in stations, 2012-16
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- Figure 19: Analysis of enhancement expenditure in England and Wales, by type, 2010-14
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- Figure 20: Analysis of enhancement expenditure on non-PR08 funded schemes by type, 2010-14
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- Figure 21: Analysis of enhancement expenditure in Scotland, by type, 2010-14
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- Figure 22: Analysis of enhancement expenditure in Great Britain, by type, 2015-16
Rolling Stock
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- Key Points
- Introduction
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- Figure 23: Average age of rolling stock, by sector, 2012-16
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- Figure 24: Average age of rolling stock, by sector, 2012-16
- Figure 25: Average age of rolling stock, by company, 2012-16
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- Figure 26: Number of passenger journeys, by sector, 2012-16
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- Figure 27: Share of passenger journeys, by sector, 2015/16
- Figure 28: Distance covered by freight trains, 2012-16
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- Figure 29: Rolling stock parc, as of March 2016
- Capital expenditure
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- Figure 30: Private sector rolling stock investment in Great Britain, 2012-16
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- Figure 31: Private sector rolling stock investment in Great Britain, 2012-16
Supply Sources
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- Key Points
- Production
- Overview
- Hitachi and Bombardier Transportation only major train manufacturers with UK plants
- Bombardier Transportation UK
- Hitachi Rail Europe
- CAF set to open UK assembly plant in 2018
- Alstom also considering UK manufacturing if firm wins major UK contracts
- UK production of rolling stock set for further growth
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- Figure 32: UK production of locomotives, rolling stock and other equipment, 2011-15
- Segmentation
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- Figure 33: Segmentation of the UK production of locomotives, rolling stock and other equipment, by type, 2011-15
- Imports
- Overview
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- Figure 34: UK imports of locomotives, rolling stock and other equipment, 2012-16
- Segmentation
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- Figure 35: Segmentation of UK imports of locomotives, rolling stock and other equipment, by type, 2012-16
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- Figure 36: UK imports of locomotives, rolling stock and other equipment, by type, 2016
- Exports
- Overview
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- Figure 37: UK exports of locomotives, rolling stock and other equipment, 2012-16
- Segmentation
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- Figure 38: Segmentation of UK exports of locomotives, rolling stock and other equipment, by type, 2012-16
Investment Profiles
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- Key Points
- Introduction
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- Figure 39: Train operating companies, as of February 2017
- Train Operating Companies
- Abellio Greater Anglia
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- Figure 40: Key statistics for Greater Anglia, 2014-16
- Arriva Trains Wales
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- Figure 41: Key statistics for Arriva Trains Wales, 2014-16
- c2c
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- Figure 42: Key statistics for c2c, 2014-16
- Chiltern Railways
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- Figure 43: Key statistics for Chiltern Railways, 2014-16
- Cross Country
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- Figure 44: Key statistics for Cross Country, 2014-16
- Virgin Trains East Coast (formerly East Coast)
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- Figure 45: Key statistics for Virgin Trains East Coast, 2014-16
- East Midlands Trains
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- Figure 46: Key Statistics for East Midlands Trains, 2014-16
- Eurostar
- Govia Thameslink Railway (formerly First Capital Connect)
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- Figure 47: Key statistics for Govia Thameslink Railways, 2013-15
- Great Western Railway
- New fleet of Intercity Express Trains to be introduced from 2017
- Great Western electrification project to be delayed
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- Figure 48: Key statistics for Great Western, 2014-16
- First Hull Trains
- Abellio ScotRail (formerly First ScotRail)
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- Figure 49: Key statistics for Abellio ScotRail, 2014-16
- TransPennine Express
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- Figure 50: Key Statistics for TransPennine Express, 2014-16
- Grand Central
- Heathrow Connect
- Heathrow Express
- London Midland
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- Figure 51: Key statistics for London Midland, 2014-16
- London Overground
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- Figure 52: Key statistics for London Overground, 2014-16
- Merseyrail
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- Figure 53: Key statistics for Merseyrail, 2013-15
- Northern Rail
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- Figure 54: Key statistics for Northern Rail, 2014-16
- North Yorkshire Moors Railway
- Southeastern
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- Figure 55: Key Statistics for Southeastern, 2014-16
- South West Trains
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- Figure 56: Key Statistics for South West Trains, 2016
- TFL Rail
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- Figure 57: Key Statistics for TFL Rail, 2014-16
- Virgin Trains West Coast
- New rail franchise to be introduced combining InterCity West Coast services with High Speed 2 services
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- Figure 58: Key statistics for Virgin Trains West Coast, 2014-16
- West Coast Railway
- Freight Operators
- Colas Rail
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- Figure 59: Key statistics for Colas Rail, 2016
- Direct Rail Services
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- Figure 60: Key statistics for Direct Rail Services, 2016
- DB Cargo UK (formerly DB Schenker Rail)
- Freightliner Group
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- Figure 61: Key Statistics for Freightliner in the UK, 2015
- GB Railfreight
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- Figure 62: Key statistics for GB Railfreight, 2016
- Mendip Rail
- Rolling Stock Operating Companies
- Angel Trains
- Porterbrook Leasing Company
- Eversholt Rail Group
- QW Rail Leasing
- Network Rail
- London & Continental Railways/HS1
- High Speed 2 Ltd
Supply Industry Structure
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- Key Points
- Industry Development
- Hitachi starts production at new UK manufacturing plant in 2016, joining Bombardier as the country’s only rolling stock manufacturers
- Spanish rolling stock manufacturer CAF plans to open UK assembly plant in 2018
- Alstom also considering UK manufacturing if firm wins major UK contracts
- Industry structure
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- Figure 63: Analysis of the changes in the structure of the railway & tramway rolling stock manufacturing industry, 2012-16
- Structure by employment
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- Figure 64: Analysis of the employment structure of the railway & tramway rolling stock manufacturing industry, 2015-16
- Structure by turnover
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- Figure 65: Analysis of the financial structure of the railway & tramway rolling stock manufacturing industry, 2015-16
- Company profiles
Alstom Transport UK
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- Company strategy:
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- Figure 66: Financial analysis of Alstom Transport UK, 2014-16
Bombardier Transportation UK
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- Figure 67: Financial analysis of Bombardier Transportation UK, 2011-15
- Company strategy and outlook:
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Amec Foster Wheeler
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- Rail business
- Company outlook:
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- Figure 68: Financial analysis of AMEC Foster Wheeler, 2011-15
Amey/Amey Rail
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- Company strategy and outlook:
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- Figure 69: Financial analysis of Amey UK, 2011-15
- Amey Rail
- Company performance:
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- Figure 70: Financial analysis of Amey Rail, 2011-15
Angel Trains
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- Figure 71: Financial analysis of Angel Trains, 2011-15
- Company strategy and outlook:
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Balfour Beatty Group
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- Balfour Beatty announces several profit warnings during 2014 and 2015 amid major challenges from construction contracts
- Recent rail sector developments
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- Figure 72: Financial analysis of Balfour Beatty, 2011-15
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- Figure 73: Financial analysis of Balfour Beatty by segment, 2014-15
Knorr-Bremse Group
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- Figure 74: Financial analysis of Knorr-Bremse Rail Systems (UK), 2011-15
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Siemens Rail Automation Holdings
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- Figure 75: Financial analysis of Siemens Rail Automation Holdings, 2011-15
- Company strategy and review:
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Babcock Rail
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- Figure 76: Financial analysis of Babcock Rail, 2012-16
- Company review and outlook:
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Network Rail
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- Network Rail is delivering its biggest ever investment programme
- Network Rail encounters major difficulties in delivering enhancement programme at the start of CP5
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- Figure 77: Financial analysis of Network Rail, 2012-16
- Company review and outlook:
Eversholt Rail (UK)
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- Figure 78: Financial analysis of Eversholt Rail (UK), 2011-15
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Porterbrook Leasing Company
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- Recent company activity:
- Company strategy:
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- Figure 79: Financial analysis of Porterbrook Leasing Company, 2011-15
Hitachi Rail Europe
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- Intercity trains
- Commuter
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- Figure 80: Financial analysis of Hitachi Rail Europe, 2012-16
- Company strategy:
Forecast
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- Key Points
- Market size
- ORR’s original funding settlement for CP5
- ORR introduces new targets for Network Rail’s asset management for CP5
- Move towards framework agreements during CP5
- Sir Peter Hendy’s Review and re-plan for CP5 enhancement programme
- Funding for CP5 enhancement schemes to be enhanced by £2.5 billion
- Network Rail implements Enhancements Improvement Programme
- The Bowe Review
- The Shaw Report
- Developments since the publication of the Shaw report
- Infrastructure
- Rail infrastructure projects pipeline
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- Figure 81: Rail infrastructure pipeline, 2017-21
- Figure 82: Rail infrastructure projects pipeline, 2016
- Additional funding for rail infrastructure announced in 2016 autumn statement
- High Speed Two (HS2) and proposed major schemes
- Network Rail renewal expenditure in CP5
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- Figure 83: Forecast rail renewal expenditure for CP5
- Enhancements expenditure in CP5
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- Figure 84: Cost of enhancement projects during CP5
- Crossrail
- Thameslink Programme
- Electrification schemes
- Other committed schemes
- Other named schemes
- HLOS capacity metric schemes
- Borders
- Other Scottish projects
- Rolling stock
- Long term passenger rolling stock strategy
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- Figure 85: Fleet size requirements for passenger fleet under a low growth forecast, 2019-45
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- Figure 86: Fleet size requirements for passenger fleet under a medium growth forecast, 2019-45
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- Figure 87: Fleet size requirements for passenger fleet under a high growth forecast, 2019-45
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- Figure 88: Role of electric rolling stock under the medium growth forecast, 2016-45
Further Sources & Contacts
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- Institution of Railway Signal Engineers
- Light Rail Transit Association
- Office of Rail Regulation
- Rail Delivery Group (formerly ATOC)
- Railway Industry Association
- Trade magazines
- European Railway Review
- International Railway Journal
- IRSE News
- Modern Railways
- Rail
- The Rail Engineer
- Railnews
- Rail Professional
- RailStaff
- Rail Technology Magazine
- Railway Gazette International
- Railway Strategies
- Trade exhibitions
- Traffex 2017
- Railtex 2017
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