Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Sales stagnate
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2011-21
- Consumption frequency drops
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- Figure 2: Weekly red meat consumption, 2016-17
- Possible need to reintroduce consumers to red meat
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- Figure 3: Consumption, by opinions of red meat, December 2016
- The opportunities
- Value in fresher options
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- Figure 4: Opinions about red meat, by gender and age, December 2016
- Quality and freshness appeal to Hispanic consumers
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- Figure 5: Opinions about purchasing red meat, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
- Natural, organic resonate with Hispanic consumers
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- Figure 6: Red meat natural attributes, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Oversupply and reduced demand impact red meat sales
- Red meat problems impacting beef and pork
- Consumers turning to poultry and seafood
Market Size and Forecast
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- Commodity volatility takes a toll on red meat
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- Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2011-21
Market Breakdown
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- Beef stagnates, pork plummets
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- Figure 9: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by segment, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
- Stagnant channel sales
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
- Accounting for inflation, beef sales to steadily fall
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of beef, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Roller-coaster future for pork sales
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- Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of pork, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Sales of other red meat set to stagnate
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- Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of other red meat, at current prices, 2011-21
Market Perspective
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- Hispanic consumers more likely to consume red meat
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- Figure 14: Any red meat consumption, December 2016
- Figure 15: Generations, by percentage of Hispanic origin, 2017
- Poultry’s more positive perception; FDA recommends fish
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- Figure 16: Protein associations, all proteins, August 2016
Market Factors
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- Severe sales declines partially explained by price drops
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- Figure 17: Changes in Consumer Food Price Indexes, 2012-17
- Health concerns weigh large
- Environmental issues potentially impacting consumption
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- Figure 18: Weekly red meat consumption, 2016-17
- Households with kids tend to consume red meat
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- Figure 19: Households, by presence of own children, 2006-16
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Declines for all leading red meat brands
- Potential for preservative-free
- Variety may expand appeal
Brand Sales of Packaged Red Meat
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- Tyson maintains brand lead, but private label leads market share
- Brand sales of packaged red meat
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- Figure 20: MULO sales of packaged red meat, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Figure 21: MULO market share of packaged red meat, by leading companies, 52-weeks ending Oct. 30, 2016
What’s Working?
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- Potential for preservative-free
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- Figure 22: US red meat launches, by date published, by claim, 2012-16
- Figure 23: Meat and lunch meat introductions with free-from claims, 2016
What’s Struggling?
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- Consumption declines lead to significant sales declines, even among most popular brands
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- Figure 24: US red meat introductions, by date published, private label versus branded, 2012-16
- Figure 25: Private label red meat introductions, 2016
What’s Next?
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- Variety of meats may increase appeal
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- Figure 26: Any red meat consumption, December 2016
- Sustainability, environmental issues distinguish certain brands
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- Figure 27: Packaged meat launches with natural or environmental claim, 2012-17
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- Figure 28: Sustainable, environmentally conscious red meat introductions, 2016
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Prices, though at their lowest in years, remain an issue
- White consumers appear to be turning to protein sources other than beef
- Weekly consumption of whole ham falls
- Consumption of other red meats varies strongly by region
- Health concerns deterring some consumers
- Supermarkets most likely location for purchasing
- Younger consumers less likely to appreciate meat's nutrition
Consumption of Red Meat
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- Consumers eating red meat, though not as regularly
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- Figure 29: Consumption, December 2016
- Possible need to reintroduce consumers to red meat
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- Figure 30: Consumption, by opinions of red meat, December 2016
- Weekly users more likely to purchase at mass merchandisers
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- Figure 31: Consumption, by red meat source, December 2016
- Regular meat eaters appear interested in various cuisines
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- Figure 32: Consumption, by international food consumption, Mexican and Italian, December 2016
Beef Consumers
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- Sizable percentage refuse frozen beef options, but fewer Millennials
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- Figure 33: Beef consumption, December 2016
- Younger consumers utilize frozen almost as often as refrigerated red meats
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- Figure 34: Beef consumption, by generations, December 2016
- Weekly consumption drops for White consumers
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- Figure 35: Beef consumption, by race, December 2016
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- Figure 36: Beef consumption, by type, by race, Spring 2016
- Higher-income consumers eating meat less often
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- Figure 37: Beef consumption, by household income, December 2016
- Hispanic Millennials more likely to eat frozen
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- Figure 38: Beef consumption, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
Pork Consumers
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- Decline in pork consumption
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- Figure 39: Pork consumption, December 2016
- Parents much more likely to seek whole ham options
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- Figure 40: Pork consumption, by parental status by gender with children in household, December 2016
- Hispanic Millennials seeking whole ham options
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- Figure 41: Pork consumption, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
Consumption of Other Red Meat
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- Other red meat has room to grow
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- Figure 42: Other red meat consumption, December 2016
- Millennials notably more likely to turn to other red meats
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- Figure 43: Other red meat consumption, any consumption in past six months, by generation, December 2016
- Price plays a role in consumption of other red meats
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- Figure 44: Other red meat consumption, any consumption in past six months, by household income, December 2016
- Regionally, consumers may be unaware of certain other red meats
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- Figure 45: Other red meat consumption, any consumption in past six months, by region, December 2016
Deterrents to Red Meat Consumption
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- Health issues appear to be deterring consumption
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- Figure 46: Red meat deterrents, December 2016
- Health fears impacting older consumers
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- Figure 47: Health-related red meat deterrents, by generation, December 2016
- One in five blacks eating less meat to lose weight
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- Figure 48: Health-related red meat deterrents, by race, December 2016
- Price strongly deterring Hispanic consumers
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- Figure 49: Red meat deterrents, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
Purchase Location for Packaged Red Meat
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- Most red meat purchased at supermarkets
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- Figure 50: Red meat source, December 2016
- Online appears to offer opportunity
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- Figure 51: Red meat source via online/subscription service, by age and gender, December 2016
- Purchase factors vary considerably from supermarket to online
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- Figure 52: Red meat source (supermarket and online/subscription), by red meat attributes, December 2016
- Lower-income households turning to mass merchandisers for red meat
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- Figure 53: Red meat source, by age and gender, December 2016
- Hispanic Millennials purchasing at a variety of locations
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- Figure 54: Red meat source, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
- Health, natural claims resonate more with natural/specialty shoppers
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- Figure 55: Red meat source (supermarket and natural/specialty), by red meat attributes, December 2016
Repertoire Analysis of Purchase Locations
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- Consumers trusting relatively few store types for red meat
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- Figure 56: Repertoire analysis, types of stores where red meat is purchased, December 2016
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- Figure 57: Repertoire analysis, types of stores where red meat is purchased, by demographics, December 2016
- Appearance factors strongly
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- Figure 58: Repertoire of red meat source, by red meat attributes, December 2016
Opinions about Red Meat
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- Youngest consumers the least likely to appreciate red meat
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- Figure 59: Opinions about red meat, December 2016
- Perceived value in fresher options
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- Figure 60: Opinions about red meat, by gender and age, December 2016
- Consumers seeking expert guidance
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- Figure 61: Opinions about red meat confusion, by gender and age, December 2016
- Quality and freshness appeal to Hispanic consumers
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- Figure 62: Opinions about purchasing red meat, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
Important Red Meat Attributes
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- Appearance matters, but other attributes factor strongly for Millennials
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- Figure 63: Red meat attributes, December 2016
- Natural confusion could lead to organic appreciation
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- Figure 64: Natural red meat attributes, by age and gender, December 2016
- Natural, organic options resonate strongly with Hispanic consumers
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- Figure 65: Red meat natural attributes, by Hispanic origin, December 2016
- Appearance, natural appeal
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- Figure 66: TURF Analysis – Red meat attributes, December 2016
Purchasing Red Meat
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- Price, lack of awareness may impact some consumer choices
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- Figure 67: Opinions about purchasing red meat, December 2016
- Expense, a leading deterrent to greater red meat consumption
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- Figure 68: Opinions about purchasing red meat, by household income, December 2016
Descriptors of Red Meat
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- How consumers regard red meats
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- Figure 69: Red meat description, December 2016
- Butcher shop brands could leverage “natural”
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- Figure 70: Butcher shop red meat description, by generation, December 2016
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- Figure 71: Supermarket red meat (refrigerated) description, by generation, December 2016
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- Figure 72: Supermarket red meat (frozen) description, by generation, December 2016
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 73: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 74: Total US retail sales and forecast of packaged red meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 75: Total US retail sales and forecast of beef, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 76: Total US retail sales and forecast of pork, at current prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 77: Total US retail sales and forecast of other red meat, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 78: Total US retail sales of packaged red meat, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
- Figure 79: US supermarket sales of packaged red meat, at current prices, 2011-16
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- Figure 80: US sales of packaged red meat through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 81: MULO sales of beef, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
- Figure 82: MULO sales of pork, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52 weeks 2015 and 2016
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Appendix – Consumer
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- Figure 83: Food statement agreement, any agree, by gender, Spring 2016
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- Figure 84: Food statement agreement, any agree, by age, Spring 2016
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- Figure 85: Food statement agreement, any agree, by race, Spring 2016
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- Figure 86: Food statement agreement, any agree, by region, Spring 2016
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- Figure 87: Meat/poultry consumption, by gender, Spring 2016
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- Figure 88: Meat/poultry consumption, by age, Spring 2016
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- Figure 89: Meat/poultry consumption, by race, Spring 2016
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- Figure 90: Meat/poultry consumption, by region, Spring 2016
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- Figure 91: Meat/poultry consumption, by Hispanic origin, Spring 2016
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- Figure 92: Beef consumption, by type, by gender, Spring 2016
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- Figure 93: Beef consumption, by type, by age, Spring 2016
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- Figure 94: Beef consumption, by type, by region, Spring 2016
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- Figure 95: Beef consumption, by type, by Hispanic origin, Spring 2016
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Appendix – Correspondence Analysis Methodology
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- Figure 96: Red meat description, December 2016
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Appendix – TURF Analysis Methodology
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- Figure 97: Table – TURF Analysis – Red meat attributes, December 2016
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