Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Tempered forecast for 2016 holiday season; Should edge 2015 by $10 billion
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- Figure 1: Total US retail sales* in November and December, at current prices, 2006-16
- All I want for the holidays is a good deal
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- Figure 2: Deal-seeking behaviors, May 2016
- Online shopping will reach new heights
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- Figure 3: Online shopping intent, by generation, May 2016
- The opportunities
- Focus on low-hanging fruit to upsell
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- Figure 4: Spending versus self-gifting intent, by key demographics, May 2016
- Lay out detailed messaging strategy
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- Figure 5: Attitudes related to preferred shopping time frames, May 2016
- Check off shoppers’ wish lists
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- Figure 6: Holiday shopping improvements, May 2016
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Winter holiday season should edge last year, but don’t count on it being a record breaker
- Economic climate leads to uncertainty
- A look back: Success or failure?
Market Size and Forecast
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- 2016 holiday season expected to trump last year by $10 billion
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- Figure 7: Total US retail sales* in November and December, at current prices, 2006-16
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- Figure 8: Total US retail sales* in November and December as a share of total annual retail sales, 2006-16
- 2015 anticipated expenditures were expected to stay flat versus 2014
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- Figure 9: Anticipated winter holiday expenditures on gifts versus other items, in current dollars, 2010-15
Market Perspective
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- Holiday sales were solid in 2015, but many say not solid enough
Market Factors
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- Consumers are in wait-and-see mode regarding the economy
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- Figure 10: Outlook on personal financial situation vs. US economy in coming 12 months, February 2015-March 2016
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- Figure 11: Consumer confidence and unemployment, 2007-June 2016
- Slight gains for GDP and DPI
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- Figure 12: GDP and PCE change from previous period, Q1 2007-Q1 2016
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- Figure 13: Disposable Personal Income change from previous period, January 2007-May 2016
- Median household income on the decline
- Gas prices remain low, but are starting to creep back up
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- Figure 14: US gasoline and diesel retail prices, January 2007-June 2016
- More time to shop this year
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Leading with mobile
- Stores without meaningful consumer relationships risk alienation
- Tis the season for technology
What’s Working?
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- Mobile shopping
- Email marketing
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- Figure 15: Amazon email, November 2015
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- Figure 16: Nordstrom email, November 2015
- Figure 17: REI email, November 2015
- Search engine optimization and marketing
- Customizable lists
What’s Struggling?
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- Is brick and mortar dead?
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- Figure 18: Target Wonderland pop-up shop in New York City, December 2015
- Figure 19: Lush holiday movie screenings in London, December 2015
What’s Next?
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- Social media integration
- Shoppable marketing
- Interactive video
- Virtual and augmented reality
- Connected devices will top wish lists
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Gift cards remain hot items
- Three out of four plan to do at least half of shopping online
- Shopping season gets longer
- Right gift trumps the budget more often than not
- Consumers want “free and fast” service for the holidays
The Meaning of the Holidays
2015 Winter Holiday Purchases
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- Everyone’s still eating, drinking, and being merry
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- Figure 20: 2015 winter holiday purchases, May 2016
- Categories purchased vary by holiday
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- Figure 21: 2015 winter holiday purchases, by holiday, May 2016
- Men are shopping too
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- Figure 22: 2015 winter holiday purchases, by gender, May 2016
- What’s on their shopping and personal wish lists?
- Experiences over tangible items
Planned Retail Channels
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- Prepare for another year of Amazon domination
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- Figure 23: Planned retailer types, May 2016
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- Figure 24: Planned retailer types, by age and household income, May 2016
- Local stores have a chance to shine
- Local
- National
- No preference
Online Shopping Intent
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- Three out of four plan to do at least half of shopping online
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- Figure 25: Online shopping intent, May 2016
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- Figure 26: Online shopping intent, by generation, May 2016
- Online marketplaces grow
- Video should be a vital part of communication strategies
- Email marketing performance can be amplified with browse abandonment tactics
- Mobile as the new storefront
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- Figure 27: Planned 2015 holiday shopping consumer activities on mobile devices, October 2015
Holiday Shopping Research and Planning
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- Even if they’re not buying online, they’re probably shopping online
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- Figure 28: In-store versus online preferences, by gender and age, May 2016
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- Figure 29: Online shopping behavior, by generation, May 2016
- Cashing in on coupons and loyalty points
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- Figure 30: Other deal-seeking behavior, by parental status, May 2016
- In their words
Shopping Time Frame
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- Season begins much earlier than Thanksgiving
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- Figure 31: Attitudes related to preferred shopping time frames, by gender, May 2016
- The “power period” is changing
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- Figure 32: Attitudes related to shopping on key days, May 2016
- In their words
- I’m all in
- I steer clear
- Shopping process extends post-holiday
Attitudes toward Winter Holiday Shopping
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- Younger generations are primed to spend more
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- Figure 33: Anticipated spending, by key demographics, May 2016
- Balancing the right gift with the budget
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- Figure 34: Importance of finding right gift versus staying within budget, by household income, May 2016
- Tis the season to gift myself
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- Figure 35: Self-gifting tendency, May 2016
- What are consumers willing to pay more for?
- Credit cards most common form of payment
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- Figure 36: Preferred payment method for holiday purchases, by age and household income, May 2016
- Explaining their preferred payment methods
- Cash preferred
- Credit cards preferred
Holiday Shopping Desired Improvements
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- Free goes a long way
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- Figure 37: Holiday shopping improvements, May 2016
- Older generations appreciate being rewarded for their loyalty
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- Figure 38: Select holiday shopping improvements, by generation, May 2016
- Don’t underestimate the small things
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- Figure 39: Select holiday shopping improvements, by race and Hispanic origin, May 2016
- What about customization options?
- Definitely a factor
- Nice to have
- Not a factor
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Consumer survey data
- Consumer qualitative research
- Direct marketing creative
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
- Terms
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 40: Total US retail sales* in November and December, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2006-16
- Figure 41: Anticipated average expenditures for winter holidays, at current prices, 2010-15
- Figure 42: Anticipated winter holiday expenditures on gifts versus other items, in current dollars, 2010-15
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- Figure 43: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2004-14
- Figure 44: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
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- Figure 45: Length of the holiday shopping season, 2005-16
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Appendix – Consumer
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- Figure 46: US retail sales during November and December 2015 combined, by device/platform
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- Figure 47: When last holiday gifts will be purchased, October 2015
- Additional qualitative data
- Before Thanksgiving
- Around Thanksgiving or after
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