Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Strong growth in the final quarter
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- Figure 1: Retail sales growth and inflation, 2011-16
- Black Friday – Bigger, but disillusion setting in
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- Figure 2: Retail sales in December as a proportion of the full year, 2010-16
- Consumer confidence and the economic outlook
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- Figure 3: Mintel: Consumer confidence tracker, January 2009-January 2017
- Christmas trading performance
- Sales in December
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- Figure 4: Main retail sectors: Year on year growth in December 2016
- Non-store sales lead growth
- Discounters, convenience and online lead growth in food
- Morrisons the best performing of the big four
- Online pureplays lead in clothing
- M&S enjoys growth in clothing sales
- B&M Bargains leads growth for the mixed goods retailers
- Department stores boosted by e-commerce
- Dixons Carphone leverages stores to deliver strong results
- The consumer
- Black Friday bigger than last year
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- Figure 5: Attitudes to buying gifts in the Black Friday/Cyber Monday promotions, Christmas 2016
- Gift buying and online
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- Figure 6: How gifts were bought, Christmas 2016
- Almost every group spent more than last year
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- Figure 7: Amounts spent on Christmas gifts, by broad spending band, Christmas 2016
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- Figure 8: Spending relative to last Christmas, Christmas 2016
- Online bigger than in-store for gift buying
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- Figure 9: Reasons for buying more gifts in-store, Christmas 2016
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- Figure 10: Reasons for buying more gifts online, Christmas 2016
- Attitudes to gift buying
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- Figure 11: Attitudes to buying Christmas gifts, Christmas 2016
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Pricing – time to restore trust
- The facts
- The implications
- Why was Christmas so strong?
- The facts
- The implications
- Prospects for 2017
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Strong growth in the final quarter
- Black Friday
- Consumer confidence and the economic outlook
Christmas 2016
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- Retail sales up 7.1% in December
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- Figure 12: Retail sales growth and inflation, 2011-16
- Why was Q4 so strong?
- Importance of December
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- Figure 13: Retail sales in December as a proportion of the full year, 2010-16
- Black Friday – Past the peak?
- Undermining pricing credibility
- Signs that interest is waning
- Ignoring Black Friday with impunity
- Different for electricals
- How big was Black Friday in 2016?
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- Figure 14: November as proportion of all retail sales, 2010-16
- The economy
- Consumer confidence
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- Figure 15: Mintel: Consumer confidence tracker, January 2009-January 2017
- Real incomes
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- Figure 16: Inflation and earnings growth, 2012-16
- Inflation beginning to move up
- Consumer credit – Worrying growth
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- Figure 17: UK consumer credit (excl mortgages), 2008-16
- The housing market stable
- Outlook for 2017 – Uncertainty rules
- Online
- Rapid growth
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- Figure 18: Online share of all retail sales, 2007-16
- Store based vs pure player
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- Figure 19: Store based and pure player online retailers, share of all online sales, 2009-16
- Growth by sector
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- Figure 20: Growth in online sales, by retail sector, 2016
- Online sales by broad sector
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- Figure 21: Online sales, by type of retailer, 2016
- Where next?
Christmas Trading Performance
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- Sector data
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- Figure 22: Sector sales, December 2016
- Figure 23: Major retail sectors, sales growth December and 4th quarter 2016
- Food retailers
- Benchmarks
- The companies
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- Figure 24: Food retailers: Christmas performance, 2016
- Where next?
- Clothing and footwear retailers
- Benchmarks
- The companies
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- Figure 25: Clothing retailers: UK Christmas performance, 2016
- Where next?
- Mixed goods retailers (including department stores)
- Benchmarks
- The companies
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- Figure 26: Department stores and other mixed goods retailers: UK Christmas performance, 2016
- Where next?
- Other sectors – Homewares, home shopping, miscellaneous
- Benchmarks
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- Figure 27: Other stores: December and fourth quarter performance, 2016
- The companies
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- Figure 28: Home and other miscellaneous retailers’ Christmas performance, 2016
- What next?
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Black Friday bigger than last year
- Almost every group spent more than last year
- Online and in-store used equally…
- …but more gifts now bought online
- Attitudes to gift buying
Black Friday
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- All Black Friday demand
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- Figure 29: Buyers of goods during Black Friday promotions, November 2016
- Black Friday and electricals
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- Figure 30: Electrical goods buyers over Black Friday, 2015 and 2016
- An online event
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- Figure 31: Black Friday purchases, in-store and online, November 2016
- Attitudes towards buying on Black Friday
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- Figure 32: Attitudes to Black Friday, December 2016
- Reasons for not buying
- Black Friday and Christmas gift buying
- Number of gift buyers
- Attitudes to Black Friday
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- Figure 33: Attitudes to buying gifts in the Black Friday/Cyber Monday promotions, Christmas 2016
Who Bought Gifts and How They Were Bought
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- Online vs in-store – Numbers of customers
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- Figure 34: How gifts were bought, Christmas 2016
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- Figure 35: Profile of those who shop for gifts, by delivery, Christmas 2016
- Online vs in-store by sales
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- Figure 36: Where most gifts were bought, in-store vs online, Christmas 2016
- Device used
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- Figure 37: Devices used to buy online, Christmas 2016
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- Figure 38: Number of different devices used for online purchasing, Christmas 2016
Amount Spent on Christmas Gifts
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- Figure 39: Amounts spent on Christmas gifts, by broad spending band, Christmas 2016
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Spending Relative to 2015
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- Figure 40: Spending relative to last Christmas, Christmas 2016
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- Figure 41: Spending relative to last year, by amount spent this year, Christmas 2016
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Why Do People Buy More Gifts in Stores?
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- Figure 42: Reasons for buying more gifts in-store, Christmas 2016
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- Figure 43: Profile of those agreeing with the in-store shopper attitudes, Christmas 2016
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Why Do People Buy More Gifts Online?
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- Convenience is key
- Price - perception and reality
- Delivery passes of growing importance
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- Figure 44: Reasons for buying more gifts online, Christmas 2016
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- Figure 45: Profile of those agreeing with the online shopper attitudes, Christmas 2016
Attitudes to Buying Gifts
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- Figure 46: Attitudes to buying Christmas gifts, Christmas 2016
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- Figure 47: Attitudes to buying Christmas gifts, difference between those who agree and those who disagree, Christmas 2016
- Prices – Time to restore trust
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Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Financial definitions
- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
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