Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Products covered in this Report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Overall market sees values and volumes fall over 2011-16
- Maturity of market limits scope for growth 2016-21
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- Figure 1: UK retail value sales of yellow fats* and edible oils, 2011-21
- Decline in cooking oil pulls down whole market
- Olive oil values rise but volumes largely static
- Weak farmgate milk prices bring down butter prices
- Unpredictable factors influence olive oil prices
- Weakened pound and economic uncertainty could lead to inflation
- Companies and brands
- Lurpak extends lead
- Focus on provenance boosts Country Life and Kerrygold
- Benecol bucks negative trend in spreads
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- Figure 2: Leading brands’ shares in the UK retail yellow fats market, by value, 2015/16*
- Own-label remains dominant in weak oils market
- Majority of launches in oils, but increased NPD in spreads
- Spread brands highlight a lack of artificial ingredients, while butter focuses on regional origins
- Growth in organic and premium oils
- Unilever and Arla continue to dominate advertising
- Targeting the home cooking occasion
- Flora carries strong family associations
- Filippo Berio has a premium reputation
- Frylight seen as healthy, but also as fun and vibrant
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- Figure 3: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, August 2016
- The consumer
- Butter usage is higher than spreads, but half of people use both
- Butter and spreads have contrasting demographics
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- Figure 4: Buying of butter and spreads, by type, July 2016
- Edible oils usage highest among families, most people use more than one type
- Olive oil usage undiminished by price rises
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- Figure 5: Buying of edible liquid oils and solid oils/fats, by type, July 2016
- Block butter the top choice for baking, but chefs’ recommendations could help to boost spreads
- Scope to encourage use of oils on cooked food
- Many oil buyers unaffected by price
- Low saturated fat seen as especially important for cooking oils
- Scope for packaging innovation
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- Figure 6: Factors considered important when buying oil, by purpose, July 2016
- Low saturated fat seen as key to making a spread healthy
- All-natural ingredients are of particular appeal to over-65s
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- Figure 7: Factors judged to make a spread healthy, July 2016
- Opportunities for products with farmers’ pay guarantees
- Focus on convenience could grow usage of spray and flavoured oils
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- Figure 8: Attitudes towards yellow fats and edible oils, July 2016
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- Farmers’ pay guarantees offer a promising means to build value
- The facts
- The implications
- Convenience aspects of spray oils could be mined further
- The facts
- The implications
- Focus on individual flavours could boost uptake of non-dairy spreads
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Overall market sees values and volumes fall over 2011-16
- Maturity of market limits scope for growth 2016-21
- Decline in cooking oil pulls down whole market
- Olive oil values rise but volumes largely static
- Gains made by speciality oil swallowed up by weakness of cooking oil
- Weak farmgate milk prices bring down butter prices
- Unpredictable factors influence olive oil prices
- Weakened pound and economic uncertainty could lead to inflation
Market Size and Forecast
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- Overall market sees values and volumes fall over 2011-16
- Maturity of market limits growth potential 2016-21
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- Figure 9: UK retail value sales of yellow fats* and edible oils, 2011-21
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- Figure 10: UK retail value and volume sales of yellow fats and edible oils, 2011-21*
- Butter values fall but volumes grow 2011-16
- Butter revival to lose momentum
- Prices expected to creep up
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- Figure 11: UK retail value sales of butter, 2011-21
- Figure 12: UK retail value and volume sales of butter, 2011-21
- Spreads continue to decline 2011-16
- Ageing population should provide a boost
- Tightening of household incomes could benefit spreads
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- Figure 13: UK retail value sales of spreads, 2011-21
- Figure 14: UK retail value and volume sales of spreads, 2011-21
- Price volatility in edible oils over 2011-16
- Exchange rates crucial to edible oils values
- Mature market offers limited scope for growth
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- Figure 15: UK retail value sales of edible oils, 2011-21
- Figure 16: UK retail value and volume sales of edible oils, 2011-21
- Forecast methodology
- The impact of the EU referendum vote
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- Figure 17: Alternative scenarios for the yellow fats and oils market, 2016-21
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- Figure 18: Alternative scenarios for the yellow fats and edible oils market, at current prices, 2016-21
- Little immediate impact on consumer buying habits
- Some potential for economic slowdown to prompt switching within yellow fats…
- …limited by ingrained savvy shopping habits
- Weakened pound could spark oil price inflation…
- …but edible oils have seen little economising
Market Segmentation
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- Spreads lose market share
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- Figure 19: UK retail value and volume sales of yellow fats, by segment, 2014-16
- Weakness of cooking oil brings down entire market
- Olive oil values rise but little movement on volumes
- Rapid growth in speciality oils
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- Figure 20: UK retail value and volume sales of edible oils, by type, 2014-16
Market Drivers
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- Weak farmgate milk prices bring down butter prices
- Weakened pound could lead to price inflation
- Brexit vote creates economic uncertainty
- Unpredictable factors influence olive oil prices
- Ageing UK population could benefit spreads at the expense of butter
- More favourable media coverage of saturated fat enables butter revival
- Declining sales of carrier products affect butters and spreads
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- Lurpak extends lead
- Focus on provenance boosts Country Life and Kerrygold
- Benecol bucks negative trend in spreads
- Own-label remains dominant in weak oils market
- Majority of launches in oils, but increased NPD in spreads
- Spread brands highlight a lack of artificial ingredients, while butter focuses on regional origins
- Growth in organic and premium oils
- Unilever and Arla continue to dominate advertising
- Targeting the home cooking occasion
- Flora carries strong family associations
- Filippo Berio has a premium reputation
- Frylight seen as healthy, but also as fun and vibrant
Market Share
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- Lurpak benefits from butter’s revival and strong advertising investment
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- Figure 21: Leading brands’ sales and shares in the UK retail yellow fats market, by value and volume, 2013/14-2015/16
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- Figure 22: Leading manufacturers’ sales and shares in the UK retail yellow fats market, by value and volume, 2013/14-2015/16
- Benecol bucks downward trend in spreads
- Focus on British origins boosts Country Life
- Marketing focused on family farms helps Kerrygold to grow
- Own-label remains dominant in cooking oil
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- Figure 23: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK retail cooking oil market, by value and volume, 2013/14-2015/16
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- Figure 24: Leading manufacturers’ sales and share in the UK retail cooking oil market, by value and volume, 2013/14-2015/16
- Filippo Berio avoids losing sales in weak olive oil market
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- Figure 25: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK retail olive oil market, by value and volume, 2013/14-2015/16
- Figure 26: Leading manufacturers’ sales and share in the UK retail olive oil market, by value and volume, 2013/14-2015/16
- NPD helps own label to strengthen lead in speciality oils
- Coconut oil brands grow sales despite rising prices
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- Figure 27: Leading brands’ sales and share in the UK retail speciality oil market, by value and volume, 2013/14-2015/16
- Figure 28: Leading manufacturers’ sales and share in the UK retail speciality oil market, by value and volume, 2013/14-2015/16
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Increased NPD on spreads
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- Figure 29: New product launches in the UK butter, spreads market and edible oils market, by sub-category, 2011-16
- Flora Freedom focuses on both health and the environment
- Other dairy-free brands look to appeal to wider group of users
- Supermarkets hope to capitalise on food trends with avocado and coconut oil spreads
- Brands and retailers look to appeal to home cooks with flavoured butters
- Smaller companies and retailers highlight regional provenance
- Spread brands highlight the absence of artificial ingredients
- Spreads and spreadable butters draw on their key advantage over block butter
- Sustainable palm oil pledges drive rise in environmental claims 2015
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- Figure 30: New product launches in the UK butter and spreads market, by top ten claims (sorted by 2015), 2011-16
- Growth in organic coconut oils
- Princes expands into coconut oil
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- Figure 31: New product launches in the UK edible oils market, by top ten claims (sorted by 2015), 2011-16
- Retailers build up their premium oil ranges
- A wider variety of flavoured oils
Advertising and Marketing Activity
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- Unilever retains its advertising lead
- Associating Bertolli with authentic Italian cooking
- Flora draws on dinosaurs to champion plant-based ingredients
- Flora Freedom focuses on the environment
- Unified campaign targets home baking occasions
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- Figure 32: Above-the line, online display and direct mail advertising expenditure on yellow fats and edible oils, by top advertisers, 2012-16
- Arla consolidates position as second largest advertiser
- Lurpak encourages adventurousness in cooking
- Lurpak Infusions put the focus on flavour
- Anchor hopes to aid in parenting challenges
- Dairy Crest focuses on health and naturalness
- Associating Clover with family time
- Frylight continues its associations with Pancake Day
- Nielsen Ad Intel coverage
Brand Research
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- What you need to know
- Brand map
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- Figure 33: Attitudes towards and usage of selected brands, August 2016
- Key brand metrics
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- Figure 34: Key metrics for selected brands, August 2016
- Brand attitudes: Flora seen as caring most for the environment
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- Figure 35: Attitudes, by brand, August 2016
- Brand personality: Flora and Filippo Berio seen as the most vibrant
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- Figure 36: Brand personality – Macro image, August 2016
- Frylight is seen as the healthiest brand
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- Figure 37: Brand personality – Micro image, August 2016
- Brand analysis
- Filippo Berio is seen as most worth paying more for
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- Figure 38: User profile of Filippo Berio, August 2016
- Napolina is seen as traditional and wholesome, but as standing still by 60%
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- Figure 39: User profile of Napolina, August 2016
- Frylight is seen as the healthiest, but also as fun and vibrant
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- Figure 40: User profile of Frylight, August 2016
- Flora is most popular among parents with young children
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- Figure 41: User profile of Flora, August 2016
- Crisp ‘n’ Dry will need to work to improve its image
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- Figure 42: User profile of Crisp ‘n Dry, August 2016
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Butter usage is higher than spreads, but half of people use both
- Butter and spreads have contrasting demographics
- Edible oils usage highest among families, most people use more than one type
- Olive oil usage undiminished by price rises
- Block butter the top choice for baking, but chefs’ recommendations could help to boost spreads
- Scope to encourage use of oils on cooked food
- Many oil buyers unaffected by price
- Low saturated fat seen as especially important for cooking oils
- Scope for packaging innovation
- Low saturated fat seen as key to making a spread healthy
- All-natural ingredients are of particular appeal to over-65s
- Opportunities for products with farmers’ pay guarantees
- Focus on convenience could grow usage of spray and flavoured oils
Buying of Yellow Fats
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- Butter usage is higher than spreads, but half of people use both
- Butter and spreads have contrasting demographics
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- Figure 43: Buying of butter and spreads, by type, July 2016
- Taste is crucial in spreads usage
Buying of Edible Oils
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- Oil usage highest among families
- Majority of buyers use more than one type of oil
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- Figure 44: Buying of edible liquid oils and solid oils/fats, by type, July 2016
- Price rises have not dented olive oil usage
- Usage of extra virgin olive oil is higher, but little awareness of what makes it different
Usage Occasions for Selected Types of Yellow Fats and Edible Oils
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- Block butter remains the top choice in baking
- Chefs’ recommendations could appeal to younger consumers
- Marketing spreads as offering a tangible advantage
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- Figure 45: Usage occasions for selected types of yellow fats and edible oils, July 2016
- Butter’s taste associations help it target special occasion cooking
- Spreads could push health credentials more strongly to encourage use in cooking
- More people use olive oil for frying than for dressing
- Focus on flavour combinations could help to encourage use of oil on cooked food
Factors Considered Important when Buying Oil
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- Price seen as more important for cooking than dressing oil
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- Figure 46: Factors considered important when buying oil, by purpose, July 2016
- Low saturated fat seen as important by many
- Need for further innovation in packaging formats
- Further work needed to persuade consumers on value of production methods and ingredient origins
Definitions of a Healthy Spread
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- Low saturated fat seen as key to a healthy spread
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- Figure 47: Factors judged to make a spread healthy, July 2016
- All-natural ingredients enjoy strong health halo
- Spreads with functional heart health benefits remain niche
Attitudes towards Yellow Fats and Edible Oils
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- Convenience aspects of spray oils could be leveraged more
- Strategic positioning in-store and cross-promotion could boost flavoured oils
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- Figure 48: Attitudes towards yellow fats and edible oils, July 2016
- Opportunities for butters, spreads and oils with farmers’ pay guarantees
- Milk can offer cues in supporting farmers
- Potential for fair trade in oil
- Emphasis on unique flavours could boost usage of non-dairy spreads
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 49: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of yellow fats and edible oils, 2016-21
- Figure 50: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail volume sales of yellow fats and edible oils, 2016-21
- Figure 51: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of butter, 2016-21
- Figure 52: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail volume sales of butter, 2016-21
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- Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of spreads, 2016-21
- Figure 54: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail volume sales of spreads, 2016-21
- Figure 55: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail value sales of edible oils, 2016-21
- Figure 56: Best- and worst-case forecasts for retail volume sales of edible oils, 2016-21
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- Figure 57: UK retail volume sales of yellow fats and edible oils, 2011-21
- Figure 58: UK retail volume sales of butter, 2011-21
- Figure 59: UK retail volume sales of spreads, 2011-21
- Figure 60: UK retail volume sales of edible oils, 2011-21
- Forecast methodology
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