Table of Contents
Executive Summary
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- The market
- Demand bounces back in past two years
- Market forecast to continue trend of growth
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- Figure 1: Forecast of winter holidays abroad market volume, 2015/16-2020/21
- Key players
- TUI and Thomas Cook are two main winter package operators
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- Figure 2: Company market volumes in winter package holidays abroad, 2015/16
- The consumer
- Winter holiday penetration is around two thirds the level of summer holidays
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- Figure 3: Types of holidays taken/booked in 12 months since 1 April 2015, March 2016
- City breaks are most popular winter holiday
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- Figure 4: Types of holiday taken – Winter versus summer, March 2016
- Potential to grow numbers going on winter holidays every year
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- Figure 5: How often people take winter holidays, March 2016
- Retired most able to leave at short notice but harder to target
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- Figure 6: Consumer behaviour and intentions relating to winter holidays abroad, March 2016
- Spanish territories are most popular European winter destinations
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- Figure 7: European winter holiday destinations visited in 2015/16, March 2016
- Nine in ten plan to visit Europe again for winter holiday in 2016/17
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- Figure 8: European winter holiday destinations visiting intentions for 2016/17, March 2016
- US is most popular intended winter destination for 2016/17 by far
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- Figure 9: Non-European winter holiday destinations visiting intentions for 2016/17, March 2016
- What we think
Issues and Insights
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- What might encourage Millennials to take more winter holidays?
- The facts
- The implications
- How is concern about political instability in the Middle East/North Africa region likely to impact on the winter holiday market?
- The facts
- The implications
The Market – What You Need to Know
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- Demand bounces back in past two years
- Market forecast to continue trend of growth
- October is peak winter month
- Independent trips most popular but packages come back into vogue
- Short-haul dominant but signs of renewed growth in long-haul
- Spain set to benefit further from other countries’ troubles
- Over-45s are the bedrock of the winter market
- Skiing holidays starting to see growth but weather is working against them
- Overseas holidays recovery boosts winter segment
Market Size and Forecast
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- Demand bounces back in past two years
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- Figure 10: Winter holidays abroad, volume, value and average spend, 2010/11-2020/21
- Forecast
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- Figure 11: Forecast of winter holidays abroad market volume, 2015/16-2020/21
- Figure 12: Forecast of winter holidays abroad market value, 2015/16-2020/21
- Forecast methodology
Market Segmentation
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- October is most popular month for winter holidays abroad
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- Figure 13: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by month, percentage analysis, 2012/13-2014/15
- Majority of winter trips are independent
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- Figure 14: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by package vs independent, percentage analysis, 2012/13-2014/15
- Winter holidays tend to be shorter
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- Figure 15: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by duration, percentage analysis, 2012/13-2014/15
- Short-haul dominant but signs of renewed growth in long-haul
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- Figure 16: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by short-haul vs long-haul, percentage analysis, 2012/13-2014/15
- Spain set to benefit further from other countries’ troubles
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- Figure 17: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by destination country, 2014/15
- Over-45s are the bedrock of the winter market
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- Figure 18: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by age, percentage analysis, 2012/13-2014/15
- Skiing holidays starting to see growth but weather is working against them
Channels to Market
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- Online continues to grow share of winter bookings
Market Drivers
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- Overseas holidays recovery boosts winter segment
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- Figure 19: Overseas holidays volume and value trends, 2010-15
- Political unrest and terrorism force operators to rebalance winter holiday programmes
- Fuel price falls provide small boost to market
- Eurozone was most affordable place to visit in 2015
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- Figure 20: Trends in Sterling exchange rate vs major winter destination currencies, 2010-16
- Stricter school absence rules continue to impact family market
- APD changes boost long-haul and family trips
Companies and Brands – What You Need to Know
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- TUI and Thomas Cook are two main winter package operators
- Belleair specifically targets older winter holidaymakers
- Operators seek to capitalise on interest in Northern Lights
- easyJet looks to capitalise on urge for adventure
- Ski-related apps focus on safety, location and social aspects
Market Share
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- TUI and Thomas Cook are two main winter package operators
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- Figure 21: Company market volume shares in winter package holidays abroad, 2015/16
Launch Activity and Innovation
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- Belleair specifically targets older winter holidaymakers
- Sweden seeks to capitalise on interest in Northern Lights…
- …as do Iceland…
- …Finland and Norway
- easyJet looks to capitalise on urge for adventure
- Winter sun’s westward shift continues
- Abu Dhabi aims to position itself as a winter sun destination
- Ski-related apps focus on safety, location and social aspects
The Consumer – What You Need to Know
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- Winter holiday penetration is around two thirds the level of summer holidays
- Scope for increasing loyalty?
- City breaks are most popular winter holiday
- Older consumers favour beaches over culture
- Potential to grow numbers going on winter holidays every year
- Retired most able to leave at short notice but harder to target
- Spanish territories are most popular European winter destinations
- Nine in ten plan to visit Europe again for winter holiday in 2016/17
- US is most popular intended winter destination for 2016/17 by far
Winter versus Summer Holidays
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- Winter holiday penetration is around two thirds the level of summer holidays
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- Figure 22: Types of holidays taken/booked in 12 months since 1 April 2015, March 2016
- Scope for increasing loyalty?
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- Figure 23: Combinations of holidays taken with winter holidays abroad, March 2016
Types of Holiday Taken – Winter vs Summer
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- City breaks are most popular winter holiday
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- Figure 24: Types of holiday taken – Winter versus summer, March 2016
- Older consumers favour beaches over culture
- 16-24s keen on last-minute deals
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- Figure 25: Types of winter holiday taken/booked, by age, March 2016
- ‘Medium-haul’ destinations pushing up proportion of longer city breaks
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- Figure 26: Types of winter holiday taken/booked, by duration of winter holiday, March 2016
- An opportunity to use partnerships to build loyalty?
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- Figure 27: Multiple types of winter holidays taken, March 2016
How Often People Take Winter Holidays
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- Potential to grow numbers going every year
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- Figure 28: How often people take winter holidays, March 2016
- Over-55s have finances and flexibility to take regular winter holidays
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- Figure 29: People who take winter holidays regularly, by age, March 2016
Consumer Behaviour and Intentions
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- Retired most able to leave at short notice but harder to target
- Younger more open to signing up to deals and sharing preferences
- Money back for days without sun?
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- Figure 30: Consumer behaviour and intentions relating to winter holidays abroad, March 2016
European Winter Holiday Destinations Visited
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- Spanish territories are most popular European winter destinations
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- Figure 31: European winter holiday destinations visited/planned to visit in 2015/16, March 2016
- Canaries tops for beach holidays
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- Figure 32: Types of winter holidays taken, by European winter holiday destinations visited in 2015/16, March 2016
- Potential for more variety in snowsports resorts?
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- Figure 33: Consumer behaviour and intentions relating to winter holidays abroad, by European winter holiday destinations visited in 2015/16, March 2016
European Winter Holiday Destination Visiting Intentions
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- Nine in ten plan to visit Europe again for winter holiday in 2016/17
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- Figure 34: European winter holiday destinations visiting intentions for 2016/17, March 2016
- France suffers terrorism hangover?
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- Figure 35: Comparison of countries visited in 2015/16 with those planned to visit or seriously considering for 2016/17, March 2016
Non-European Winter Holiday Destination Visiting Intentions
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- US is most popular intended winter destination for 2016/17 by far
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- Figure 36: Non-European winter holiday destinations visiting intentions for 2016/17, March 2016
Appendix – Data Sources, Abbreviations and Supporting Information
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- Abbreviations
- Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market Size and Forecast
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- Figure 37: Forecast of winter holidays abroad market volume, 2015/16-2020/21
- Figure 38: Forecast of winter holidays abroad market value, 2015/16-2020/21
- Forecast Methodology
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Appendix – Market Segmentation
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- Figure 39: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by month, 2012/13-2014/15
- Figure 40: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by package vs independent, 2012/13-2014/15
- Figure 41: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by duration, percentage analysis, 2012/13-2014/15
- Figure 42: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by short-haul vs long-haul, percentage analysis, 2012/13-2014/15
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- Figure 43: Winter holidays abroad, market volume, by age, percentage analysis, 2012/13-2014/15
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