Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Amazon holds aces
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- Figure 1: Extent of online shopping conducted on Amazon, April 2016
- New shoppers a rare find
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- Figure 2: Incidence of online shopping in past month, by device, April 2016
- Grocery shopping not quite ready for prime time
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- Figure 3: Shopping for groceries online, by parental status, April 2016
- The opportunities
- Same buyers, more sales
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- Figure 4: Engagement with online shopping, April 2016
- Young, high-income, and urban households load carts up
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- Figure 5: Median spend on most recent order, by selected demographics, April 2016
- Social mandates boost sales
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- Figure 6: Fast-growing retailers with social mandates, 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Sales double 2011-16
- Trillions remain available at brick-and-mortar
- Mobile the location of growth 2014-16
Market Size and Forecast
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- Steady double-digit growth
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- Figure 7: Total US online retail sales and forecast, at current prices, 2011-21
- Best-case scenario places sales near $1 trillion in 2021
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- Figure 8: US total online shopping sales and fan chart forecast, at current prices, 2011-21
Market Perspective
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- Barriers remain in food, household goods
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- Figure 9: Categories avoided in online shopping, April 2016
- In their own words
- Shifting landscape for groceries
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- Figure 10: Shopping for groceries online, by gender and age, April 2016
- In their own words
Market Breakdown
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- Mobile carries a third of sales
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- Figure 11: US mobile shopping sales vs online shopping sales via desktop, 2014 and 2016
Market Factors – Technology
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- Future growth in broadband households limited
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- Figure 12: US residential broadband subscriptions, 2012-15
- Figure 13: Number of US household, 2005-15
- Mid- and high-income households already broadband subscribers
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- Figure 14: Home internet subscription, by household income, October 2015-June 2016
- Tablet ownership still rising
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- Figure 15: Smartphone and tablet ownership, April 2015-June 2016
- Apps for phones, sites for tablets
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- Figure 16: Methods of internet access, June 2016
Market Factors – Demographics
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- Households with children
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- Figure 17: Engagement with online shopping, by parental status, April 2016
- Focusing on increasing sales among existing shoppers with children
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- Figure 18: Number of US households, by presence of children, 2005-15
- Growing Hispanic population spending more online
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- Figure 19: Mean spend on most recent order, Hispanics vs non-Hispanics, April 2016
- Ages 25-44 show elevated spending
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- Figure 20: Mean spend on most recent order, by age, April 2016
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Amazon pulls further ahead
- Mass merchandisers, department stores see big gains
- Rapid growth aligned with social mandates and category specialists
What’s Working?
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- Amazon grows sales $12.9 billion in 2015
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- Figure 21: Extent of online shopping conducted on Amazon, April 2016
- In their own words
- Software, online debuts boost Apple’s online sales
- Walmart prioritizes development of online resources
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- Figure 22: Interest in buying groceries online, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
- Department stores see rising e-commerce sales
- In their own words:
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- Figure 23: Selected online retailers with increases in sales of $500 million or more in 2015
What’s Struggling?
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- Declines linked to sector or brand-specific woes
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- Figure 24: Selected online retailers with sales declines in 2015
What’s Next?
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- Ethical brands ring it in
- Furniture begins transition to e-commerce
- Everyday purchases
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- Figure 25: Selected online retailers with sales increases of 50%+, 2015
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Desktop dominates
- Spending and frequency intertwined
- Price comparisons top prepurchase activity
- Young men, parents less concerned with shipping fees
Use of Desktop and Mobile Platforms
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- Desktop platform primary arena for conversions
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- Figure 26: Incidence of online shopping in past month, by device, April 2016
- Desktop dominance holds in frequency comparisons
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- Figure 27: Frequency of online shopping in past month, by device, April 2016
Frequency of Online Shopping
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- Two thirds make multiple purchase per month
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- Figure 28: Frequency of online shopping (any device), by parental status, April 2016
- Hispanics devoted to frequent purchasing
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- Figure 29: Frequency of online shopping (any device), by race/Hispanic origin, April 2016
Cart Size
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- Orders typically well above free shipping limits
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- Figure 30: Mean spend on most recent order, by parental status, April 2016
- Urbanites carry more weight
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- Figure 31: Mean spend on most recent order, by location of residence, April 2016
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- Figure 32: Motivations for online shopping, April 2016
Attitudes to Shipping
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- Avoiding fees priority for majority
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- Figure 33: Attitudes to shipping, April 2016
- Parents more likely to splurge
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- Figure 34: Attitudes to shipping, by parental status, April 2016
- Young men less sensitive to fees
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- Figure 35: Attitudes to shipping, by gender and age, April 2016
- Frequent shoppers more liberal with fees
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- Figure 36: Attitudes to shipping, by online shopping frequency, April 2016
Shopping Preferences
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- Some leeway available in price
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- Figure 37: Preferences and behavior in retailer selection, April 2016
- Parents give thought to suggestions, service, subscriptions
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- Figure 38: Preferences and behavior in retailer selection, by parental status, April 2016
- Hispanics consider more than price
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- Figure 39: Preferences and behavior in retailer selection, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
- Frequent shoppers favor overall experience
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- Figure 40: Preferences and behavior in retailer selection, by online shopping frequency, April 2016
The Purchase Process
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- Price comparisons, review top prepurchase activities
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- Figure 41: Steps taken prior to online shopping purchases, by category, April 2016
- In their own words
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Market Size definition
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 42: Total US online sales, at inflation adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 43: Population by Hispanic origin, 2011-21
- Figure 44: Population by age, 2011-21
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Appendix – Consumer
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- Cart size
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- Figure 45: Mean spend on most recent order, by household income, April 2016
- Motivations for online shopping
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- Figure 46: Motivations for online shopping, by parental status, April 2016
- Engagement
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- Figure 47: Engagement with online shopping, by area, April 2016
- Purchase process
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- Figure 48: Steps taken prior to online shopping purchases, by product category, by frequent shoppers, April 2016
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