Table of Contents
Overview
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- What you need to know
- Definition
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Fast casuals not competing with convenience and affordability of QSRs during the week
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- Figure 1: Segment visitation, by occasion, May 2016
- Portion sizes vary across the board
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- Figure 2: Interest in various portion sizes, by generation
- Consumers don’t want to feel rushed during their meal
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- Figure 3: Restaurant considerations, any occasion, May 2016
- The opportunities
- Restaurant industry projected for growth
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- Figure 4: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of full service and limited service restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2011-21
- Dining solo
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- Figure 5: Importance of restaurant factors, comfortable for dining alone, by age, May 2016
- Alcohol on the menu
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- Figure 6: Restaurant visitation factors, a great alcohol menu, by typical weekend, by generations, May 2016
- Millennials less likely to associate fine dining solely with special occasions
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- Figure 7: Fine dining restaurant visitation, by typical weekend, by Millennials and non-Millennials, May 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Blurred lines between retail and foodservice
- Alcohol sales important to FSRs
- LSRs offer convenience and quality
Market Size and Forecast
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- Restaurant sales reach $500 billion in 2016
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- Figure 8: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of full service restaurants and limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 11: Total US retail sales of restaurants, by segment, at current prices, 2016
Market Factors
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- Dining out distinction becoming less clear cut
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- Figure 12: Food sales away from home versus at home, January 2012-May 2016
- Consumer confidence
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- Figure 13: Consumer Sentiment Index, June 2008-June 2016
- Alcohol and less-traditional meal occasions
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- Figure 14: Total US sales and forecast of on-premise alcohol, at current prices, 2010-20
- Shifting US demographics driving market sales
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- Figure 15: Population by generation, 2016
- Fast casuals have to consistently demonstrate their value
Key Trends – What You Need to Know
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- Happy hours and less traditional meal times
- Restaurants in retail settings
- Millennials and foodies always looking for something new
What’s Working?
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- Shareable plates
- Outdoor seating
- Pictures of food
- Kid-friendly dining
What’s Struggling?
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- Traditional meals are starting to lose relevancy
- Soft drinks are being replaced by more natural options
What’s Next?
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- Technology innovations improve customer experience
- Innovation and design create a full restaurant experience
- Restaurants gain appeal in nonfood retail settings
- Restaurant collaboration and partnerships go mainstream
ePerformance Data
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- What is ePerformance?
- ePerformance and the foodservice industry
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- Figure 16: Email volume, by restaurant segments, June 1-July 2016
- The importance of email marketing for the restaurant decision making process
- Restaurant analysis
- Chili’s leverages emojis
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- Figure 17: Chili’s company email July 5, 2016: “+ salad + dessert = only $10!”
- Houlihan’s and pop culture
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- Figure 18: Houlihan’s company email June 24, 2016: “Hello. Is it tiki you’re looking for?”
- Broader foodservice trends
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- Figure 19: Applebee’s company email July 25, 2016 “[Name], every meal is better shared”
- Highlighting loyalty programs
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- Figure 20: Chipotle company email July 1, 2016: “Did someone say FREE burrito? Chiptopia has begun.”
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Comfortable dining alone
- Millennials want to share food
- Fine dining beyond special occasions
Restaurant Segment Visitation
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- Restaurant segment visitation by occasion
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- Figure 21: Restaurant segment visitation, May 2016
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- Figure 22: Restaurant segment visitation, by occasion, May 2016
- FSRs compete with LSRs for convenience
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- Figure 23: FSR and LSR segment visitation, May 2016
- Restaurant visitation by parents versus nonparents
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- Figure 24: Segment visitation on a typical weekday, by parents versus nonparents, May 2016
- Delivery by restaurant segment
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- Figure 25: Importance of delivery for restaurant choice, by restaurant segment visitation, May 2016
Restaurant Visitation Motivators
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- Experience is all
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- Figure 26: Restaurant considerations, any occasion, May 2016
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- Figure 27: All restaurant considerations by occasion, by income, May 2016
- Outdoor seating by restaurant segment
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- Figure 28: Restaurant considerations, by restaurant type, by any occasion, May 2016
- The rise of dietary-aware dishes and dining alone
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- Figure 29: Important qualities for restaurant choice, May 2016
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- Figure 30: Important restaurant considerations, comfortable for dining alone, by gender, May 2016
Regional Attitudes
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- LSRs vs. FSRs, by region
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- Figure 31: Restaurant segment visitation, by region, May 2016
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- Figure 32: Fast casual visitation, by region, May 2016
- Restaurant considerations, by region
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- Figure 33: Importance of not feeling rushed during a meal on a typical weekend, by region, May 2016
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- Figure 34: New restaurant visitation, by typical weekday, by region, May 2016
Restaurant Decision Making Process by Generation
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- Millennials find value in smaller, everyday indulgences
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- Figure 35: Restaurant segment visitation, by generation, May 2016
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- Figure 36: Restaurant segment visitation, by typical weekend, by generation, May 2016
- A strong interest in authentic, regional dishes across generations
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- Figure 37: Appeal of authentic regional or international cuisine, by generation, May 2016
- Millennials and the bar scene
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- Figure 38: Interest in a great alcoholic drink selection on a typical weekend, by generation, May 2016
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- Figure 39: Importance of bar area, by generation, May 2016
- A convenient location for dining out
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- Figure 40: Importance of convenient location, by generation, May 2016
- A sense of adventure surrounding Millennials
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- Figure 41: Restaurant considerations, by special occasion, by generation, May 2016
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- Figure 42: Restaurant considerations, by typical weekday, by generation, May 2016
Restaurant Decision Making Process by Race
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- Black consumers value convenient restaurant options
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- Figure 43: Restaurant segment visitation, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2016
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- Figure 44: LSR visitation, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2016
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- Figure 45: Family restaurant visitation, by special occasion, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2016
- Menu appeal by race
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- Figure 46: Menu characteristics appeal, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2016
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- Figure 47: Restaurant considerations, by occasion, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2016
- Value deals by race
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- Figure 48: Influencers for revisitation, by race, May 2016
Motivators for Revisitation
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- Seasonally inspired dishes grow in importance
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- Figure 49: Influencers for revisitation, May 2016
- Coupons remain leading value offer
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- Figure 50: Influencers for visitation, deal offers, May 2016
- Parents find value in dining out experiences
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- Figure 51: Influencers for visitation, by parent versus nonparent, May 2016
TURF Analysis – Menu Appeal
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- Figure 52: TURF analysis, menu appeal, May 2016
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Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 53: Total US retail sales and forecast of limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of limited service restaurants and other eating places*, at inflation adjusted prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 55: Total US retail sales and forecast of full service restaurants, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of full service restaurants at inflation adjusted prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 57: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2016-21
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Appendix – Consumer
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- Figure 58: Average household size, by race and Hispanic origin, 2015
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Appendix – TURF Analysis
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- Methodology
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- Figure 59: Turf analysis, menu appeal, May 2016
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