Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this Report
- Excluded
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Free-from market continues robust growth in 2016
- Slowing growth predicted going forward
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- Figure 1: Value retail sales of free-from foods in the UK, 2011-21
- Strong activity from leading brands fuels dairy-/lactose-free growth
- Rise in food allergy and intolerance should underpin free-from sales
- Avoidance diets remain popular
- NHS cuts gluten-free prescriptions
- Companies and brands
- Alpro extends its lead in a fragmented market
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- Figure 2: Leading brands’ shares in the UK retail free-from foods market, by value, 2015/16*
- Leading retailers bolster free-from ranges in 2016
- Fast-growing market continues to attract mainstream brands
- Specialist brands target new occasions and look to add value
- Free-from continues to see growth in advertising spend
- Marketing messages diverge – from intolerance awareness to taste
- The consumer
- Food avoidance is widespread
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- Figure 3: Avoidance of foods/ingredients, by respondent or household members, by reason, September 2016
- Three in 10 adults eat or buy free-from food
- Most buyers are able to do a one-stop free-from shop
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- Figure 4: Using one vs multiple shops to buy free-from foods, September 2016
- Naturalness appeals to three in five, high expectations of “clean label”
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- Figure 5: Interest in qualities in new free-from foods, September 2016
- Low sugar and fat is important to many
- On-the-go/snack items garner high interest
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- Figure 6: Behaviours of buyers/eaters of free-from food, September 2016
- Free-from foods face steep competition from scratch cooking
- 67% of non-users would only exclude foods on advice from health professionals
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- Figure 7: Behaviours of non-buyers/eaters of free-from food, September 2016
- Sparking interest is crucial challenge
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- High expectations of “clean label” in free-from
- The facts
- The implications
- Sparking interest in non-users is crucial challenge
- The facts
- The implications
- Free-from foods face competition from scratch cooking
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Free-from market continues robust growth in 2016
- Slowing growth predicted going forward
- Strong activity from leading brands fuels dairy-/lactose-free growth
- Rise in food allergy and intolerance should underpin free-from sales
- Avoidance diets remain popular
- NHS cuts gluten-free prescriptions
Market Size and Forecast
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- Free-from market continues robust growth
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- Figure 8: Value retail sales of free-from foods in the UK, 2011-21
- NPD and expanding distribution have been key engines of growth
- Slower growth on the cards
- Income squeeze stands to dampen demand
- Competition should lower prices, falling Pound will raise them
- NPD moves beyond essentials
- Limited scope to convert new users
- Market predicted to pass £950 million in 2021
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- Figure 9: Value retail sales of free-from foods in the UK, 2011-21
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Strong activity from leading brands fuels dairy-/lactose-free growth
- Marketing looks to grow the user base
- New products hope to drive spend among existing users
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- Figure 10: UK retail value sales of free-from food and drink, by segment, 2014-16
- Gluten-/wheat-free retains robust growth as NPD continues
- NPD remains a key factor in driving spend
- Gluten-free lacks the wider selling points and marketing support of dairy-free
Market Drivers
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- Rise in food allergy and intolerance should underpin free-from sales
- Coeliac disease affects one in 100
- Self-diagnosed food intolerance rising
- Avoidance diets remain popular
- “Clean eating” contributes to wheat and dairy avoidance
- FODMAP gains prominence
- Healthiness of gluten-free products questioned
- Industry steps up health efforts – strong consumer demand
- NHS continues cuts to gluten-free prescriptions
- Price remains an issue
- Weakened Pound will push up prices of imports
- Decline in 16-24s could limit growth
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- Figure 11: Recent and projected trends in population growth, by age, 2011-16 and 2016-21
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Alpro extends its lead in a fragmented market
- Leading retailers bolster free-from ranges in 2016
- Fast-growing market continues to attract mainstream brands
- Specialist brands target new occasions and look to add value
- Free-from continues to see growth in advertising spend
- Marketing messages diverge – from intolerance awareness to taste
Market Share
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- Alpro extends its lead in a fragmented market
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- Figure 12: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail free-from foods market, by value, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- First TV ad in three years fuels Lactofree
- Mixed performances in gluten-free
- Acquisitions affect the competitive landscape
- The fast-growing market continues to attract mainstream brands
- Own-brands step up the heat
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- L/N/R allergen claims plateau in food launches in 2015
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- Figure 13: Share of product launches in the UK retail food market featuring an L/N/R allergen claim, 2012-16
- Retailers introduce allergen colour coding…
- …and continue to bolster ranges
- Sainsbury’s adds 140 own-brand products
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- Figure 14: Share of NPD in the UK free-from market, by top 10 companies (sorted by 2015), 2012-16
- Alpro targets snacking and on-the-go with NPD…
- …and expands into dairy-free ice cream
- Arla Lactofree launches Natural Yogurt
- Coconut trend going strong in dairy alternatives
- More activity in yogurts/desserts
- Coconut moves into cheese and flour
- Gluten-free bakery brands expand portfolios
- Cereal brands continue free-from NPD
- Non-specialist brands continue to expand free-from offerings
- Leading pizza brands enter gluten-free
- Free-from fish fingers from top frozen players
- McVitie’s looks to gluten-free to expand its appeal
- Free-from drinks NPD growth halts
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- Figure 15: Share of L/N/R allergen product launches in the UK retail drinks market, 2012-16
- Brewers look to leverage gluten-free interest
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Free-from continues to see growth in advertising spend
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- Figure 16: Total above-the-line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on free-from foods, by top advertisers (sorted by 2015), 2012-16
- Alpro retains position as top advertiser…
- …but gets caught in a Twitter storm
- Tesco highlights gluten-free range in Christmas ad
- Morrisons follows Tesco with its first free-from TV ad
- Arla Lactofree invites consumers to join the real dairy revolution
- Unilever supports Flora Freedom launch
- Genius becomes first gluten-free brand to advertise in UK cinemas
- M&S partners with Coeliac UK
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Food avoidance is widespread
- Three in 10 adults eat or buy free-from food
- Most buyers are able to do a one-stop free-from shop
- Naturalness appeals to three in five, high expectations of “clean label”
- Low sugar and fat is important to many
- On-the-go/snack items garner high interest
- Free-from foods face steep competition from scratch cooking
- 67% of non-users would only exclude foods on advice from health professionals
- Sparking interest is crucial challenge
Avoidance of Foods/Ingredients
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- Food avoidance is widespread
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- Figure 17: Avoidance of foods/ingredients, by respondent or household members, by reason, September 2016
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- Figure 18: Types of foods/ingredients avoided by respondent or household members, September 2016
- Healthy lifestyle most important reason for dairy/lactose and wheat/gluten avoidance
Types of Free-from Foods Bought and Eaten
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- Three in 10 adults eat or buy free-from food
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- Figure 19: Types of free-from food bought and eaten, September 2016
- One in five buy or eat gluten-free food
- Dairy substitutes have a lead over lactose-free
- Disparity between avoidance and uptake of free-from
- Buying without avoiding
- Avoiding foods without buying the substitutes
- 16-24s and Londoners are core user groups of free-from food
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- Figure 20: Free-from food purchasing and usage, by age, September 2016
Shopping for Free-from Food
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- Most buyers are able to do a one-stop free-from shop
- Availability of free-from has improved in recent years…
- …but a quarter of shoppers need to shop around
- A strong free-from offer can sway Christmas shoppers
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- Figure 21: Using one vs multiple shops to buy free-from foods, September 2016
- Supermarkets are most widely used outlet for free-from food
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- Figure 22: Types of outlets used when shopping for free-from foods, September 2016
- Convenience stores have growth potential
- Younger shoppers more likely to use other outlets than supermarkets
Interest in Free-from Innovation
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- Naturalness appeals to three in five, high expectations of “clean label”
- Natural claims remain rare in the market
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- Figure 23: Interest in qualities in new free-from foods, September 2016
- Low sugar and fat is important to many
- Fat and sugar a challenge for gluten-free, NPD remains rare
- “Superfood” ingredients appeal to under-35s
- Churn of new “superfoods” ensures newness but requires timely NPD
- Tapping other healthy eating trends could attract non-users
Behaviours of Users
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- On-the-go/snack items garner high interest
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- Figure 24: Behaviours of buyers/eaters of free-from food, September 2016
- Free-from foods face steep competition from scratch cooking
- Many families do not eat the same free-from meals
Behaviours of Non-Users
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- 67% would only exclude foods on advice from health professionals…
- …but there is high openness to trying a free-from diet
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- Figure 25: Behaviours of non-buyers/eaters of free-from food, September 2016
- Uncertainty about symptoms suggests growth potential for free-from
- Recent initiatives look to raise awareness
- Sparking interest is crucial challenge
- Price is a deterrent for most non-users
- Negative perceptions linger
- Greater in-store visibility is needed
- A third are put off by the “gluten-free” label
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 26: Best- and worst-case forecast of value retail sales of free-from foods, 2016-21
- Forecast Methodology
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Appendix – Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Figure 27: L/N/R allergen claims’ share of new food product launches, by category, 2012-16
- Figure 28: L/N/R allergen claims’ share of new drink product launches, by category, 2012-16
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- Figure 29: NPD featuring L/N/R allergy claims in the UK retail food market, branded vs own-label, 2012-16
- Figure 30: New food product launches with L/N/R allergen claims, by top claims, 2012-16
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