Table of Contents
Overview
-
- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
-
- The issues
- The decline of grocery prices entices consumers to cook at home
-
- Figure 1: Food sales at home and away from home, November 2015-September 2016
- New dining out segments create new forms of competition
-
- Figure 2: Restaurant segment visitation, September 2016
- The service equation
-
- Figure 3: Restaurant concepts consumers want to see more of in 2017, September 2016
- The opportunities
- Breweries become a destination
-
- Figure 4: Visitation to a local brewery/bar, September 2016
- The merging of coffee shop and bar
-
- Figure 5: Interest in seeing more coffeehouses serving alcohol at night in 2017, by age, September 2016
- Consumers plan to seek out more social dining experiences
-
- Figure 6: Dining out behavior, September 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
-
- iGens are becoming a generation to watch
- Millennials are putting off marriage and staying in cities
- Segments are blurring across industries
Market Size and Forecast
-
- Restaurant sales expected to grow in a shifting landscape
-
- Figure 7: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2011-21
-
- Figure 8: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 9: Total US revenues and forecast of full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at inflation prices, 2011-21
Market Breakdown
-
- LSRs predicted to grow at a slightly higher pace than FSRs
-
- Figure 10: Total US revenues for restaurants and other eating places, by segment share, at current prices, 2016
- Figure 11: Total US revenues and fan chart forecast of limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2011-21
-
- Figure 12: Total US Revenues and fan chart forecast of full service restaurants, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 13: Total US revenues and forecast for restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
Market Factors
-
- Consumer confidence
-
- Figure 14: Consumer sentiment index, November 2015-November 2016
- Millennials continue to shape the dining out scene
-
- Figure 15: Median age at first marriage, by gender, 2005-15
- Restaurants starting to take note of iGen preferences
-
- Figure 16: Population by generation, 2017
- Figure 17: Generations by Hispanic origin, 2017
Market Perspective
-
- Grocery store prices versus restaurant prices
-
- Figure 18: Food sales at home and away from home, November 2015-September 2016
- Industries step outside of their core
Key Trends – What You Need to Know
-
- Travel and food: A perfect marriage
- Legacy chains are struggling
- On a TV near you
What’s Working?
-
- Will travel for food
- Craft beer and food find a common ground
- International fast casual growth
What’s Struggling?
-
- Legacy chains
- Traditional entrees
What’s Next?
-
- The flavor spectrum continues to widen
- Food waste 2.0
- Pop culture restaurant experiences
MMI Data
-
- Vegetables on the menu
- Today – Vegetables demonstrate value in health and taste profiles
-
- Figure 19: Menu incidence of vegetarian/vegan menu item claims and vegetable preparation methods, Q3 2015-16
- Tomorrow – Butcher methods turn toward alternative meat
- Hard cider
- Today – Hard cider on the menu
-
- Figure 20: Menu incidence of hard cider and fruit flavored beer, Q3 2015-16
- Tomorrow – Served with a boost of flavor
- Bowls
- Today – The bowl trends
-
- Figure 21: Menu incidence of bowls as a menu item dish, Q3 2015-16
- Tomorrow – Foodservice bowl-inspired options in retail
- Brunch
- Today and tomorrow – A modern brunch occasion
-
- Figure 22: Menu incidence of brunch menus, Q3 2015-16
- Today and tomorrow – Marketing, ethical and geographical claims
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
-
- Young consumers enjoy beverage variety
- Retail settings become more appealing from a foodservice perspective
- Authentic international restaurants are top of mind
Where Consumers Are Dining
-
- Traditional segments still drive visitation, but face increased competition
-
- Figure 23: Restaurant segment visitation, September 2016
-
- Figure 24: Visitation to a local brewery/bar, September 2016
- Younger consumers are not giving up on grocery stores
-
- Figure 25: Retailer food visitation, by generation, September 2016
- Food halls become the new food court
-
- Figure 26: Gourmet food hall visitation, by generation, September 2016
- Non-Millennial parents more likely to focus on traditional dining segments
-
- Figure 27: Restaurant segment visitation, Millennial parents vs non-Millennial parents, September 2016
Dining Out Behavior – A Look into 2017
-
- Consumers plan to enjoy more leisurely meals
-
- Figure 28: Dining out behavior, September 2016
- Millennials continue to crave dining out experiences
-
- Figure 29: Dining out behavior, “What I plan to do more in 2017,” by generation, September 2016
- Hispanics represent their own dining out preferences
-
- Figure 30: Dining out behavior, “What I plan to do more in 2017,” by Hispanics and non-Hispanics, September 2016
Attitudes toward Dining Out
-
- The stress-free component
-
- Figure 31: Statement agreement toward dining out, September 2016
-
- Figure 32: Statement agreement – Strongly agree, “Dining out is a good way to enjoy food I don’t typically prepare at home,” by gender, September 2016
- Parents enjoy dining out
-
- Figure 33: Statement agreement - Any agree, by parents versus non-parents, September 2016
- The travel bug
-
- Figure 34: Statement agreement – Any agree, “Trying new restaurants is an important component of travel,” by age, September 2017
Beverage Preferences for 2017
-
- Iced tea leads in beverage preference
-
- Figure 35: Beverages consumers plan to drink more of in 2017, September 2016
- Millennials and iGens crave beverage variety
-
- Figure 36: Beverages consumers plan to drink more of in 2017, by age, September 2016
- Young, high-income consumers are a key alcohol demographic
-
- Figure 37: Beverages consumers plan to drink more of in 2017, by age and income, September 2016
Menu Preferences
-
- Premium and natural remain key menu preferences
-
- Figure 38: Menu preferences, September 2016
- Hispanics value direct health offerings
-
- Figure 39: Menu preferences, by Hispanics, September 2016
2017 Restaurant Concept Trends
-
- Traditional dining habits still remain important
-
- Figure 40: Restaurant concepts consumers want to see more of in 2017, September 2016
- iGens show a greater interest toward technology advances
-
- Figure 41: Restaurant concepts consumers want to see more of in 2017, by generation, September 2016
- Meal-kit popularity provides a new opportunity for restaurants
-
- Figure 42: Interest in restaurants offering more meal kits, by parents vs nonparents and age, September 2017
- Hispanics display more brand loyalty
-
- Figure 43: Select restaurant concepts consumers want to see more of in 2017, by Hispanics vs non-Hispanics, September 2016
- The union of coffee and alcohol
-
- Figure 44: Interest in seeing more coffeehouses serving alcohol at night in 2017, by age, September 2016
-
- Figure 45: Interest in seeing more cofeeehouses serve alcohol at night, by area, September 2016
The Delivery Target
-
- Family meal bundles
-
- Figure 46: Attitudes toward dining out – CHAID – Tree output, September 2016
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
-
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
-
-
- Figure 47: Total US revenues and forecasts for limited service and other eating places* at current prices 2011-21
- Figure 48: Total US revenues and forecasts for limited service and other eating places* at inflation prices 2011-21
-
- Figure 49: Total US revenues and forecasts for full service restaurants at current prices 2011-21
- Figure 50: Total US revenues and forecasts for full service restaurants at inflation prices 2011-21
-
Appendix – Consumer
-
- CHAID analysis methodology
-
- Figure 51: Attitudes toward dining out – CHAID – Table output, September 2016
Back to top