Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- QSR sandwich chains have low customer loyalty
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- Figure 1: Sandwich chain NPS, among chain visitors, July 2016
- Food prices are hurting the restaurant industry
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- Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated sliced lunch meat and deli-counter lunch meat, by segment at current prices, 2011-21
- The opportunities
- Consumers want premium sandwiches
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- Figure 3: Sandwich statement agreement, any agree, July 2016
- Appeal to an international palate
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- Figure 4: Sandwich type interest, July 2016
- Focus on the meats and breads
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- Figure 5: Important factors at sandwich restaurants, July 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Consumers are choosing deli-counter meats
- Sandwiches in a gluten-free world
- Keep an eye on iGens
- What isn’t in the food
Market Perspective
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- Are bowls the next sandwich?
- Retail prices are depressing the foodservice industry; consumers are choosing fresh deli meat
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- Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of refrigerated sliced lunch meat and deli-counter lunch meat, by segment at current prices, 2011-21
Market Factors
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- Consumers continue to go gluten-free
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- Figure 7: Consumption of gluten-free foods, 2013-16
- Move over Millennials
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- Figure 8: US population by generation, 2011-21
- Snacking is a frequent occasion
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- Figure 9: Daily snacking frequency, January 2015
- Keep it clean
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- Figure 10: Food statement agreement, any agree, I prefer to eat foods without artificial ingredients, winter 2013-16
- Figure 11: Subway email, “Say Yes to No” sent on Aug. 9, 2016
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- Figure 12: Panera Bread email, “A Wondrous World Awaits” sent on Aug. 9, 2016
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Fast casual sandwich chains are growing, but QSRs hold their own
- The future of Subway is unclear
- International sandwiches can shine on menus
- Meat now, veggies later
What’s Working?
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- Fast casual chains are driving sandwich growth
- Fast casual sandwich restaurants to watch
- QSR chains find their voice
- The breakfast business
What’s Struggling?
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- Case study: Subway
- Subway: A brief history
- Subway faces challenges
- Subway under construction
What’s Next?
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- Snackable sandwiches
- Technology
- Counter-trends: Mighty meats versus delectable veggies
- Artisan cold cuts and cheesy steak
- Who needs meat?
- The continued proliferation of international
MMI Analysis
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- Sandwich growth is stagnant; a majority of sandwiches are offered at LSRs
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- Figure 13: Growth of sandwiches on menus, all segments, Q2 2015-Q2 2016
- Figure 14: Share of sandwiches on menus, all segments, Q2 2016
- Going global
- Trending sandwich types
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- Figure 15: Top 10 sandwich types and change of incidence on menus, Q2 2015-Q2 2016
- Select sandwich ingredients
- Bread
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- Figure 16: Top 10 sandwich breads and change of incidence on menus, Q2 2015-Q2 2016
- Cheese
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- Figure 17: Top 10 sandwich cheeses and change of incidence on menus, Q2 2015-Q2 2016
- Ingredient claims
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Consumers are visiting a variety of sandwich restaurants
- Menu protein-packed sandwiches
- Millennials are open to international flavors
- Freshness appeals to the senses
- Focus on the meat and bread
- Give customers a premium sandwich option
Sandwich Shop Visitation
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- Subway leads the way in terms of visitation
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- Figure 18: Sandwich chain visitation in the past three months, July 2016
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- Figure 19: Sandwich chain visitation in the past three months, by those who have visited one sandwich chain, July 2016
- Consumers are split between chain loyalists and switchers
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- Figure 20: Repertoire analysis, sandwich shop visitation, July 2016
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- Figure 21: Repertoire analysis, sandwich shop visitation, July 2016
- Men are visiting fast casuals more than women
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- Figure 22: Sandwich chain visitation in the past three months, by gender, July 2016
- Millennials are key fast casual consumers
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- Figure 23: Sandwich chain visitation in the past three months, by generation, July 2016
- Hispanics visit a variety of different sandwich chains
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- Figure 24: Sandwich chain visitation in the past three months, by Hispanic origin, July 2016
- Sandwich chains must cater to parents
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- Figure 25: Sandwich chain visitation in the past three months, by parents of child(ren) under 18, July 2016
Sandwich Chain Net Promoter Scores
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- NPS overview
- Fast casuals garner high NPS
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- Figure 26: Sandwich chain NPS, among chain visitors, July 2016
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- Figure 27: Sandwich chain NPS, among chain visitors, score breakout, July 2016
- NPS deep dive: Subway
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- Figure 28: Net Promotor Score by select demographics, among chain visitors, Subway, July 2016
- NPS deep dive: Arby’s
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- Figure 29: Net Promotor Score by select demographics, among chain visitors, Arby’s, July 2016
- NPS deep dive: Panera Bread
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- Figure 30: Net Promotor Score by select demographics, among chain visitors, Panera Bread, July 2016
Sandwich Type Interest
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- Consumers are interested in meat-heavy sandwiches
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- Figure 31: Sandwich type interest, July 2016
- Women are target market for vegetarian sandwiches
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- Figure 32: Sandwich type interest, by gender, July 2016
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- Figure 33: Sandwich type interest, breakfast and vegetarian, by gender and age, July 2016
- Millennials drive interest in international sandwiches
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- Figure 34: Sandwich type interest, by generation, July 2016
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- Figure 35: Sandwich type interest, by age and income, July 2016
- Test international concepts in urban areas
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- Figure 36: Sandwich type interest, by area, July 2016
Sandwich TURF Analysis
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- Methodology
- A varied sandwich selection reaches a majority of consumers
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- Figure 37: TURF analysis, sandwich type interest, July 2016
The Definition of Fresh
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- Freshness should be sensory
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- Figure 38: Definition of fresh at sandwich restaurants, July 2016
- In their own words: Freshness indicators
- Freshness indicators appeal to women
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- Figure 39: Definition of fresh at sandwich restaurants, by gender, July 2016
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- Figure 40: Definition of fresh at sandwich restaurants, by gender and age, July 2016
- Marketing freshness to iGen/Millennials
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- Figure 41: Definition of fresh at sandwich restaurants, by generation, July 2016
Important Sandwich Restaurant Factors
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- A sandwich restaurant needs great meat and bread
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- Figure 42: Important factors at sandwich restaurants, July 2016
- In their own words: The importance of meat
- Veggies for women and meats for men
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- Figure 43: Important factors at sandwich restaurants, any rank, by gender, July 2016
- A potential white space in sandwich condiments
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- Figure 44: Important factors at sandwich restaurants, any rank, by generation, July 2016
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- Figure 45: Important factors at sandwich restaurants, any rank, by income, July 2016
- Factor importance among chain visitors
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- Figure 46: Important factors at sandwich restaurants, any rank, by chain visitation, July 2016
Sandwich Areas of Opportunity
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- Consumers want a more premium sandwich
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- Figure 47: Sandwich statement agreement, any agree, July 2016
- Premium items appeal to both genders
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- Figure 48: Sandwich statement agreement, any agree, by gender, July 2016
- iGen/Millennials drive interest in delivery and international flavors
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- Figure 49: Sandwich statement agreement, any agree, by generation, July 2016
- Appealing to the Hispanic consumer
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- Figure 50: Sandwich statement agreement, any agree, by Hispanic origin, July 2016
- Opportunity exists in urban areas
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- Figure 51: Sandwich statement agreement, any agree, area, July 2016
CHAID Analysis – Sandwiches as a Snack
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- Methodology
- Targeting those who want snackable sandwiches
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- Figure 52: Sandwich statement agreement – CHAID – Tree output, August 2016
Qualitative Analysis – Sandwich Deals
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- Understanding the deals consumers want
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Nation’s Restaurant News
- Mintel Menu Insights
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Consumer
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- Figure 53: Food statement agreement, any agree, I prefer to eat foods without artificial ingredients, winter 2013-16
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Appendix – TURF Analysis
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- Figure 54: Table – TURF Analysis – Sandwich type interest, August 2016
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Appendix – CHAID Analysis
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- Figure 55: Sandwich statement agreement, any agree, July 2016
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