Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Falling prices bring down market value 2014-16
- Inflation and income trends to affect the market 2016-21
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- Figure 1: UK retail value sales of unprocessed meat, poultry and game, 2011-21
- Diverse factors govern segment performance
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- Figure 2: Growth in UK retail value sales of unprocessed meat, poultry and game, by segment, 2011-16 and 2011-21
- Mixed fortunes for red meat in 2016
- Poultry remains in volume growth and game continues strong growth from a low base
- ‘Flexitarian’ trend opens possibilities for other proteins
- Health concerns affect red meat
- Companies and brands
- Retailers build up their premium ranges
- Waitrose launches Omega 3 enriched chicken, Tesco promotes twin-packs
- Supermarkets dominate advertising
- Discount supermarkets focus on provenance and ethics
- Morrisons highlights in-store preparation and appeals to emotions
- The consumer
- Chicken’s lower price allows it more frequent usage than beef
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- Figure 3: Usage frequency for unprocessed meat, poultry and game, by type, August 2016
- Beef no longer the principal choice for weekend meals
- A price-driven market, encouraged by supermarket tactics
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- Figure 4: Meat, poultry and game buying factors, August 2016
- Scope to move the discussion beyond price among a significant minority
- Cooking guidance should help to expand buyers’ limited repertoires
- Future direction of the economy crucial for future sales
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- Figure 5: Meat, poultry and game eating and buying behaviours, August 2016
- Farmers’ pay guarantees offer a promising means to appeal to shoppers
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- Figure 6: Attitudes towards meat, poultry and game, August 2016
- Reassurance on antibiotics could help companies to bolster their reputation with consumers
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Farmers’ pay guarantees offer a promising means to appeal to shoppers
- The facts
- The implications
- Cooking guidance should help to expand buyers’ limited repertoires
- The facts
- The implications
- Offering reassurance on antibiotics can boost companies’ standing
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Falling prices bring down market value 2014-16
- Inflation and income trends to affect the market 2016-21
- Diverse factors govern segment performance
- Mixed fortunes for red meat in 2016
- Poultry remains in volume growth and game continues strong growth from a low base
- ‘Flexitarian’ trend opens possibilities for other proteins
- Health concerns affect red meat
Market Size and Forecast
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- Falling prices push down overall market value 2014-16
- Imported inflation to push up overall market value 2016-21
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- Figure 7: UK retail value sales of unprocessed meat, poultry and game, 2011-21
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- Figure 8: UK retail value sales of unprocessed meat, poultry and game, by segment, 2011-21
- Forecast methodology
- The impact of the EU referendum vote
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- Figure 9: Alternative scenarios for the unprocessed meat, poultry and game market, 2016-21
- Figure 10: Alternative scenarios for the unprocessed meat, poultry and game market, at current prices, 2016-21
- Potential for inflation to prompt cutbacks or switching
Market Segmentation
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- Beef
- Lower prices weaken beef values 2014-16
- Volume sales grow slightly in 2016 despite WHO report
- Health and environmental concerns to continue to affect beef 2016-21
- Pork
- Pork segment continues to struggle in 2016
- High reliance on imports to drive pork price inflation 2016-21
- Lamb
- Reduced supply causes lamb prices to edge up in 2016
- Lamb’s higher price leaves it vulnerable to any squeeze on incomes
- Poultry
- Poultry sales remain in growth as shoppers retain savvy spending habits
- Poultry’s low price should help volume and value sales growth 2016-21
- Game
- Increased distribution helps game to grow 2011-16
- Game expected to see further growth 2016-21, but this will slow
- Offal
- Lack of consumer interest hinders offal
- Offal values to be pushed up by inflation despite static volume sales
Market Drivers
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- Weak wholesale meat and poultry prices pull down retail prices
- Supermarkets step up their price war
- Weakened pound could lead to price inflation
- Brexit vote raises multiple uncertainties
- Economic slowdown could lead to cutbacks or switching
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- Figure 11: Retail price index for meat and poultry, by segment, and comparison with total food, 2011-16
- Many complex issues to resolve
- ‘Flexitarian’ trend has implications for volume sales
- UN panel advocates tax on meat to preserve environment
- Health concerns affect red meat
- Antibiotic use comes under closer government scrutiny
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Retailers build up their premium ranges
- Waitrose launches Omega 3 enriched chicken, Tesco promotes twin-packs
- Supermarkets dominate advertising
- Discount supermarkets focus on provenance and ethics
- Morrisons highlights in-store preparation and appeals to emotions
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Further growth in roast-in-the-bag chickens
- Appealing to the ethically-conscious through animal welfare claims
- Opportunity for roast-in-the-bag game birds
- Supermarkets build up their premium ranges
- Discounters look to exotic and unusual meats
- Exploring provenance through reference to animal breeds
- Rise in low-fat claims
- Waitrose looks to tap into interest in Omega 3 with enriched chicken
- Tesco introduces Farm brands
- Tesco promotes chicken twin-packs as cutting down on food waste
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Supermarkets dominate advertising
- Discount supermarkets put the focus on provenance
- Aldi uses humour to underline its ethical sourcing
- Lidl focuses on farms
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- Figure 12: Total above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on red meat, poultry and game, by top advertisers, 2012-16*
- Morrisons highlights its in-store meat preparation
- Building emotional associations around meat through reference to family meals
- Trade bodies look to attract younger consumers to lamb
- AHDB reprises mini roast campaign
- AHDB and HCC push family farms angle to encourage buying British
- AHDB prompts Britons to support lamb farmers
- HCC looks to push awareness of Welsh pork producers
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Chicken’s lower price allows it more frequent usage than beef
- Beef no longer the principal choice for weekend meals
- A price-driven market, encouraged by supermarket tactics
- Scope to move the discussion beyond price among a significant minority
- Cooking guidance should help to expand buyers’ limited repertoires
- Future direction of the economy crucial for future sales
- Farmers’ pay guarantees offer a promising means to appeal to shoppers
- Reassurance on antibiotics could help companies to bolster their reputation with consumers
Usage of Unprocessed Meat, Poultry and Game
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- Usage of meat, poultry and game higher among men than women
- Chicken is the most regularly eaten type
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- Figure 13: Usage of unprocessed meat, poultry and game, by type, August 2016
- Beef is the second most eaten meat, but lags far behind chicken on frequency
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- Figure 14: Usage frequency for unprocessed meat, poultry and game, by type, August 2016
- Over-55s are the most likely to eat lamb
- Game attracts a young urban customer base
- Game should benefit from the expansion in processed products
- Turkey and duck face a number of usage barriers
Usage Occasions for Selected Types of Meat, Poultry and Game
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- Beef no longer the first choice for Sunday lunch
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- Figure 15: Usage occasions for selected types of meat, poultry and game, August 2016
- Pork chosen for everyday meals but not for special occasions
- One third would cook lamb for a weekday meal
- Unprocessed meat loses out to processed for outdoor meals
Meat, Poultry and Game Buying Factors
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- Consumers’ price focus encouraged by retailer tactics
- Scope to move the discussion away from price among a large minority
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- Figure 16: Meat, poultry and game buying factors, August 2016
- Focus on familiar meats limits buying repertoires
- Cooking advice could help to boost sales of less familiar meat cuts
- Further work needed to persuade consumers on value of animal breeds and diets
Meat, Poultry and Game Eating and Buying Behaviours
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- Future direction of the economy crucial for meat sales
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- Figure 17: Meat, poultry and game eating and buying behaviours, August 2016
- Flexitarian trend creates opportunities for other protein sources
- Poultry and game could benefit from health concerns around red meat
Attitudes towards Meat, Poultry and Game
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- Additional incentive needed to prompt buyers to act on their trust in British safety and welfare standards
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- Figure 18: Attitudes towards meat, poultry and game, August 2016
- Ethical claims could be a differentiator
- Interest in farmers’ pay guarantees should be a boost to small family farms
- Opportunities for further expansion in charity tie-ups
- Need to make charity connections more tangible
- Unnecessary antibiotic use of concern to many
- ‘No antibiotic’ labels likely to resonate
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 19: UK retail value sales of unprocessed meat, poultry and game, with annual change, 2011-21
- Figure 20: UK retail value sales of unprocessed beef, 2011-21
- Figure 21: UK retail value sales of unprocessed beef, with annual change, 2011-21
- Figure 22: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of unprocessed beef, 2016-21
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- Figure 23: UK retail value sales of unprocessed pork, 2011-21
- Figure 24: UK retail value sales of unprocessed pork, with annual change, 2011-21
- Figure 25: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of unprocessed pork, 2016-21
- Figure 26: UK retail value sales of unprocessed lamb, 2011-21
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- Figure 27: UK retail value sales of unprocessed lamb, with annual change, 2011-21
- Figure 28: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of unprocessed lamb, 2016-21
- Figure 29: UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry, 2011-21
- Figure 30: UK retail value sales of unprocessed poultry, with annual change, 2011-21
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- Figure 31: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of unprocessed poultry, 2016-21
- Figure 32: UK retail value sales of unprocessed game, 2011-21
- Figure 33: UK retail value sales of unprocessed game, with annual change, 2011-21
- Figure 34: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of unprocessed game, 2016-21
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- Figure 35: UK retail value sales of offal, 2011-21
- Figure 36: UK retail value sales of offal, with annual change, 2011-21
- Figure 37: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of offal, 2016-21
- Forecast Methodology
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