Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Scope of the report
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Strong growth in 2015 but a dip forecast in 2016
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- Figure 1: Forecast volume of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2011-21
- Figure 2: Forecast value of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2011-21
- The consumer
- Proportion of consumers taking long-haul holidays falls
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- Figure 3: Long-haul holidays taken in the past five years, June 2015 versus July 2016
- Growth in visits to North America but challenges lie ahead
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- Figure 4: Long-haul holiday destinations visited in the last five years, July 2016
- Expert advice is important when travelling long-haul
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- Figure 5: Long-haul holiday attitudes, July 2016
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- The importance of seniors following the Brexit result
- The facts
- The implications
- Flexible payment options can help stimulate long-haul bookings
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Long-haul trips grew in 2015, but 2016 will be a tough year
- Growth over the next five years could be curbed by Brexit
- Short-haul holidays are growing at a faster rate than long-haul trips
- Holidays in US, the Caribbean and Mexico grow in 2015
Market Size and Forecast
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- Steady growth in 2015 followed by a likely dip in 2016
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- Figure 6: Forecast volume and value of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2011-21
- Figure 7: Forecast volume of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2011-21
- Figure 8: Forecast value of long-haul holidays taken by UK residents, 2011-21
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- Short-haul holidays growing at a faster rate
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- Figure 9: Long-haul versus short-haul holidays, by volume, 2010-15
- Figure 10: Long-haul versus short-haul holidays, by volume, Q1 2015 versus Q1 2016
- Independent bookings on the rise but there is still a place for packages
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- Figure 11: Independent vs. non-independent long-haul holidays, by volume, 2010-15
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- Figure 12: Independent vs non-independent long-haul holidays, by volume, H1 2015 versus H1 2016
- Nine in ten long-haul trips taken by air
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- Figure 13: Long-haul holiday trips taken, by transport type, 2010-15
- US, the Caribbean and Mexico see strong growth
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- Figure 14: Top 10 long-haul holiday destinations, by volume 2014-15
Market Drivers
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- Brexit result; consumer caution and possible regulation changes
- A weak Pound is making holidays more expensive
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- Figure 15: Average weekly rates for Pound versus selected currencies, post-brexit, 2016
- Post Office World Wide Cost Barometer reveals cheapest destinations
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- Figure 16: Post Office Worldwide Cost Barometer 2016
- Low oil prices allowing airlines to keep fares low
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- Figure 17: Weekly Europe Brent Spot (Dollars per Barrel), September 2011 to September 2016
- Decision delayed for expanding Heathrow
- APD cuts benefit long-haul trips
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- Figure 18: Air Passenger Duty (APD) rates, April 2012-April 2016*
- Some long-haul tour operators are now charging more for trips
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Amadeus partners with VE Interactive to solve customer abandonment
- Etihad Airways develops new mobile app
- Bidding for upgrades on airlines could soon be the norm
- Ryanair to offer feeder service to long-haul carriers
- New long-haul routes for Thomas Cook Airlines
- New app allows passengers to sell their luggage space
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Thomas Cook Airlines introduces new routes for summer 2017
- Ryanair in talks to offer feeder service to long-haul carriers
- Amadeus to tackle customer abandonment in the booking process
- Etihad Airways releases new iPhone app
- Real-time on-board seat auctions in the pipeline
- Extra luggage allowance for hire
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Proportion of consumers taking long-haul trips falls
- North America is the most popular long-haul destination
- Beach holidays are the most popular long-haul holiday types
- Consumers willing to spend on accommodation
- Flexible payment options can help younger consumers book more long-haul trips
Long-haul Holiday Taking
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- Proportion of consumers taking long-haul holidays reduces
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- Figure 19: Long-haul holidays taken in the past five years, June 2015 versus July 2016
- Which groups have reduced long-haul trips?
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- Figure 20: Long-haul holidays taken in the past five years, by age, June 2015 versus July 2016
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- Figure 21: Long-haul holidays taken in the past five years, by socio-economic group, June 2015 versus July 2016
Long-haul Destinations
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- Trips to North American destinations on the increase
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- Figure 22: Long-haul holiday destinations visited in the last five years, July 2016
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- Figure 23: Spot exchange rate for British Pound against the US and Canadian Dollars, June 2015 to September 2016
- Visits to Mexico and the Caribbean grow
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- Figure 24: Holiday visits to Mexico and the Caribbean, by Volume 2014-15
- The Caribbean and affluent holidaymakers
- Holidays to South Africa increase but older consumers not so keen
High Frequency Long-haul Holidaymakers
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- 15% of long-haulers are high-frequency holidaymakers
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- Figure 25: Long-haul holiday destinations visited in the last five years, July 2016
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- Figure 26: Long-haul holiday destinations visited in the last five years, by repertoire of destinations visited, July 2016
Long-haul Holiday Types
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- Beach holidays and city breaks dominate long-haul
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- Figure 27: Types of holiday taken in the last five years, July 2016
- Cruises skewed towards over-65s and rural dwellers
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- Figure 28: How respondents would describe their financial situation, by age, June 2016
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- Figure 29: Consumers’ financial outlook for the coming year, by age, June 2016
- One in ten consumers have been on four or more holiday types
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- Figure 30: Types of holiday taken in the last five years, July 2016
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- Figure 31: Types of holiday taken in the last five years, by age, July 2016
Long-haul Transport Methods
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- Full-service airlines have competition but budget carriers face a tough task
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- Figure 32: Transport method for last long-haul holiday, July 2016
- Cruisers keen on the Caribbean
Long-haul Accommodation
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- Most long-haul travellers splash out on accommodation
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- Figure 33: Accommodation used for last long-haul holiday, July 2016
- Distinct differences between older and younger consumers
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- Figure 34: Accommodation used for last long-haul holiday, by age, July 2016
Long-haul Holiday Attitudes
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- Expert advice is important for long-haul travellers
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- Figure 35: Long-haul holiday attitudes I, July 2016
- Paying for long-haul trips in instalments
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- Figure 36: Long-haul holiday attitudes II, July 2016
Services on a Long-haul Flight
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- Premium economy seating most popular long-haul flight service
- Younger travellers willing to pay for on-board food and drink
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- Figure 37: Services willing to pay for on a long-haul flight, July 2016
CHAID Analysis – Long-haul Holidays
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- Methodology
- Unfussy younger consumers are willing pay for food and drink on a long-haul flight
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- Figure 38: Target group most willing to pay for services on a long-haul flight – CHAID – Tree output, July 2016
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- Figure 39: Target group most willing to pay for services on a long-haul flight – CHAID – Table output, July 2016
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Forecast methodology
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- Figure 40: Best- and worst-case forecast for long-haul volume, 2016-21
- Figure 41: Best- and worst-case forecast for long-haul volume, 2016-21
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