Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this Report
- Bread
- Speciality bread
- Sweet baked goods
Executive Summary
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- The market
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- Figure 1: UK retail value sales of the total* bread and baked goods market, 2011-21
- Volume sales expected to stabilise in 2017
- An end to deflation is set to see value sales hover round £3.8 billion
- Segment Performance
- Craft bakery looks to have stolen share from ISBs
- The decline in pre-packed bread accelerates in 2016
- Speciality breads fall into decline in 2016
- A tougher year for sweet baked goods in 2016
- Market factors
- Competition from eating out
- Bread is losing out to other products in the breakfast occasion
- No end to the rapid growth in gluten-free
- Companies and brands
- Warburtons holds its share
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- Figure 2: Leading brands in the UK pre-packed bread retail market, by value and volume, 2015/16*
- Warburtons brings high protein to the mainstream bakery market
- Ancient grains and seeds tap into ‘positive nutrition’
- Adspend on bread and baked goods jumps 34% year on year
- The consumer
- Overall usage of bread is almost universal
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- Figure 3: Types of bread bought in the past three months, May 2014, May 2015 and July 2016
- Generational divide in purchasing of sweet baked goods
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- Figure 4: Types of baked goods bought in the past three months, May 2014, May 2015 and June 2016
- Ingrained usage of packaged sliced bread among over-55s
- Usage frequency of sweet baked goods drops
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- Figure 5: Frequency of eating bread and baked goods in the past three months, May 2014, May 2015 and June 2016
- Low price is a priority for packaged sliced bread
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- Figure 6: Important factors when choosing which bread/baked goods to buy, by type of product, July 2016
- World-inspired breads hold appeal among ABs
- More exciting NPD needed to attract young consumers
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- Figure 7: Interest in innovation in bread and baked goods, July 2016
- Scope to encourage more snacking on baked goods through NPD
- Demand for locally-made artisanal bread
- Providing more information can help to build trust
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- Figure 8: Attitudes towards bread and baked goods, July 2016
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- More exciting NPD is needed in baked goods to appeal to the adventurous younger generation
- The facts
- The implications
- Building up a ‘behind-the-scenes’ narrative for bread can win trust
- The implications
- The time is right for more ethical NPD centring on fairer pay for British farmers
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Craft bakery looks to have stolen share from ISBs
- The decline in pre-packed bread accelerates in 2016
- Speciality breads fall into decline in 2016
- A tougher year for sweet baked goods in 2016
- Volume sales expected to stabilise in 2017
- An end to deflation is set to see value sales hover round £3.8 billion
- No end to the rapid growth in gluten-free
- Mixed health messages regarding carbohydrates
- Competition from eating out
- Bread is losing out to other products in the breakfast occasion
Market Size and Forecast
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- The rate of decline accelerates in 2016
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- Figure 9: UK retail value and volume sales of the total* bread and baked goods market, 2011-21
- Volume sales expected to stabilise in 2017
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- Figure 10: UK retail volume sales of the total* bread and baked goods market, 2011-21
- An end to deflation is set to see value sales hover round £3.8 billion
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- Figure 11: UK retail value sales of the total* bread and baked goods market, 2011-21
- The impact of the EU Referendum
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- Figure 12: Alternative scenarios for the bread and baked goods market, 2016-2021
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- Figure 13: Alternative scenarios for the bread and baked goods market, at current prices, 2016-21
- Potential for bread to benefit from a “lunch box” effect
Market Segmentation
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- Craft bakery looks to have stolen share from ISBs
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- Figure 14: UK retail value sales of bread and baked goods, 2014-16
- The decline in pre-packed bread accelerates in 2016
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- Figure 15: UK retail value sales of pre-packed bread, by types, 2014-16
- Speciality breads fall into decline in 2016
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- Figure 16: UK retail value sales of speciality bread, by type, 2014-16
- A tougher year for sweet baked goods in 2016
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- Figure 17: UK retail sales of sweet baked goods, by type, 2014-16
Market Drivers
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- No end to the rapid growth in gluten-free
- A fifth of consumers limit their intake of carbs, Eatwell recommends more fibre
- Competition from eating out
- Bread is losing out to other products in the breakfast occasion
- Supermarket price wars erode value in the market
- Food waste is in the public eye
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Warburtons holds its share
- Major price cuts for Kingsmill
- Genius sales fall by almost a third
- Mixed performances within sweet baked goods
- Gains for Kingsmill and losses for Warburtons in speciality bread
- Warburtons brings high protein to the mainstream bakery market
- Kingsmill looks to the breakfast occasion
- Ancient grains and seeds tap into ‘positive nutrition’
- Adspend on bread and baked goods jumps 34% year on year
- Warburtons looks to surprising brand champions
Market Share
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- Warburtons holds its share
- Major price cuts for Kingsmill
- Genius sales fall by almost a third
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- Figure 18: Leading brands in the UK pre-packed bread retail market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- Figure 19: Leading manufacturers in the UK pre-packed bread retail market, by value and volume, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- Warburtons’ share of the sweet baked goods market edges up
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- Figure 20: Leading brands in the UK sweet baked goods retail market, by value, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- Figure 21: Leading manufacturers in the UK sweet baked goods retail market, by value, 2014/15 and 2015/16
- Gains for Kingsmill and losses for Warburtons in speciality bread
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- Figure 22: Leading brands in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2014/15 and 2015/16
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- Figure 23: Leading manufacturers in the UK speciality bread and rolls retail market, by value, 2014/15 and 2015/16
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- A rebound in NPD from own-label in 2015
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- Figure 24: New product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by brands vs private label, 2012-16
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- Figure 25: New product launches in the UK bread and bread products market, by top 10 companies, 2012-16
- Gluten-free drops from its 2014 peak, but remains high
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- Figure 26: New product launches in the UK bread and bread products market with low/no/reduced allergen and gluten-free claims, 2012-16
- Warburtons brings high protein to the mainstream bakery market
- Kingsmill looks to the breakfast occasion
- Ancient grains tap into ‘positive nutrition’…
- …As do seeds
- Vegetables bring flavour as well as added health credentials
- Snacking bread and baked goods
- Cheese becomes a more prominent ingredient in bread and baked goods
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Adspend on bread jumps 34% year on year
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- Figure 27: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on bread and baked goods, by product type, 2012-16
- Warburtons significantly extends its lead in adspend
- Unexpected tie-ups see Stallone and The Muppets advocate the brand
- Social media plays a key part in anniversary marketing
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- Figure 28: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on bread and baked goods, by advertiser, top 10, 2012-16*
- Premier Foods makes TV comeback for launch of Hovis Good Inside
- Adspend from Lidl triples year on year
- Activity from New York Bakery in 2016
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- Brand map
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- Figure 29: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, September 2016
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 30: Key metrics for selected brands, September 2016
- Brand attitudes: Hovis is the most trusted and reputable brand
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- Figure 31: Attitudes, by brand, September 2016
- Brand personality: New York Bakery sets itself apart on the fun factor
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- Figure 32: Brand personality – macro image, September 2016
- Warburtons is most likely to be seen as family-oriented
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- Figure 33: Brand personality – micro image, September 2016
- Brand analysis
- Warburtons has a strong positive reputation
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- Figure 34: User profile of Warburtons, September 2016
- Hovis is seen as the most traditional brand
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- Figure 35: User profile of Hovis, September 2016
- New York Bakery Co exudes most vibrancy and coolness
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- Figure 36: User profile of New York Bakery Co, September 2016
- Burgen is seen as the healthiest brand
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- Figure 37: User profile of Burgen, September 2016
- Kingsmill is seen to offer the best value for money
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- Figure 38: User profile of Kingsmill, September 2016
- Genius is most closely associated with being ethical
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- Figure 39: User profile of Genius, September 2016
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Overall usage of bread is almost universal
- Generational divide in purchasing of sweet baked goods
- Ingrained usage of packaged sliced bread among over-55s
- Sugar concerns are likely causing problems for sweet baked goods
- Low price is a priority for shoppers in packaged sliced bread
- World-inspired breads hold appeal among ABs
- More exciting NPD needed to attract young consumers
- Scope to encourage more snacking on baked goods through NPD
- Demand for locally-made artisanal bread
- Providing more information can help to build trust
Purchase and Usage of Bread and Baked Goods
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- Eight in 10 adults buy packaged sliced bread
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- Figure 40: Types of bread bought in the past three months, May 2014, May 2015 and July 2016
- Sugar concerns are likely causing problems for sweet baked goods
- Generational divide in purchasing of sweet baked goods
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- Figure 41: Types of baked goods bought in the past three months, May 2014, May 2015 and June 2016
- Ingrained usage of packaged sliced bread among over-55s
- Young consumers are the most infrequent users of sliced bread
- Sweet baked goods use peaks among under-35s
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- Figure 42: Frequency of eating bread and baked goods in the past three months, May 2014, May 2015 and June 2016
Choice Factors
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- Low price is a priority for packaged sliced bread
- A small minority look for British sourced ingredients
- Inertia in the bread market
- Freshly baked is the most important factor for other types of bread and baked goods
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- Figure 43: Important factors when choosing which bread/baked goods to buy, by type of product, July 2016
- Indulgence trumps low-calorie for other types of bread and baked goods
Interest in Innovation
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- World-inspired breads hold appeal among ABs
- Limited authentic NPD in world-inspired bread
- Baked goods can tap into the vibrant street food trend
- Baked-to-order baked goods can help to set ISBs apart
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- Figure 44: Interest in innovation in bread and baked goods, July 2016
- More exciting NPD needed to attract young consumers
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- Figure 45: Interest in selected innovation in bread and baked goods, by age, July 2016
- Sweet and savoury
- Sourdough outside of standard bread
- Portmanteau products
- Interest in healthy NPD
- Marked interest in alternatives to refined sugar
- 22% of 25-34s would like bread/baked goods with colourful vegetables
Attitudes towards Bread and Baked Goods
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- Scope to encourage more snacking on baked goods through NPD
- Bread remains poorly suited for out-of-home, but strong interest in NPD
- Snack-sized products enjoy wide appeal
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- Figure 46: Attitudes towards bread and baked goods, July 2016
- Demand for locally-made artisanal bread
- Under-25s keen on home deliveries
- Providing more information can help to build trust
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Other definitions
- Bread
- Sweet baked goods
- Speciality bread
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 47: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK bread and baked goods market, by value, 2016-21
- Figure 48: Best- and worst-case forecasts for the total UK bread and baked goods market, by volume, 2016-21
- Forecast Methodology
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