Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The issues
- Sales forecast to increase further through 2021
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- Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fruit, at current prices, 2010-20
- Cans/jars suffer from processed perception
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- Figure 2: Total US retail sales and forecast of canned/jarred fruit, at current prices, 2011-21
- Fruit consumption widespread, particularly fresh options
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- Figure 3: Correspondence analysis – Fruit purchase, May 2016
- The opportunities
- Fruit capitalizing on healthy reputation
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- Figure 4: Opinions of health, April 2016
- Frozen options serving as smoothie bases
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- Figure 5: Juice, juice drink, smoothie consumption, by households with children, September 2015
- What it means
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Fruit continues strong sales growth
- Fresh dominates while frozen heats up
- Consumption levels suggest the category is approaching maturity
Market Size and Forecast
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- Fruit market nears $50 billion mark
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- Figure 6: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of fruit, at current prices, 2010-20
- Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of fruit, at current prices, 2011-21
Market Breakdown
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- Fresh dominates fruit sales; other segments combine for single-digit market share
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- Figure 8: Sales of fruit, in millions, by segment, 2016 (est.)
- Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of fruit, by segment, at current prices, 2011-21
- Fresh fruit demonstrating consistent growth
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- Figure 10: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh fruit, at current prices, 2011-21
- Supermarkets maintain lion’s share of fruit sales; other channels emerging
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- Figure 11: Total US retail sales of fruit, by channel, at current prices, 2011-16
Market Factors
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- Fruit consumption could offset obesity
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- Figure 12: Trends in obesity prevalence among adults aged 20 and over (age-adjusted) and youth aged 2-19 years: US, 1999-2000 through 2013-14
- Children falling short in fruit consumption
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- Figure 13: Population of kids aged 6-11 and 12-17, by race or Hispanic origin, in thousands, 2010-20
Key Players – What You Need to Know
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- Opportunity to capitalize on fruit as a snack
- Private label comprises sizable share of fruit market
- Key potential for variety of fruit as smoothie bases
Company Sales of Fruit
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- Dole, Del Monte maintain brand positions, while consumers increasingly turn to private label
- Brand sales of fruit
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- Figure 14: MULO sales of fruit, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
What’s Working?
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- Frozen options capitalize on quick-frozen’s attributes
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- Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen fruit, at current prices, 2011-21
- Smaller, private label brands leverage local perception
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- Figure 16: Branded versus private label fruit introductions in North America, 2011-15
- Figure 17: Frozen fruit launches
- Frozen options serving as smoothie bases
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- Figure 18: Smoothie-base fruit launches
- Figure 19: Juice, juice drink, smoothie consumption, by households with children, September 2015
- Fruit launches leveraging vitamin advantages
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- Figure 20: Bard Valley natural delights
- Figure 21: Jasper Wyman & Son Frozen Triple Berry Blend
What’s Struggling?
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- Cans/jars suffer from processed perception
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- Figure 22: Total US retail sales and forecast of canned/jarred fruit, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 23: Storage format of North American fruit introductions, 2011-16
What’s Next?
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- Packaging innovation could leverage snacking, sustainable attributes
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- Figure 24: Top claims for North American fruit introductions 2012-15
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Widespread fruit consumption
- Millennials consume diversity of fruit
- Fresh capitalizing on positive health perception
- Fresh fruit benefits from a perception of being local
- Longer shelf-life appeals even to fresh fruit consumers
- Communicating fruit’s nutritional information
Fruit Purchase
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- Fruit consumption widespread, particularly fresh options
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- Figure 25: Fruit purchase, April 2016
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- Figure 26: Fruit (berries) purchase, April 2016
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- Figure 27: Fruit (melon, tropical fruit) purchase, April 2016
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- Figure 28: Correspondence analysis – Fruit purchase, May 2016
- Potential to grow fruit could stem from reaching parents
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- Figure 29: Fresh fruit purchase, by generations, April 2016
- Parents more likely to turn to dried fruit
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- Figure 30: Dried fruit purchase, by parental status with children in household, April 2016
- Jarred fruit resonates more strongly with Hispanic consumers
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- Figure 31: Jarred fruit purchase, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
Purchase of Other Fruit
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- Just under half of consumers eat avocado
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- Figure 32: Purchase of other fruit, April 2016
- Millennials consume diversity of fruit types
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- Figure 33: Purchase of other fruit, by generation, April 2016
- Hispanics much more likely to consume a diversity of fruit
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- Figure 34: Purchase of other fruit, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
Attributes Describing Fruit Formats
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- Potential for frozen, dried options
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- Figure 35: Fruit’s positive attributes, April 2016
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- Figure 36: Fruit’s negative attributes, April 2016
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- Figure 37: Correspondence analysis – Fruit attributes, May 2016
- Prepackaged forms face generally negative regard
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- Figure 38: Prepackaged fruit attributes, by generations, April 2016
- Parents appreciate prepackaged’s positives
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- Figure 39: Prepackaged fruit attributes, by parental status by gender with children in household, April 2016
- Prepackaged fruit’s potential for Hispanic consumers
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- Figure 40: Prepackaged fruit attributes, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
Opinions of Health and Fruit
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- Fruit capitalizing on healthy reputation
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- Figure 41: Opinions of health, April 2016
- Local freshness resonates particularly with Boomers and older consumers
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- Figure 42: Opinions of health, by generation, April 2016
- Parents embracing organic
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- Figure 43: Opinions of health, by parental status by gender with children in household, April 2016
- Organic claims and fruit purchasers
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- Figure 44: Opinions of health/natural, by fruit purchase format, April 2016
- Hispanic consumers turning to fruit out of healthy expectations
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- Figure 45: Opinions of health, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
Shopping for Fruit
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- Potential for fruit’s snack positioning
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- Figure 46: Fruit shopping/purchase opinions, April 2016
- Sweet potential to grow fruit among younger consumers
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- Figure 47: Fruit shopping/purchase opinions, by generation, April 2016
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- Figure 48: Fruit shopping/purchase opinions, by generation, April 2016
- Opportunity for fruit as a snack among parents of young children
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- Figure 49: Fruit shopping/purchase opinions, by presence of children in household, April 2016
- Hispanics could embrace new fruit juice possibilities
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- Figure 50: Fruit shopping/purchase opinions, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
Information Source for Fruit
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- Consumers largely turn to new media for fruit information
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- Figure 51: Information source, April 2016
- New media to reach younger consumers, older consumers appear uninterested in fruit’s nutritional details
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- Figure 52: Information source, by generation, April 2016
- Hispanics more likely to seek fruit’s nutritional information
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- Figure 53: Information source, by Hispanic origin, April 2016
- New media could expand jar/can appreciation
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- Figure 54: Information source, by fruit purchase format, April 2016
Appendix – Data Sources and Abbreviations
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- Data sources
- Sales data
- Fan chart forecast
- Consumer survey data
- Abbreviations and terms
- Abbreviations
Appendix – Market
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- Figure 55: Total US sales and forecast of fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of fresh fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of canned/jarred fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of frozen fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
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- Figure 59: Total US retail sales and forecast of dried fruit, at current prices, 2011-21
- Figure 60: Total US retail sales and forecast of dried fruit, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2011-21
- Figure 61: Total US retail sales of fruit, by channel, at current prices, 2014 and 2016
- Figure 62: US supermarket sales of fruit, at current prices, 2011-16
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- Figure 63: US sales of fruit through other retail channels, at current prices, 2011-16
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Appendix – Key Players
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- Figure 64: MULO sales of dried fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
- Figure 65: MULO sales of frozen fruit, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
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- Figure 66: MULO sales of canned and jarred fruit by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015 and 2016
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Correspondence Analysis – Methodology
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- Figure 67: Fruit purchase, May 2016
- Figure 68: Fruit attributes, May 2016
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